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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #96026 - Thu Oct 01 2015 03:20 AM

Still clear as mud.

Within the next 24-36 hours we should at least, hopefully, finally have a far better handle on the simple question of whether or not Joaquin will in fact make a US landfall, or get flung back around and out. We need to see how and where these moving parts are ultimately arranged by Friday morning. There is simply far too much up in the air at this point.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96027 - Thu Oct 01 2015 06:37 AM

Overnight runs, the Euro is a best west of before, by 90 miles or so later in the run but remains out to sea. The 6Z GFS keeps it east of the US as well. So better news this morning, but still until it gets out of the area of slow movement around the Bahamas, large amounts of uncertainty remain. The news is not so good for the Central Bahamas, as Joaquin may stay over it longer as a major hurricane.


6Z HWRF has landfall near Morehead City, NC Sunday evening.

6Z GFDL similar to the HWRF, but sooner on Sunday morning (comes in faster).

Until a definitive motion away from the Bahamas occurs, the models are very unreliable now for the long term track past the Bahamas. (In either direction)







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Hawkeyewx
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96029 - Thu Oct 01 2015 08:18 AM

What I find most frustrating is how the American models completely failed to see any of the southwesterly movement. Every darn run of the GFDL/HWRF for the last three days had Joaquin moving west from its initial position and the GFS has been similar. How can a model acccurately predict the 3-5 day track if it can't even get day 1 right? Meanwhile, three days ago the Euro had this thing tracking sw/wsw into the Bahamas.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96030 - Thu Oct 01 2015 09:30 AM

Ensembles are east this morning, however the storm continues to slip south of the forecast positions (and even the Euro from a few days ago, but not nearly as pronounced as the others) so many of the models are still struggling with the short term track, which has very large implications for the longer term. In short, better trends this morning, but still a total lack of confidence in the models in general.

.


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doug
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96032 - Thu Oct 01 2015 11:33 AM

After looking at the WV for about a half hour I find myself fascinated with the images of the huge weather systems clashing now, at least three of them. I found myself wondering if the hurricane continues to intensify will it exert enough influence to blunt the progress of the southern push of the trough moving eastward in the GOM. I think there is some indication of that happening. But one of the valuable things the WV can show is where the turning point is, and I think it is just west of the Bahamas, and it should remain there as long as the relative force of the hurricane and the trough neutralize each other. So I think a westward push for the next 24 hours as predicted is on point. What i do not see is the "cutoff low" taking shape yet, and that would lead me to think the Euro model will win the prize here as far as keeping the system off shore all the way up..but it is early..

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: doug]
      #96035 - Thu Oct 01 2015 12:58 PM

12Z GFS manages to stay east of north America entirely. Which is a good trend to see. Still a bit too much doubt with the slow motion and near term track, but the trends are in the right direction.

12Z HWRF is well east of the last run also (Out to sea)

12Z GFDL landfall Virginia Beach on Sunday night.


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Owlguin
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96037 - Thu Oct 01 2015 01:21 PM

Quote:

So, can I surmise that the Euro model is the only model with good data input these days? If this holds true, GFS, GFDL, HWRF = really bad longer term track record (>1-2 days). Seems like that can only be the result of bad information they were fed. I know nothing about models, just seems to be logical.




*** Hi Owl, this really is a topic for ASK/TELL and/or a Google search, but your question is already embedded in this thread so I am going to give a response here and let's take this to PM or an ASK/TELL if you want more info. The models pretty much all get the same imputs. The EURO has more processing power and finer detail. Fortunately, the GFS is getting a huge upgrade right now, which you can read more about here (link) - ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 01 2015 02:49 PM)


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doug
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #96040 - Thu Oct 01 2015 01:45 PM

My estimate is that the storm will begin a wnw track soon and will get fairly close to the big island before it sharply turns to the north...probably tomorrow...

--------------------
doug


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BahWeather
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: doug]
      #96041 - Thu Oct 01 2015 02:03 PM

New to the board, so this might not be the appropriate spot on the forum... but how much more of a Western track will the storm have to take before the Abaco Islands in the northern Bahamas are affected? How much of an eastern track can we depend on?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: BahWeather]
      #96042 - Thu Oct 01 2015 02:15 PM

Abaco will probably get the western edges when it moves northeast. Long Island is going to get nearly 12-16 hours of Cat 4 winds, San Salvador & Rum Cay a bit less, but still, Abaco won't get the worst by any stretch. Maybe a few bands.

12Z Euro continues the kick back out to sea, but gets very close to Bermuda this run.

Two videos from crooked island

earlier this morning:

mqdefault_live.jpg

more recently:

mqdefault_live.jpg


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96045 - Thu Oct 01 2015 02:59 PM

To answer the question, if the system goes west of the forecasted turn point, Exuma will feel it on the west, and the Eleuthera area would get much more than a few bands. It's really too close for comfort. A few bands could be a few "Bad" bands.

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craigm
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96046 - Thu Oct 01 2015 03:42 PM

Can see Joaquin's High cirrus outflow now here in West Palm Beach. Beautiful afternoon here light breeze.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Owlguin
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #96053 - Thu Oct 01 2015 05:46 PM

Curious why the NHC says the trough should cause a turn North in 12-24 hours yet the plot at which they have it turning North has already been reached. Wondering if they expect it to be stationary. If it traveled West for another 12-24 hours, it would go over and well past Long Island.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR. Joaquin Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #96056 - Fri Oct 02 2015 10:02 AM

Was away most of the day yesterday, but the models have shifted toward the middle, still safely out to sea once past the Bahamas (and avoiding Bermuda to the west), but a bit closer. Joaquin is moving northwest now and expected to move north and north northeast later.

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