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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97674 - Sun Jun 18 2017 03:19 PM

93L 12Z rundown

12Z GFS, starts getting it organized north of Cuba early tomorrow morning, then heads it up toward Southeastern Lousiana where the rain spits off to the east Tuedsay night into Wednesday, landfall sometime midday Wednesday on SE LA.

GFS parallel is similar to the operational GFS just a bit stronger.

CMC moves toward LA then turns a hard left toward Texas and rapidly weakens as it does.


Euro is a slow westward movement and sloppy, eventually turns into Texas Friday morning near Port O'Connor TX.

Recon this afternoon was cancelled since there is no obvious low level circulation right now.

The center may be trying to form on the northeastern tip of the trough associated with 93L, near Cuba, which may shift things a bit, although is fairly in line with the GFS. Interesting tow atch.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97677 - Mon Jun 19 2017 07:21 AM

Morning models, GFS toward Louisiana, with most of the rain to the east, Florida will likely see extra moisture today/tomorrow. Eventual landfall Thursday morning in Central Louisiana, fairly weak.

GFS Para also toward Louisiana, with most of the rain to the east, Florida will likely see extra moisture today/tomorrow. Eventual landfall Thursday morning in Eastern Louisiana, fairly weak, energy shoots off beforehand toward the panhandle.

CMC takes it in near TX/LA border Thursday morning, weak.

Euro keeps it weak/TS eventual landfall near Port O'Connor TX on Thursday evening.


The system will likely remain a mess, it may be a Tropical Storm, but other than a lot of rain and some minor flooding (Although some areas may see major flooding), it shouldn't be too bad. Chances for it to be much more than that are pretty low, the primarily threat will be the rainfall, potentially well east of the center of the storm.



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97678 - Mon Jun 19 2017 12:28 PM

Models are one thing but what we are actually seeing is something else, perhaps in this case. There is a vigorous upper low feature that has dropped down from LA coast to east of Corpus Christi that is having a substantial impact on the subject feature.., consistent with the current GFS, a weak surface low is observed north of the Yucatan but it is exposed as the upper low is creating shear over the feature..and the flow around this upper low has had considerable influence on the potential development of the surface low. The GFS seems to want to diminish the influence of this upper feature over the next day or so and thereby allow more deepening of the surface low...
Right now I would guess that this will not become an organized tropical low as it is more subtropical in shape and form.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97686 - Tue Jun 20 2017 06:08 AM

A tough one for forecasters to nail down, given its genesis as a product of a very broad monsoon gyre .. interacting with a tropical wave ... interacting with a diving upper level low ..

The 4AM NHC discussion brings up the possibility of THREE never becoming a tropical cyclone, but instead getting designated subtropical later today. Especially considering its ongoing interaction with the upper-level low to its west - imparting moderate to high shear and injecting dry air - this makes a great deal of sense.

On the other hand, the very last few frames from night vision IR suggest an effort by the cyclone may now be underway to align better with the deeper convection, convection which has been getting more robust since late yesterday. In this regard, it is behaving more like a sheared tropical cyclone. I personally lean more to this scenario, although not by a lot.

In THREE's case, the distinction between subtropical and tropical is more than academic. While the greatest threat will be from heavy, tropical precipitation (flooding) either way, a better (or worse) aligned system could have significant track implications, in addition to the potential for the cyclone to result in an area of more concentrated, potentially heavier wind damage (TC), as opposed to a more widespread, but possibly less severe wind risk (STC).

NHC will probably have a much better handle on its ultimate designation (Tropical or Subtrop) by this evening, but either way 'Cindy' appears to be a very safe bet.


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Storm Cooper
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97687 - Tue Jun 20 2017 07:46 AM

Prolific rainmaker in my area. Flooding will be an issue but much of the southeast still needs the rain.

Bit of AFD Tally...

The main focus for this period will remain the track of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three and its impacts for our area. Latest
guidance has come into better agreement regarding the track of the
system with most models converging on potential landfall locations
from southeastern TX to the central LA Gulf Coast. As an upper
level trough pushes westward and gradually weakens to the west of
the tropical system, an upper level ridge will build across much
of the Gulf and gradual intensification is expected over the warm
Gulf Waters. However, some shear will persist over the center of
the low and it is not expected to intensify beyond tropical storm
strength.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #97695 - Wed Jun 21 2017 10:33 AM

It's just too early for all this action.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97696 - Wed Jun 21 2017 10:47 AM

The GFS models seem to have performed best on this system, which is a unique system for me...very complex. At first I did not think the models had anticipated that ULL correctly, but in the end actually did...

--------------------
doug


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