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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General Atlantic Basin Activity [Re: MikeC]
      #95929 - Thu Sep 10 2015 03:40 AM

And then the next 2 runs show something again in the western gulf mid to late next week, so the general possibility still remains. The GFS still doesn't show anything like this (small area of rain that wanders into Texas) and CMC hints at something, but also has Grace remnants entering the Gulf.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General Atlantic Basin Activity [Re: MikeC]
      #95960 - Mon Sep 21 2015 10:05 AM

The last few weeks have seen a few storms born, but nothing affecting the continental United States. GFS is suggesting we watch the West Caribbean around Sunday for potential, but in general conditions remain very hostile for development anywhere near us this year.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: General Atlantic Basin Activity [Re: MikeC]
      #95963 - Tue Sep 22 2015 09:28 AM

There seems to be some increasing Model hypotheses suggesting development in the GOM before the end of next week.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General Atlantic Basin Activity [Re: doug]
      #96079 - Wed Oct 07 2015 10:49 AM

Based on the long range models, the west Caribbean is the next area to watch. Shear is decreasing in the area and the GFS and euro both show something going on there in 10 days.

This is way too far out, but the GFS shows the system nearing Florida 4 days before the 10 year mark of the last hurricane to hit Florida (Wilma) -- which was also the last major hurricane (Cat 3+) to make landfall in the US. The FIM experimental model also shows w. carib development by 10/20 see

Long range experimental FIM model, take with several grains of salt. All this means is watch the w. Carib for development


This is long range and all this really means is watch the West Caribbean late next week and the week after this does NOT mean this will occur.



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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
10 years? [Re: MikeC]
      #96080 - Wed Oct 14 2015 12:21 AM

There's a couple models picking up a GOM system around 156 - 180 hours, but it's starting to really look like Florida is going to make the milestone 10 years without a landfalling hurricane.

This, coupled with the Erika false alarm (mostly by the media) has me worried about serious case of hurricane apathy when the time eventuality comes, be it in 5 days or 5 years.

Fewer and fewer of us were around for the 04 and 05 pounding (and much fewer still for 92 Andrew). All I can hope is that if a "big one" is incoming, socal media will overcome apathy.

Hopefully this is my last post for 2015. If so, have a great off season and we'll talk next year.

D!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 10 years? [Re: Doombot!]
      #96081 - Thu Oct 15 2015 10:54 AM

Yes...the models on the FSU site seem to agree that a GOM disturbance will exist at the 7-10 day mark. We on the on the best coast of Florida are the most vulnerable in late Oct.-early Nov. Not over until; the "fat Lady" sings.

--------------------
doug


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