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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Richard Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #89949 - Thu Oct 21 2010 03:30 PM

Could you please give me your guesstimate of the chances of Richard both recurving towards Florida AND making landfall in Florida as a hurricane? I understand that this is way too early to call, but I want to check with you whether my gut feeling that the chances of BOTH of these happening in sequence are rather low.

Thanks!

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 21 2010 03:56 PM)


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #89950 - Thu Oct 21 2010 04:32 PM

Quote:

Highest chances are probably closer to the panhandle right now (and weaker due to shear), but it's more in a flux than usual.




Thanks a lot Mike! I'm sure hoping/expecting a late-season death-by-shear event from Richard, but sure wish this Gulf Coast trof wasn't leaving...


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rgd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #89951 - Thu Oct 21 2010 04:42 PM

If you read the 5pm discussion on this storm the models have shifted west now then the east which they were.

All in all it will be a few days before we can say ANYTHING about where it is gonna go.And that means from Florida to texas to nowhere.Here is the 5pm part i am talking about.



Tropical Storm Richard Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2010




The best estimate of current motion is about 155/3. A trough over
the western Atlantic and northwestern Caribbean has been steering
the system slowly southeastward during the past day or so.
However... this trough is in the process of lifting out of the
area...which will allow a ridge to build over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the models are in reasonable agreement on the storm
eventually turning back toward the west in a day or so...they are
in rather poor agreement after that time due to varying ridge
strengths over the Gulf of Mexico. All of the forecast guidance has
shifted well toward the left...after moving toward the right
overnight. Given the erratic behavior of the model guidance...a
luxury the official forecast does not have...this is a low
confidence track forecast. The model consensus is actually now in
good agreement with the previous NHC track...and little change will
be made to the NHC forecast. The new 48-hour forecast point is
close enough to Honduras to warrant a tropical storm watch.

Edited by rgd (Thu Oct 21 2010 04:46 PM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #89953 - Thu Oct 21 2010 09:34 PM

forecast track aside, +15kts h48-72, followed by -40kts h72-96 makes a good nickname for this system is "tricky dick"

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #89955 - Fri Oct 22 2010 10:47 AM

Good Morning:
Observations this morning are that the system is drifting slowly just north of due west, and is consolidating a bit, so stregthening is likely. Also the track seems to be getting set up to be into the Yucatan /Mexico as the high building in from the NW increases in strength. I don't see this as a threat to Florida or any US mainland.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #89957 - Fri Oct 22 2010 11:56 AM

Well, not an immediate threat, but once the system enters the GOM, it has to either dissipate or it will hit the US mainland at some point along the Gulf coast. Whether that is as a TD, TS, hurricane or simply a baroclinic low on a front remains to be seen. At the rate things are developing and the slow movement, we won't see a landfall threat for the next 5 - 7 days out.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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new
Unregistered




Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #89958 - Fri Oct 22 2010 12:42 PM

looking at the current loop below , i am guessing that eather the center reformed north of what the current forcast track is or he took a jump north. Any one else see this? am i wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-bd.html


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: new]
      #89959 - Fri Oct 22 2010 12:55 PM

Yes, even the center fix on the 11 AM advisory is North of the forecast track position. The track overlay on the sat loops is initialized at 22/1200Z (22/0800 EDT). It does look like they've adjusted the track slightly for the short term to the 11 AM fix on the main 3 and 5 day forecast graphic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #89960 - Fri Oct 22 2010 02:42 PM

Richard, I ran through the models and not many really prolong the system after the Yucatan.
The current runs certainly are not as dramatic as yesterday's GFDL or HWRF. GFS which was the first to pick up on this last week, and earlier this week did allow intrusion north of 21N, now sends it over Mexico and dissapates it. It has disappated it now consistently for two days. ECMWF also dissapates the system toward the end. In my opinion these two models have been most consistently accurate all year. Hence my opinion that the system will not last long enough into the Gulf to be considered a tropical cyclone strike upon the mainland.

--------------------
doug


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Edski
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA 28.08N 82.74W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #89961 - Fri Oct 22 2010 05:33 PM

That's the general feeling I have gotten too over the last couple days - fizzles out over southern Mexico. Seems that the models are a bit more clustered today.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: TD 19 Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #89962 - Sat Oct 23 2010 02:34 AM

Looking at model data this evening there will be two windows of opportunity; one right now and the next in about 5 days as ridging retrogrades from east to west and sets up shop over the GOM. It's whether Richard will be viable when the second opportunity becomes available. The last couple of systems that moved over the Yucatan did not weaken as rapid as models or NHC predicted and that will have to be watched as well. We're just going to have to wait and see what emerges in the GOM in a few days and how strong or weak Richard is at that point in time. It is late October and zonal flow will be over the USA and the westerlies are now as south as the Northern GOM.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Richard Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #89964 - Sat Oct 23 2010 01:28 PM

As of the 11AM Richard Forecast Discussion #11, NHC notes that Richard is "strengthening quickly."

While not ideal, dry air entrainment has nearly come to an end, with shear also dropping to levels often associated with conditions that can favor rapidly intensifying cyclones. Environmental conditions for continued intensification are improving this weekend, and given that Richard is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it may keep having a tendency to respond fairly quickly to changes in its environment.

Richard has a window this weekend to strengthen more than currently forecast prior to landfall, and impact a small area significantly, depending on exactly where it goes, due to very high wind, and not just complications from rain.

This region is accustomed to very heavy rains during the summer and fall. In Belize City for example, October tends to be the wettest month of the year. As such, populations in this region may not be taken by surprise when a very heavy rain comes through. But residents may not be so prepared for a small, concentrated area of very high winds, which are likely to occur even with Richard not exceeding the current official forecast of about 70 knots around time of landfall.

This is definitely something those in Richard's forecast track may want to keep in mind when starting to make arrangements for the potential of a direct hit, which they should probably now be doing, just in case.


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