cieldumort
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With Depression Five declared, we will start a Lounge on this system. This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
(Title updated to reflect new hurricane status.)
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 07 2012 02:48 PM)
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MikeC
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Long term this system has better odds to be a Caribbean rider and eventually move into the Yucatan/Central America. I really don't see too much that would move it to the north all that much, and if it does, it would die over the islands.
Intensity wise, I don't see it doing all too much unless it maintains itself in the Eastern Caribbean well.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If I lived on the Yucatan,I would pay very close attention to this system.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 02 2012 08:19 PM)
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stormtiger
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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The next 24-48 hours will go a long ways in determining 's ultimate destination.
If he can't get better organized at this forward speed, he could open up and stay weak and run into Central America. A more organized, stronger storm would likely turn more NW into the Yucatan or even possibly running thru the channel and into the GOM.
Right now is trucking west at a fairly good clip, and is in an unfavorable area for strengtheing. A lot of factors are working against , but if it makes it past the Eastern Carribean as a TS then there could be bigger problems down the line.
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mcgowanmc
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Hello.
It's been awhile since I've posted, which must mean that it's
been a while since a Hurricane threatened Houston to Mobile.... 
My home turf.
I have been lurking however, noting the Masters here an elsewhere.
And the has been Very accurate in it's forecasting the Last two years,
which is why I'm now wondering why it's latest forecasts are being shorted.
Curious.
Because I'm a fan of Droughts attracting storms.
Thanx and watching v UKMET modeling... :?:
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MikeC
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With now in the Eastern Caribbean, the next several days are key. The weakness in the ridge seems to be picked up by multiple models (including /EUro) and pulls it further north, with the Yucatan having the best odds for landfall.
Movement westward into central America is still very possible, but less likely today than yesterday, but most of the odds have shifted north toward the Yucatan.
In short, the very long range odds favor a Yucatan hit at this time, and likely south of Texas into Mexico.
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mcgowanmc
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Well OK then!
I love your bold position. Weakness that moves into Tampico and Matamoros.
You're in the Western Cone of probabilities.
Yes?
On the 'Stormspotlight' page:
I see outflow and convection....a bad boy forming in the latest above.
Love this site.
Thanx for having me.
Edited by mcgowanmc (Fri Aug 03 2012 08:08 PM)
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MikeC
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is on track for the Yucatan, chances are dropping it will get much further north than that. The chances for a move north are a good deal less, but not impossible (see the /HRWF)
However the odds still lean toward Mexico and/or Central America landfalls mostly in the odds for the long run, and those in the Yucatan of Mexico, Honduras, and Belize will want to watch very closely.
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mcgowanmc
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YES, this morning you're forecast is looking
spot on.
":uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that is a strong TS and not a weak system..."
" Isn't this (the Latest Ensemble track guidance) keeping it at basically a tropical storm or maybe low Cat 1 hurricane? (I get this from the pressure they have it at..) If that is the case, it makes sense why they have it so far west, but I think it will be stronger than that and therefore go more northerly. "
A weak storm hits Tampico Environs.
A strong storm clips the Yucatan's NE Corner.
Is that a fair assumption?
Thanx
Jim
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danielw
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Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.
All of the other models and the Official Forecast take toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
TropicalAtlantic.com Model page
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Daniel, I know the and HWRF are two of the best models in this business so are you discarding all of the southerly models at this time, and if so, what is your reasoning (not a challenge, I just like to know the reasons)? When should we see the official cone moving toward those models. At this point, they look like outliers versus the BAM ensemble, UKMet and LBAR. That swing up east would bring much more weather into my neighborhood around Tampa which is already saturated from Debby, a tropical wave and possibly another one this weekend. Thanks for your response!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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MikeC
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Those models aren't completely without merit (The ,HWRF) If the Upper Level low in the Gulf is enough to nudge the track a bit north of the forecast then that scenario seems a lot more likely than the Globals. In short, today is a pretty big day. is still moving relatively quickly westward, veering south of the forecast track brings more credibility to the globals, veering north more to the others. Some of the latest mimic (microwave) data suggests in may be nudging a bit northwest of the recon fix, at least now.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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He looks to really be coming together now,fast too.I don't see anything that would greatly change the current forecast track.I agree with Mike that there is a pretty good chance this could turn into a major over the next couple of days.I still think the Yucatan is most likely the first landfall.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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The moved westward to match most of the other models this run, still what occurs after the Yucatan is up for grabs, west or recure, all depends on how far north/strong the storm gets. Odds still favor it going into Mexico again, however.
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mcgowanmc
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Alright then.
Could someone say why will Not
be a Cat1 in 48 hours,
Yet the Clark Evans Intensity ensemble has Only 4 models including
the Official Forecast Track getting there in that time.
And if DanielW says MS/Al,
I'm going with Corpus Christi to Morgan City.
Especially if there's agreement the stronger ,
the farther North it goes.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't have a single reason in not following the majority of the models into Mexico and Central America.
I'm just very curious why the Main 2 Hurricane Suites are wanting to go North. The only reason I can see at this time is the possibility that they are reading the ULL over the Western GOM. If you look at the water vapor loops the ULL is pulling moisture in from over the Yucatan/ bay of Campeche area. I'm not an expert at any means with tropical systems. Just highly curious as to why the and HWRF Suites have been moving North and as of the latest Advisory the has excluded those two suites. They normally use those two suites as the basis for their Forecasts.
The and HWRF both moving in the same direction is a bit of a Red Flag to me. Something is amiss here. Miami, we have a problem.
Always follow and NWS watches, warnings and Advisories for protection of property and personal safety.
Jim, Corpus Christi to Morgan City is a good bet right now.
I agree with your Storms follow drought theory.
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 04 2012 10:07 PM)
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mcgowanmc
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" Post subject: Re: ATL: - Tropical Storm PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:51 am 5 Category 5
Still racing along at 22 MPH and outpacing the convection this morning. Typical for a weak storm in the Caribbean and I remember one of the early runs had depicted as an open wave at this longitude. South of Jamaica is where the slow down usually occurs so the next 24 hours should eliminate a lot of possible solutions.
Thought I was seeing a stair step pattern beginning to appear in the tracking data earlier. That sometimes is a sign that a storm is putting on the brakes. The coordinates jumping north a little when a temporary LLC forms under each new convective burst then he tracks west again as the LLC outruns the convection. Last edited by Nimbus on Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total. "
I agree with this post and this one:
"
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H :larrow: Doesn't seem like slowing movement to me. Even if it does, its too late now...only wild center re-locations to the north will allow it a chance to do something. Looks ugly right now and that new burst means nothing."
But Only the 'Wild Center re Locations to the North' part....
Ernesto just jumped to 16N or at least closer than 15....
IMHO....
carmen 1974 claudette 2008 ...the closest analogs....
And the UKMET has going up Sabine River.
....SWAG....
Giving a Nod to those looking at 2 Mexican Landings...
will pull down to Galveston....
We'll know in the next 36 hours...
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 05 2012 08:15 AM)
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MikeC
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is moving too fast again and the center (if you can call it that) is racing without he convection now. Recon is just not finding anything to support storm status and is behaving more like an open wave. It's shaping up to be more west and south that even I though earlier. At the rate it is moving now, it may not ever make it to the Bay of Campeche and just die over central America.
Ernesto was yet another victim of the eastern Caribbean "Hurricane Graveyard" effect.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 05 2012 09:14 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ENSEMBLE...STEER
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE National Hurricane Center.
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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While each storm is different was no different than most of the other storms that traversed the Carribean close to South America. Despite having "the look" could never overcome geography, dry air, and the overall climate data that has been noted for decades.
The handled the storm very well for days, but it may have just undersestimated the boiling waters of the Western Carribean. is rallying at the last minute and may strike afairly hard blow to Belize.
It would have been nice if would have stayed weak all the way into the Yucatan and weak into N Mexico and somehow made its way into the Southern Plains of the US; but its not in the cards now.
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