MikeC
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The wave northeast of the Caribbean (97L) is moving toward the west and is lacking spin, and is in overall bad conditions for development now, but that may change later in the week.
Here's the place to talk about long range models, and make educated guesses as to where it may go, and how strong it may be.
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MikeC
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First real model runs keep it further south, but it's too early to tell. intensity wise, the SHIPS model is shooting this up to hurricane late in the week.
the westerly track of the early models with the hint of southward motion isn't all that unlikely, but it's probably too far south.
It the system were to approach Florida it would be over the weekend.
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art tampa
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Dont like the few models putting this close to Tampa, this weekend mike get interesting
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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97L is certainly becoming more interesting with an increasing number of model support. Puerto Rico radar seems to show some evidence of a weak center of circulation just off the N.E. tip of the island. Good thing about current location is the amount of available data ( and radar ) to better monitor incremental changes to the environment. Should development occur and a WNW motion ensue as most model guidance would indicate, sure will be interesting for Florida, given a potential developing system already "in the alley".
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WesnWylie
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I'm not buying into the track that the northernmost models show as far as a double landfall
in Florida (the first in south central Florida and the second in the panhandle). I have to side
with the BAM models with taking it into Florida and then reemerging it into the Northern GOM.
I just think that the northernmost models are not realizing the full effect that the upper-level ridge
will have on this potential system
Check out the poll below  .
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MikeC
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After looking at some more information today, I've got to give some credence to the possibility of a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane hitting Florida Friday/Saturday. Likely South Florida or the Keys, but Central Florida is a possibility too.
I wish this was a bit better developed to get a better feel in some ways, but glad it isn't.
In short odds are about evenly split between a tropical/hurricane system making landfall right now or not, which is higher than I would like for something like this.
I'd like more time for trends, but I don't like what I'm seeing so far. Recon tomorrow afternoon will help.
The good news, it's 50/50, and I'm hoping for the system to stay disorganized.
The other 50% is the upper low, if it doesn't move out of the way it'll eat the system up, and keep it from developing.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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When you say 'but I don`t like what I`m seeing' .It scares me a bit. I trust you guys here in the Melboune Fla. I can`t wait for your post tomorrow, I have three weddings , 100 Italian teen agers and a hotel full of leisure guests to make happy this weekend. A storm will change everything in a quick way and I like to to keep these people educated on what might happen in the next few days Thanks for your help.........We need rain not wind.
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MikeC
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There has been a preliminary official track released which takes it just south of Miami, giver or take a hundred miles or so. So landfall, at this time, is more likely in South Florida. It has not developed yet, so it's too early to say otherwise.
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MikeC
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Errors that far out can be 150-200 miles, though (Either direction)
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WeatherNut
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I'm feeling more of the southern track through the keys, which is not good news for the northern gulf since that means less land interaction
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
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The trends are back in the right direction this morning, and it's now more likely this system won't amount to as much (as rather than 50/50 yesterday)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Great... on this track it (whatever IT is) will go virtually right over my condo in Ft. Myers...IT may be nothing but the apex of the wave...however that could be stormy in any case.
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doug
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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will the high pressure keep this system on a westward coarse through the gulf.
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WesnWylie
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The latest models of the 12Z round have come out and focus on a Texas/Louisiana border landfall. The models will change with the coming days, but I think a landfall west of the Mississppi River appears likely. I credit a more westerly course to the upper-low north of the future Bonnie. I have created another poll below.
I did not make the poll more specific due to the landfall being so far out. Any more specific would be too much speculation at this point.
Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Jul 22 2010 01:25 PM)
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MikeC
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The models were all initialized wrong (Too far southwest of the center), and with the formation of the LLC, pretty much all of them are not worth anything. The next run is what I want to see.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Hold on a moment...the models also initialized that upper low and Mike, I even fell for it. There are many who can...you know that analyst, he's wrong...I did make a note at how rapid the shear has reduced and we all know intensity forecasting is next to impossible. We all have to remind ourselves that depressions and models aren't kissing cousins. I really thought this system was dead until it entered the GOM. Frankly, I feel like a kid with his hand caught in the candy jar...busted.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Fri Jul 23 2010 12:12 AM)
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wo;;x
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Seems like it's been shifted north...
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Rick99
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Last few frames of WV show more and more spiral bands. Well north of the forecast. Long range Miami radar too. And looks centered on the convection, not SW.
And the intensity forcasts have dramatically underestimated it up to now.
And looks like it's headed north of Miami if anything.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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I agree with you; almost looking like a nice coma on sat. But the recon Storm Tracker just posted has the center well to the SW, almost out from under all of the convection on satellite.
Quote:
appears center is near
Time: 05:57:00Z
Coordinates: 23.7N 77.8833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,573 meters (~ 5,161 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1009.5 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
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Yep, and people forget the water in the everglades is warmer than the ocean. Sometimes Hurricanes go across with very little loss of power.
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