F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92794 - Sat Jun 23 2012 04:34 PM

Recon is finding some pretty good winds right now, Debby may initialize around 50mph winds.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92795 - Sat Jun 23 2012 04:36 PM

Quote:

NHC must be reading your posts. Just kidding.




LOL, Dan - That was funny.....,

Now, to present circumstances - Could someone please raise the "HypeScale" to something closer to perhaps to 8.5 (tongue firmly placed in cheek) ?? Seriously though, I see the most recent LLC as just one more transient center destined to troll around and further detach itself from the parent mid level center, and unwind as the previous low level swirls did. I see a more dominant center possibly forming under the convection just south of 27N / 86W. I could be wrong about the current LLC and could be wrong about the next LLC but have to believe is the reason that NHC has not yet officially announced a first advisory on this system.

Per your point regarding us NOT YET having "Debbie" (despite the upgrade warning as caused by Best Track), is due to the present dynamics of 96L as described in the very text that has been posted here from the Marine Weather Discussion in your prior post.

So far I have read here ( and other discussion boards ), that ATCF, Dennis Phillips - ABC News, the Navy, & "Best Track"-Hurricane Reasearch Div. have all announced Debbie (sorry, or Debby?) has been annointed.

Not to split hairs over terminology between Subtropical or tropical, however I also wonder if taken into account by NHC ( or more specifically Lixion Avila ) is the near term risk of immediately upgrading this system based on recon, to only have a naked swirl eventually move westward and unwind. Given the the persistance of low level features being spit out and the mid level circulation outrunning a departed low level feature I think they are congnicent of the public's perception of "blown forecasts" which may occur due to the process of reformation of a developing or marginal cyclone.

Thats not to say that they will not classify this as T.S. Debby, but perhaps are in the process of determining if subtropical and/or how to carefully word forecast reasoning. There are reasons for the politics and even if most of us here reading the various posts and updates DO comprehend the dynamics of Tropical Cyclone genesis, the general public certainly does not. NHC is probably being very careful to decide what/how to classify 96L given the reality of an existing low level center with at least tropical depression force winds, yet potentially "poof" it may be gone in 2-4 hours until perhaps a new low develops - or does not develop.

I just heard on another discussion board that Bastardi (formerly Accuweather I think) just tweeted this could be at least a Cat. 2 and on the Texas coast in a matter of days. Well he could very well be right, but contrary to my own thoughts a few days ago, I don't think so.

Regardless, NHC to my knowledge has yet to establish an official advisory and already there are those calling this Tropical Storm Debby and how bad it might be. We're jumping the gun folks!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NPR16
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: West Coast Florida
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92796 - Sat Jun 23 2012 04:46 PM

Very Good Post. The best I have read anywhere all day.

--------------------
Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92798 - Sat Jun 23 2012 05:08 PM

Invest 96L is indeed Tropical Storm Debby, but remember, this is not a contest. I'd rather be last and correct than first and wrong. Our hope is to reduce hype rather than create it.

Upper level westerly shear has exposed the center with all of the convection displaced to the east. The exposed center is now drifting to the south southwest - although a slow forward drift to the north is forecast by NHC. Probably very little motion of any significance for the next couple of days.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92799 - Sat Jun 23 2012 05:31 PM

W'net: indeed, IMO, the LLC identified is giving way to one that is more substantial to its ene...closer to 26.5/87...this does have some convection support on the north and east... it seems to be the same "center" id'd by Mike last evening... just along the left edge of the convection.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92800 - Sat Jun 23 2012 05:57 PM Attachment (167 downloads)

Recon is showing what looks to be multiple LLCs. If you look at the last three "centers" found, they are no where near each other, and also not consistent with the overall motion on IR. Huge discrepancies in a very short time.

See screenshot:




Full Size image

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 08:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92801 - Sat Jun 23 2012 06:04 PM

Yep, in fact now looking at the latest IR, I might almost make a case for a point exactly 1 degree east of the coord.'s you indicated, and myself believe could be under the newest "burst of convection" at 26.5 & 86.0. It really is hard to say and gotta give NHC their props for doing the job that they do.

That said, and with the current situation being as fluid as it is, than assuming that we don't start seeing some newly forming convection co-located with the advisory fix position, it sure will be interesting to see tomm.'s first visible Satellite pics.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #92802 - Sat Jun 23 2012 06:27 PM

Wow, your right?!! And just one other observation....., we've seen recon measure plenty of 270 degree (west) winds, and 315 degree winds, but oddly now that I am looking at your post cannot find any actual winds from the NNW to North.

This whole mess really seems more a mesoscale convective system than tropical storm for the moment. With the range of dynamics in play, would'nt it just be weird to have the present LLC truly rotate cyclonically back and under some newly forming MLC and just "bomb out" - dropping a quick 10 mb.s?? With the greater than normal spread of model solutions, the on-going evolution is really fascinating to watch.

That said, this really IS turning into a "paralysis of analysis"; i'm taking a break and getting some breakfast....., um I mean dinner.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92803 - Sat Jun 23 2012 07:12 PM

Ok, I'm lost. Just what is making the NHC forcast this for Texas?

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: SARASOTA
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92804 - Sat Jun 23 2012 07:31 PM

Yes, "the on-going evolution is really fascinating to watch", especially at the link MikeC added yesterday: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?130
I just wish there were a way to drop the blank frames from the loop...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #92805 - Sat Jun 23 2012 08:01 PM

Glen:

Several models are showing that track. But a couple models are showing an east track. And a couple are showing a north track. NHC had to provide some sort of guidance, and so they had to make an educated pick based on what they new at the time. We will not get "good" model guidance for around 12 hours. The next model run started, in a few hours, will be using the recon ingested data. When that model run is done in 9-12 hours, we should see some convergence in the models.

The only problem is the recon flight data is showing what appear to be multiple LLCs. We do not know which will become dominant, and if the model develops the wrong one, it's track will not match the actual storm path.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #92806 - Sat Jun 23 2012 08:57 PM

Quote:

Ok, I'm lost. Just what is making the NHC forcast this for Texas?




Thanks Random, I was wondering the same thing with the GFS not having budged in two days.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: kromdog]
      #92807 - Sat Jun 23 2012 10:06 PM

They are going with a stronger storm that moves west slowly over warm water.... they went with the Euro. Not an easy decision and one they can change at any time. Discussion in the 11pm should say a lot about how strong they are in believing their Western Solution.

A lot going on, that is why she is sitting there.

Meanwhile, until she wraps the majority of her convection around her and develops... it's a developing situation I think.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92808 - Sat Jun 23 2012 11:13 PM

The models have had a rough time all this week with 96L/ Debby.

The EURO wants to take Debby to Texas. Because she misses the trough and the Texas High steers her toward Texas. High pressure rotates clockwise and Debby will be on the SE Quadrant of the High so she moves west. That's the EURO version.

The GFS on the other hand has Debby being picked up by the trough and moving NE toward Florida.

The Canadian is somewhat in the middle. Toward the Central Gulf Coast. It has varied as far west as just east of Galveston, TX this week. AND it was much stronger than the EURO and GFS models.

I haven't checked the models today... so the above is what has been forecast this week. Yeah, I know. Shame on me. I was a bit more concerned with Where RECON would FIX 96L than I was with where she may go.

Steering currents at this time are rather weak and we could be watching Debby all week in the Northern GOM.

The current watches and warnings suffice for the next 48 hours. At that point the watches and/ or warnings will probably shift to the west. A little at a time.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92809 - Sat Jun 23 2012 11:29 PM

Today, Saturday's model run down. Using the 850mb vorticity run and the 12Z morning model run.

Canadian, meanders south of the Louisiana Coast and makes landfall in Mississippi.

Euro makes landfall in Corpus Christi, TX area.

GFDL, run as 96L, weak and landfalls in the Florida Big Bend area just east of Apalachicola,FL.

GFS slings off one vortice through the Big Bend area, and the main vortice crosses the Florida Peninsula just south of Tampa,FL.

HWRF brushes the Louisiana Coast and heads toward a landfall just south of Galveston,TX. Pressure of 981mb at landfall.
(That could equate to a Hurricane at landfall. The pressure/ wind relationship would justify a 94 mph Maximum possible wind speed.)

NOGAPS makes landfall in the Brownsville,TX area.

Now we can see why NHC is leaning toward a Texas landfall. All of the above are Model Projections and are 16 hours old at this time. But they give an idea of why the westward track forecast is more likely.

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 11:30 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92810 - Sat Jun 23 2012 11:55 PM

think the GFS is more viable than originally one would think tho would say it moves West eventually and slings off a vortex that develops towards the East...

or it's just picking up on competing centers...

hard call for them to make, if they have to make changes they will...nothing is carved in stone

curious to see next set of runs (we always say that i know but so true with this storm)

a door was left open in the discussion at 11 pm to make changes down the road if they are warranted

"MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. "

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92811 - Sun Jun 24 2012 12:07 AM

To add to what Daniel has shared above, the only major model to swing Debby across Florida and out to sea has been the GFS, and when you actually break down the GFS into its ensemble members, generally half of them actually take Debby west, not east.

Viewed in total, the vast majority of models take Debby west or northwest.

A few models want to toss a mid-range Tropical Storm Debby up into Louisiana or thereabouts, and then the consensus models, which also take Debby up into the deep south, are essentially just splitting the difference between the GFS and the EURO, and not selecting the middle Gulf coast because they see anything in particular that other models do not.

Generally, the models that anticipate Debby to be a deeper feature are the ones forecasting landfall between northeastern Mexico and the upper Texas coast.

Presently, it is expected that the upper level low in the northwestern GOM responsible for punishing Debby's western half with so much shear will dig southwest, and perhaps weaken, allowing a protective high to build in nicely aloft. Such a scenario would in theory support Debby becoming a significant hurricane, all else being equal.

Considering Debby's potential to become a large and potent hurricane, interests along the western Gulf will want to pay very close attention, and see if this is how things evolve over the next few days.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92812 - Sun Jun 24 2012 12:09 AM

Based on the latest satellite imagery it appears that the NE Quadrant is intensifying very well. We still have about 4 to 5 hours before Dmax, and that quadrant is looking nasty.

NHC Center position is denoted by the "X".



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #92813 - Sun Jun 24 2012 12:34 AM

A few notes here.... the funktop shows explosive development to the East of Debby

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

Several models seem to be coming closer and closer towards La being in play, whereas earlier models showed a straight beeline for Texas... watch changes and trends in models carefully.

WV shows a still hostile set up for development or deepening development at Debby as to where X marks the spot. That is why the Eastern side is doing better as conditions are riper there for intensification, however that is not where the semi naked center of Debby is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Debby is almost impossible to find on the WV loop, yet that wild ULL is where Debby is forecast to be down the road...

Obviously a very complex set of problems...not to mention possible fronts and other factors.

Lastly, hope we are not getting into a Irene situation where we keep tracking a naked center and the strong weather is doing major damage elsewhere. Until this system wraps the "weather" to the East into it's center of circulation we need to look at the WHOLE storm system as a weather maker...including areas and beaches far from the point of possible landfall that will get huge amounts of weather and possible flooding storm surge.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92814 - Sun Jun 24 2012 12:51 AM

These two Lightning trackers give a little bit more insight to what is happening offshore.

Waveland,MS Lightning

Crestview,FL Lightning


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 14 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 42973

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center