Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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With an Invest finally declared, it seems appropriate to start a Lounge on this system. Here is the place for your long range guesstimates on what this system will become (if anything) and where it might eventually go. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
ED
ADDED: Upgraded to TS Debby.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:47 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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As stated in the other forum...I am leaning toward a solution and think the way ot is to the NE. However, the ULL over N. Mexico is now in So. Texas; but, the short wave is still progressing SE'ly through the lower mid west. The surface feature is not moving much at this time, and how far north it drifts in the next 24-36 hours will determine if it stalls or catches the ride to the NE. Intensity: If westerly shear relaxes and it lingers over warm GOM waters it could get frisky, but to early to tell.
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doug
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I find it interesting that all of the talk has been leaning towards an Easterly solution...or NE across Florida but when the models come out in Invest manner...they are mostly going West.
Thinking this might change once we get better data from recon and a verifiable center.
Easily 50/50 odds on either track, so many factors that are so intangible right now.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Remember that the initial model runs are based on a weak system that would tend to be influenced by the low-level flow, i.e., easterlies shoving the weak system toward the west. If the system does intensify, the mid to upper level flow would have more of an influence on the eventual movement and the models would adjust to reflect that influence.
ED
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It could also reflect an Low Level and Upper level split.
Low level moves one way and upper level moves in another direction. My penny.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I hear that about stronger and weaker systems. It's a reason I have a problem with the model that shows it as a strong system moving west slowly.
Timing is everything.
Also, beginning to wonder how much of an effect the stronger ULL off the East Coast of Florida will have to do with the steering currents as that ULL seems stronger now than it has been...though I could be wrong.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
Sort of pops out today with a major spin.
Also, the dry air to the north of the storm seems to be filing in ... also a possible factor.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Texas
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I currently still like the west motion toward the texas coast at this time.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Such a fluid set up.
The funny part is I can see the reasoning for Texas but as it all begins to play out I see it moving more North indecisively. This is forecasted currently to be a slow storm ...that also is questionable as everything else.
12 hours ago the WV looked very different from it's current image.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=-12®ion=ea
Current Image... much stronger...
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ea
That front looks very strong right now, but am having problems believing it will stay strong the further south it gets.
It's all a differential question... when the temps are 100 a "cold front" looks cold, but the temps are not forecast to drop down back to where they were a week ago.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Its looking like a MLC is forming off the NE tip of the YP. Its also showing cirrus outflow setting up. If the low pressure center tucks itself under that this could ramp up a little more quickly. It also looks like an Anticyclone is setting up right over it
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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trofs this year have been digging south so it's possible Florida will be Game on.
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Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
Its looking like a MLC is forming off the NE tip of the YP. Its also showing cirrus outflow setting up. If the low pressure center tucks itself under that this could ramp up a little more quickly. It also looks like an Anticyclone is setting up right over it
WeatherNut, I think that mild, ghosting circulation may just be a weak MCV from the ongoing convective blowup over there. Best I can tell (and I can't tell much, because this is not a very well defined Invest, at all) it seems that the weak surface low is indeed now already in the process of tucking itself under a different MLC (which was actually a mid-level remnant of Hurricane Carlotta, first, before getting caught up in the broad trough), and the two look to have moved onshore in tandem.
Now seemingly onshore, in the short term, this synergism looks to be getting further aided and abetted by some more traditional diurnal thunderstorm development over land; however, if this process of combing the incipient LLC with that MLC coupled with deep convection continues, we could very well see #4 develop while just inland, assuming it doesn't drift back offshore any time soon, and develop just offshore.
If this region does not take within 24-48 hours, then I might start looking farther north for a new LLC to become dominant, perhaps an incarnation of the surface eddy currently around 24.5N 89N.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Where`s thing going? Everybody knows this system is going to light up. Hurricane chance? I would venture to say yes. I hope I`m wrong,
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 21 2012 07:31 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Thanks. Incredible discussion here.
The whole system is leaning towards the NE, if this was a developed hurricane I'd take that as a sign of things to come.
Early look of banding and blooming.
My question on the logic of the front fizzling and high pressure filling in to the north vs the front going more stationary and how would high pressure build in? Yes, from the East but I don't see that happening as fast.
The front is strong, not saying the front will fizzle but the front may get further south and pull it further north so that a sharp turn to the West seems not within parameters of what we would expect.
Also worth noting, most NWS discussion shows it going NE over Florida, even a few in Texas but imagine that could change ... I just find that sort of telling in ways.
Great discussion Ciel, have to read it over and over... that's one of the reasons I am here and love it.
Discussion based on hard facts not wishcasting.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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NPR16
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: West Coast Florida
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20-85 def swirl. Low levels?? time will tell
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 21 2012 10:26 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Yes this is several hours old. But the entire model suite is discussed. Very good Discussion!
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES WITH THE
FORECAST: IS THE PIECEMEAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEN
IN MANY OF THE FORECAST RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS A
FUNCTION OF THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM OR OF
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THE MODEL?
LOOKING BACK AT THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE AND
BEGINNING AT 00Z/21...THE IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN THE . FOR THE VALID TIME
25/12Z...
THESE RUNS VARY AS WIDELY AS A CONSOLIDATED 998 MB
LOW NEAR 27N85W TO A MORE STRUNG OUT TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A
1001 MB ATLC LOW NEAR 29N79W THROUGH FL TO 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR
25N85W AND INTO THE SW GULF.
THE NEW 12Z CARRIES THE LOW
ACROSS FL BY THIS TIME...WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
THE RUNS VALID AT THE SAME TIME...25/12Z...AGREE ON A LOW
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF SOMEWHERE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W
AND 91W. THE 21/00Z HAS STRAYED FROM THE EARLIER RUNS BY
DEEPENING THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY BY THIS TIME. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEW 12Z SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND THROUGH SUN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW 12Z ...CMC...GFS...AND UKMET ARE
SHOWING MORE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THAN THE RUNS AVAILABLE
THIS MORNING. BY 25/12Z THE AND UKMET ARE IN THE W GULF
AND THE IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH ONLY THE STRUNG
OUT ACROSS FL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FLIP-FLOPPING
GFS...ITS TOUGH TO COUNT OUT THE IDEA OF ENERGY SHEARING NE
ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE LOW. THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO WAS AGREED UPON BY AND HPC DURING THE MEDium Range CONference CALL.
THE 06Z GEFS MEAN HOLDS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF...BUT ALLOWS ENERGY TO PASS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THERE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. THIS WAS
THE PREFERRED SOLutioN FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VALID JUN 21/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC
MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 12Z IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z /12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks like we may have a LLC at this hour.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.
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doug
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere
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Quote:
Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.
Based on satellite, I have to concur that there would seem to be evidence of new LLC developing under the western edge of the convection just east (?) of the Northern tip of Yucatan. Don't think this changes present overall model spread for eventual motion, even though "that" still remains a questionmark. What might change however, is that this possible center being a bit farther east may be tucked a bit more under the upper level ridging. This would seem to aid in this systems development. May still be some lingering near term inflow issues while the larger broad low level swirl in the S. Central Gulf winds down, and am wondering if this is temporarily disrupting the point off Yucatan from becoming vertically stacked. Ongoing bursting of convection however will likely overcome those issues and once this does become a bit more of a vertically stacked system (tonight/tomm. a.m ?), than I think we will start to finally see a short term northward motion ensue.
While I still think that this system will eventually be shunted more westward, if I were in Tampa and points north into the Fla. Panhandle, I would'nt be adding any water to the pool for the next few days ( "Mother Nature" may well drop a few inches in for you!)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I'll go with parked in the Yucatan Channel also.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/st...0000&loop=0
Not over til it's over, a lot could happen... waiting on recon for the real data but think it's parked, drifting vs moving.
Also, want to add the ULL to the NE of the storm... ENE? off the East Coast of Florida is the most dominate figure on the map, moving very slowly west, very slowly... think this might be a bigger factor right now on the storm than the weakening front to the north...both seems parked tho the ULL is moving slowly west, barely
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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