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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #89678 - Fri Sep 24 2010 12:09 PM

It's very possible, and actually increasingly likely.

It resembles a western pacific monsoon pattern than anything, and whatever develops from it could form a large area of rain and winds. It may not be purely tropical.



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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #89680 - Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM

Quote:

Is this the potential second system that some of the models are trying to show?






Yep, my thoughts exactly. Of course the convection in the S. Central Caribbean is firing up nicely, but over the last few frames, I've noticed what I thought was actually a small area of turning ( mid level ? ) right on or just inside the coastline of Northeastern Venezuela. Either way, the spacing would seem more or less probable for whatever wave that came after Matthew, might be near this longitude. It would be pretty odd to see "our side of the world", that quickly develop a 2nd tropical cyclone - that fast. This would seem to fit the GFS's recent days of runs insistence of a 2nd low forming in relative close proximity to Matthew ( obviously much closer had Matthew stalled off the C. America coastline ).

With the recent global model's insistence I'm nearly convinced at this point that we'll soon see Nicole emerge from the Caribbean. A new system could of course just as easily be farther south than where the Euro/GFS solutions were indicating that Matthew might strike South Florida ( from Yucatan area ). Should newly developed cyclogenesis truly occur, but perhaps south ( or well south ) of 20 latitude, than it would seem clear that the impact of such timing and steering might render the current Euro/GFS solution of a South Florida impact to be "bogus". It remains to be seen if such a threat might once again exist next week, or it that threat might be placed elsewhere altogether.


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MichaelA
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #89684 - Fri Sep 24 2010 05:58 PM

There is also a small ULL over Hispaniola which is imparting some shear over the northern edge of that area, but it appears that there is some upper level divergence farther South. I don't see any organization or circulation in the region yet, but I believe it needs to be watched over the next few days.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #89685 - Fri Sep 24 2010 06:00 PM

As MikeC mentioned above, the low pressure system that may form over the Caribbean later in the week may not be fully tropical, at least in the sense of being a typical tropical storm/hurricane. While the models can't fully resolve a hurricane, the GFS and ECMWF are capable of producing compact tropical cyclones of hurricane strength. Neither of those models do that with the potential Caribbean system... rather the low pressure they develop is a order of magnitude larger than a typical tropical storm and the pressure gradient is pretty flat (rather than ramping up quickly near the center). You can also tell from the forecast precip pattern that it is not a typical tropical cyclone, with no well-defined QPF bullseyes near the center. Anything that gets as far north as FL or the GOM may also become involved with a cold front and undergo some baroclinic interaction.

This is not to say that a true tropical cyclone (of the type that NHC is concerned with) could not form, but it looks like it would be a case of a smaller-scale vortex developing from or within a broad low pressure area, rather than the usual case of a small-scale disturbance growing upscale into a tropical cyclone.

Also, while it seems likely that Matthew will dissipate over land, that can't be taken for granted at this point. The forecast becomes even more complex if that hangs around in some form.


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berrywr
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Reged: Fri
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #89686 - Fri Sep 24 2010 06:17 PM

This is the problem with Matthew. Honduras is not flat except along the coast; it's mountainous. Where the shades of grey begin are when Matthew's mid level center decouples from it's surface and low level center. The mid level center should continue west and possibly emerge on the Pacific side. It is the low level center and where it goes that decide if it's Matthew that re-emerges into the Caribbean, a combination of both systems; Matthew's low level circulation and the disturbance farther to the east depicted on satellite and models up to 500 millibars. I poured over the 12Z package today and I think it will be Nicole, not Matthew. Whatever develops is likely to strike the US given the pattern shift and Typhoon Malakas becoming a powerful post-Tropical system in the Gulf of Alaska where a formidable system is now. The downstream amplification of the W US ridge and downstream cutoff low should pull Nicole poleward and for the moment the models are over the place on position including the GFS and a strike on the FL panhandle in 8 days....that's a long way off between now and then. The ECMWF suggests it's Matthew that will strike FL in 6 days. I share Thunderbird12's reasoning; I can't dismiss the real possibility that this system may very well be subtropical or post-Tropical given the synoptic features that will be in play given the depth of the cutoff low over the Mid-South late this weekend and early next week. Initially it is expected to move fairly slow across the South before lifting NE.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Sep 24 2010 06:24 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #89687 - Fri Sep 24 2010 06:30 PM

With this complex pattern, it may be 48 hours or more before the mystery energy that is seen in the models is shown to be Matthew or from someplace else. I am starting to think that it will be a case of Matthew raining itself out over land (as the NHC track implies) and the flag being taken up by another low pressure system. South Florida may end up being the focal point the middle of next week as I think that any development is more likely to be further east than what the models are showing. However, it really seems to be just as clear as Mississippi mud right now.

--------------------
Jim


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WesnWylie
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Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Rasvar]
      #89688 - Fri Sep 24 2010 07:18 PM

The latest (18z) GFS shows what would be Nicole making landfall in South Florida, crossing over the state, moving into the Northern GOM, and then inland over Texas. This would be very interesting if this were to actually occur. Of course, the next run of the GFS will likely show something different, but what the models continue showing is that the Tropics will continue to stay active for the next few weeks.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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