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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas
      #95406 - Sun May 03 2015 01:25 PM

The 03/00Z ECMWF develops a non-tropical system off of a decaying frontal zone north of the Bahamas on Wedesday (5/6). The model keeps the system close to the warm Gulf Stream SSTs and intensifies it with movement to the north into eastern North Carolina next Sunday evening (5/10) as a Subtropical Storm.

The 03/12Z GFS develops a system north of the northern Bahamas near 28N 78W on Wednesday and takes a slower moving and weaker system to the north northwest (not as close to the Gulf Stream) into the South Carolina southern coast on Monday morning (5/11). Without much upper air and SST support for development I'd tend to favor the GFS solution. Although actual system development is far from certain, showers and northerly winds are possible along the east central Florida coast on Wednesday into Thursday morning with showers along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts this upcoming weekend and possibly the North Carolina coast next Sunday and Monday (5/10-11).

For the last few days the models have been persistent in developing something north of the Bahamas - so its an area to monitor for potential activity next week. The first name on the Atlantic list this season is Ana. NHC has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this potential system Sunday morning and will issue another Special TWO on Monday morning.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95407 - Mon May 04 2015 09:18 AM

Looking at model runs, specifically GFS and Euro. The GFS suggests the system develops and moves inland near Savannah/Hilton Head late Friday. The Euro moves it around a bit, but keeps it offshore.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #95408 - Mon May 04 2015 02:00 PM

Glad you posted this and good to see discussion on this ... system for lack of a better word.

A lot of variables in timing and timing affects everything. Just how close it is to the coast of Florida and the water temperature beneath it affects intensity. Easily could have a displaced center. Also a lot going on in the Gulf today.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: LoisCane]
      #95409 - Mon May 04 2015 02:15 PM

I had a feeling something was up. We have a cool backdoor kind of wind out of the northeast today with blustering spitting clouds. Kind of an odd setup for early May. The waters ought to be plenty warm enough to supply energy if the conditions are favorable...

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95410 - Mon May 04 2015 02:57 PM

Midday models, GFS has shifted West, with the low just offshore of Port St. Lucie on Wednesday and then moving up into South Carolina (Charleston area) on Friday. Euro is still east, but has shifted a bit west and keeps the system offshore a lot longer, not really moving much.

Model Link (From Levi Cowan


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95411 - Mon May 04 2015 06:16 PM

18z GFS has it basically doing a loop offshore and still offshore GA/Jacksonville on Saturday. It is weaker on this run, though. It still will cause nasty surf and marine conditions along the coast.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95412 - Tue May 05 2015 02:57 PM

12Z models today move it more toward SC/NC (Charleston to Myrtle beach area) and are stronger. Development chances are going, up and recon is scheduled to fly out tomorrow if the system persists, and it looks likely it will.

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 145
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #95413 - Tue May 05 2015 05:14 PM

Another season, another reason... for going "ohh, lookie!"

Man, I'm getting so old I'm making dad jokes.

Anyway, last night, almost all the models had a weakish low headed up the coast. Now most of them have dropped the low, except the NAM4K who seems to be really bullish on this one.
Current run - 5/5/15 5:05pm


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: Doombot!]
      #95414 - Wed May 06 2015 02:22 AM

Welcome to the Early 2015 Hurricane Season.
I noticed that the NAM jumped on board the other day. Interesting.
I also saw a weather map on WxChannel that depicted a vortice (turning of the atmosphere) moving into South Carolina on Saturday /Sunday.
If the system moves onshore late Saturday or early Sunday it would definitely limit the development processes.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #95415 - Wed May 06 2015 06:38 AM

I'm seeing some early morning tweets that the system has been numbered 90L. So far I have not been able to confirm that at all as of 0630 EDT.
RECON is still scheduled to fly the system today.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Possible Disturbance North of Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #95418 - Wed May 06 2015 10:26 AM

Here is the first reference to Invest 90L that I was able to locate (for 06Z):

WHXX01 KWBC 060656
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
0656 UTC WED MAY 6 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902015) 20150506 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150506 0600 150506 1800 150507 0600 150507 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 79.0W 28.1N 79.3W 29.0N 79.1W 29.8N 78.5W
BAMD 26.5N 79.0W 29.1N 78.4W 31.0N 77.9W 32.3N 77.9W
BAMM 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.6W 29.8N 78.0W 30.8N 77.5W
LBAR 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.1W 30.6N 76.9W 32.1N 74.4W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150508 0600 150509 0600 150510 0600 150511 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 77.8W 33.1N 77.6W 36.1N 78.3W 39.3N 76.1W
BAMD 33.1N 78.4W 33.7N 79.8W 33.3N 80.1W 34.1N 78.2W
BAMM 31.7N 77.4W 33.4N 78.1W 34.9N 78.8W 37.1N 77.3W
LBAR 32.5N 71.0W 31.0N 61.6W 28.3N 52.4W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 59KTS 61KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 59KTS 61KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

...and here is the latest update for 06/12Z:

WHXX01 KWBC 061230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1230 UTC WED MAY 6 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902015) 20150506 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150506 1200 150507 0000 150507 1200 150508 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.8N 79.4W 27.9N 79.3W 28.6N 78.8W 29.2N 77.9W
BAMD 26.8N 79.4W 29.0N 78.5W 30.7N 77.7W 31.9N 77.7W
BAMM 26.8N 79.4W 28.4N 79.2W 29.4N 78.8W 30.1N 78.4W
LBAR 26.8N 79.4W 28.5N 78.7W 30.2N 77.8W 31.4N 76.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150508 1200 150509 1200 150510 1200 150511 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 77.0W 33.2N 76.8W 36.5N 76.8W 39.4N 73.8W
BAMD 32.7N 78.2W 33.4N 79.6W 33.3N 79.6W 33.9N 77.3W
BAMM 30.8N 78.3W 32.1N 78.9W 33.2N 79.5W 34.9N 77.8W
LBAR 32.2N 73.9W 32.0N 67.8W 29.5N 61.5W 27.3N 57.3W
SHIP 52KTS 52KTS 46KTS 43KTS
DSHP 52KTS 52KTS 39KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.8N LONCUR = 79.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.9N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SHIP & DSHIP bring the system up to 52 knots on 08/12Z.
ED


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