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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94515 - Tue Jul 09 2013 07:36 AM

HWRF shreds Chantal over the Hispaniola. Remains are weak and move toward a SC NC, south of the Outer Banks area. Max wind speed for this run of the HWRF is 69 knots.

GFDL veers north before being shredded over Hispaniola and moves into the Western Atlantic just shy of the Turks and Caicos. Movement more toward the Outer Banks, NC than HWRF. But not by much.
Max forecast wind speed for this run is 96 knots.

The GFS and it's Ensembles right now are in an area from Charleston, SC to the western tip of Cuba. That's the Cone of Certainty area for the most part.

I'm somewhat concerned with the "Left Turn Chantal" scenario seen in nearly all of the GFS models and in a few of the NHC's model.

I saw a flare and hover, stall over the Bahamas area on yesterday's run. Similar to a hummingbird or helicopter moving up to a location and then abruptly coming to a hover. Easiest way to explain it. I'm still waiting on the next few days runs to come up with a better solution.


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 52
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94523 - Tue Jul 09 2013 11:12 AM

Curious if the Barbados radar is new this year. It has provided the best images I can recall of a storm going through the islands.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #94526 - Tue Jul 09 2013 02:10 PM

Barbados radar went internet available online last year if I recall.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94527 - Tue Jul 09 2013 02:25 PM

The midday (12z models) are having a bad time initalizing Chantal, and the extremely fast movement of the storm isn't helping either, so another round of mixed models that are mostly useless.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94528 - Tue Jul 09 2013 07:41 PM

How can a system look so bad,yet have winds of 65 mph?Very strange to me.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94535 - Wed Jul 10 2013 09:33 AM

The present situation indicates that the Euro has out performed the others as it never really had the system as a closed low at all and allows it to play itself out in Cuba, which is likely to be the resolution, IMO.

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94537 - Wed Jul 10 2013 10:53 AM

Now we have a huge flare up,could she be coming back to life?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94539 - Wed Jul 10 2013 11:39 AM

I've been watching her closely all morning and each time I look at her she looks stronger. Not surprised to see recon still supporting TS status. It looks like the bulk of the circulation may skirt south of Hispaniola but I'm sure the mountains will still affect her somewhat. Chantal has proven to be a resilient storm that I'm sure will be looked at closely after this season is over to try and understand the dynamics that kept her going. There are still future land interactions ahead of her on the forecast track (some high spots in the part of Cuba she is projected to go over) but at her speed it doesn't seem like she is sticking around any one place long enough to get bent out of shape by terrain.

One factor that has concerned me is the ULL in the Bahamas that seems to have been meandering about off the Florida coast for some time. Is it indicative that once Chantal "turns the corner" and slips out from under the ridge that she may stall in the Florida Straits?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #94540 - Wed Jul 10 2013 12:29 PM

I expected it to be gone, but...The TUTT is the main feature now influencing the progress of the system. It has been meandering westerly for days and that motion seems to be continuing and it is slow. The TUTT has generated a general cyclonic flow effecting from South Florida and almost all of the north western Carribean, and the system should follow an upper level trough that extends from SE Florida over eastern Cuba to the north west and north,,,The TUTT is generating westerly shear as the system moves to the west.
The persistence of a vortex in the face of several obstacles should be of concern, IMO, because if the system does slide NW to N and the effects of shear lessen and it then slows in forward motion, it could have a future if the vortex is not interdicted by interaction with land...
The current WV picture suggests the system could avoid a great deal of land interaction by passing through between Haiti and Cuba if the upper trough catches it...
We should not take our eyes off it...

--------------------
doug


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94548 - Thu Jul 11 2013 11:40 AM

Am I wrong or has Chantal broken in two, one section firing up storms over E Cuba and the other part continuing her sprint northward? Is the ULL north and east of the northern section at work in this?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #94549 - Thu Jul 11 2013 11:51 AM

Ed just made this observation in the "Chantal no longer" thread. It sure looks like her energy has continued moving westward to between Jamaica and Cuba while the convection has blows off to the north and begun to dissipate and disperse. Still in a high sheer environment but that flare up may be past the worst of it....bears watching.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #94550 - Thu Jul 11 2013 12:33 PM

I see a couple of interesting areas in association with the remnants of this system. There appear to be two weak areas of rotation, one centered near 19N and 73.5W and the other centered near 24N and 74W. The latter looks like it might be developing. Then there is the convection bloom near 20N and 77W.

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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: JoshuaK]
      #94556 - Sat Jul 13 2013 02:28 PM

Question: I've been watching the remnants of Chantal and it seems like every day whenever the remnants are near a land mass (i.e. Cuba, Central America, etc.) a row of storms seems to blow up all of the sudden (like what Florida is experiencing right now). Is this the sea breeze front interacting with the energy from the remnants of Chantal?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #94557 - Sat Jul 13 2013 11:54 PM

Actually, the amount of energy associated with the remnants of Chantal is quiet low - which is one of the reasons why the probability for redevelopment is also quite low. But never-the-less you have asked a good question. The warming of the land during the day is what drives the sea breeze and, as the remnants have drifted north, a high level of tropical moisture has moved north over the land masses that you mentioned (when one thinks of the tropics or the sub-tropics its hard to conjure up an image of even higher moisture content - but it indeed does happen). The higher precipitable water values along with the heat of Summer and the sea breeze interactions all produce a higher than normal concentration of daytime convective activity that declines in the later evening hours as the heat source is lost and the atmosphere stabilizes.
ED


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