Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 62 (Michael) , Major: 62 (Michael) Florida - Any: 62 (Michael) Major: 62 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95599 - Thu Aug 20 2015 08:05 AM

GFS and Euro are similar moving the system through the northeastern Caribbean then running into a wall of shear int he Caribbean and then Danny getting torn to shreds.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95612 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:30 PM

Remarkable consensus. Has anyone ever seen this
with a system that is still 800 miles from the Islands?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95613 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:43 PM

Am I seeing things or do the last couple of images look a LOT less happy than this morning. Less of an eye and a lot of convection being pushed north of the eye area. It already looks like the eye is open on the south side a bit. SO tiny out there. Can't remember one so small and tightly wound. I could easily see it getting lost in a sea of dry air.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95616 - Thu Aug 20 2015 03:37 PM

Check track and info for Iris 2001, eventually a major hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/dis/al112001.discus.013.html


track:

http://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2001_charts/at200109.gif

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95618 - Thu Aug 20 2015 03:44 PM

Quote:

Am I seeing things or do the last couple of images look a LOT less happy than this morning. Less of an eye and a lot of convection being pushed north of the eye area. It already looks like the eye is open on the south side a bit. SO tiny out there. Can't remember one so small and tightly wound. I could easily see it getting lost in a sea of dry air.




Not seeing the same thing. Looks like setting sun reflecting off the eastern eye wall
with some impressive CDO developing all the way around the center. If this trend continues
Danny could get back to some of the earlier intensity
projections before encountering the inevitable shear.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95619 - Thu Aug 20 2015 04:14 PM

In the past hour or so, it does seem to be intensifying around the eye. I was looking on the Rainbow Loop earlier at right around 16:45 and it looked like the eye was gone...then it returned shortly after on that loop.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95620 - Thu Aug 20 2015 07:52 PM

Small storms like Danny vary greatly from hour to hour, you take the long view.

They have more fluctuations than bigger storms.

He looks good to me.

Here's a link showing him approaching the Islands

http://hokukea.soest.hawaii.edu/satellit...;animtype=flash

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95622 - Thu Aug 20 2015 08:28 PM

Evening model run walkthrough:

The bad thing about this afternoon 12Z and later models today is that it initialized before Donny was a hurricane, so it still is treating it like a 50mph Tropical Storm. However, even then Danny is so small there may be large errors (even more than usual) in the models

- 18Z GFS:Initialized too weak
- Sunday: Weakens as it nears the Islands
- Monday: Over St. Kitts/Nevas/Montserrat then Weakens further
- Tuesday: Over Puerto Rico on Tuesday
- Wednesday: Remnants over the Dominican Republic
- Thursday: GFS loses it completely

- 12Z ECMWF (Euro) again, initialized a bit too weak
- Sunday: Weakening Quickly
- Monday: Crossed over Guadaloupe (Weak)
- Wednesday: Loses it
- Sat Aug 29th Wave east of Danny is east of the Bahamas here, but recurving and very strong

- CMC
- Monday: Misses Caribbean Islands to the north
- Wendesday: Over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas
- Thursday Morning: Over Grand Bahama Island
- Thursday Night: Over Nassau
- Then Recurves out to sea, missing Bermuda to the Northwest

HRWF (18z)
- Sunday: Weakens Danny Greatly
- Tuesday: Over St. Kitts (very weak)
- Wednesday: Weak, just Northeast of Puerto Rico

GFDL (18z)
- Sunday: Weakens Danny Greatly
- Monday: Misses Islands to the Northeast (very weak)
- Tuesday: North of the Virgin Islands (regaining some strength)

Danny's almost out of the ITCZ now, so it'll have less moisture to work with. Most of the models agree that by late Saturday and Sunday Danny will hit some hostile conditions and weaken greatly. And with the small core it will likely weaken quickly. Recon tomorrow afternoon should be interesting

The NHC track is still pretty good, it's following it fairly well, maybe a hair north.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95627 - Fri Aug 21 2015 09:21 AM

Mini model update.

6z GFS and Euro haven't changed much from earlier, weaken drastically Sunday, through th enorthern islands and then Danny weakening greatly, getting torn to shreds by shear and dry air.


Biggest outlier: The GFDL run which shows it missing PR/VI islands to the north and then regaining strength on the last frame.

Danny is still worth watching, but the NHC's track is still spot on based on the information available. I do think they are being a bit weak on current intensity, though. When some of the planes arrives this afternoon, and especially tomorrow afternoon the accuracy should get much better.

The next run, 12Z, was initialized with 100mph winds, but it will be several hours before the runs start to show up.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 54
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95638 - Fri Aug 21 2015 03:15 PM

So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the GFDL is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the NHC projection.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #95639 - Fri Aug 21 2015 04:37 PM

Quote:

So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the GFDL is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the NHC projection.




Hurricane models have come a long way with the OFCL NHC track verifying in the 90% (educated guess) range in the short term (3 days). So if you look at the cone right now at three days out skirting the NE Islands puts you approximately in the top third of the Cone. So 33.3% +/- 5% (for the 90% assumed verification) of 100% puts you around a 28.3% to 38.3% chance of Danny moving North of the Islands at day three. That is about as unscientific of an analysis as you will get on this site. Trust the three day cone.
We will have to see what is left of Danny after running the shear gauntlet and if he has to navigate the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic you can say goodbye -- that mountain range is 10,000'.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95640 - Fri Aug 21 2015 04:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the GFDL is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the NHC projection.




Hurricane models have come a long way with the OFCL NHC track verifying in the 90% (educated guess) range in the short term (3 days). So if you look at the cone right now at three days out skirting the NE Islands puts you approximately in the top third of the Cone. So 33.3% +/- 5% (for the 90% assumed verification) of 100% puts you around a 28.3% to 38.3% chance of Danny moving North of the Islands at day three. That is about as unscientific of an analysis as you will get on this site. Trust the three day cone.
We will have to see what is left of Danny after running the shear gauntlet and if he has to navigate the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic you can say goodbye -- that mountain range is 10,000'.




Actually I messed that up. If I am saying the three day cone verifies 90% of the time (assuming again) that only leaves 5% on either side of the OFCL track so 5% chance it stays north of the Islands at day three final answer.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95650 - Sun Aug 23 2015 09:47 AM

Skipped a day when Danny took a nosedive intensity wise. It's holding this morning, with convection starting to fire back over the center again.

Models: 1 2 3 effort coming

GFS (6z):
Tomorrow Morning: Danny over Guadeloupe
Tuesday: Weaker, GFS starting to lsoe, south of PR
Wed: Directly over Hispaniola, falling apart
Thur: Weak system (98L) east of Danny over northeast leewards
Mon (Aug 31): 98L East of Bahamas, then recurves out to sea, wave currently over Africa over NE Caribbean islands (weak)

Euro (0z): Identical to GFS up until Wednesday
Has 98L staying north of islands then recurves it out to sea. (As a much larger storm than Danny)

Currently none of the models shows the 3 Atlantic systems as a threat to the continental US.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 23 2015 02:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 154
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95660 - Mon Aug 24 2015 04:45 PM

I see some convection firing over what appears to be an otherwise exposed CoC at about 16.6N and 64W circa the 20:15 UTC Visible Satellite Imagery.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 11469

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center