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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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TS CINDY Lounge
      #97643 - Sun Jun 11 2017 11:01 AM

A tropical gyre appears to be developing near and over Central America. For the past week longer range global models have been fairly consistent in cooking up a tropical cyclone from this gyre that heads into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend of June 17th and/or into the following week.

Much run-to-run variability even exists within the individual models themselves, let alone among competing models. However, as the development of the gyre seems to be verifying, and the trend for tropical cyclone genesis in the western Atlantic is very consistent among all major models, a thread is being started on this still non-existent, but forecast future cyclone.

The overall setup and environment in the western Atlantic is likely to be conducive for tropical cyclogenesis to occur and strengthen in a broad sense around mid-month.

One potential mitigating factor is the formation of a stronger east Pac system in the near term. Models do not seem to have a good handle on East Pac Invest 92E, which has formed just west of Central America in that basin, and which could disrupt things for the western Atlantic. The more plausible scenario would be for 92E to track far enough west as to allow the gyre over Central America to continue cooking unimpeded, but this is TBD.

Another potential obstacle for this 'future cyclone' looks to be the introduction of some dry, subsident air during the latter half of June.

How much if at all either of the two obstacles noted above are present next weekend and the following week (June 19-25) could be deciding factors.

0z June 11 runs of the ECMWF & GFS 9 Days Out

Image credits: Tropical Tidbits

This system has not yet developed, and may in fact not do so at all. However, if and once a disturbance forms we will update the title and thread with any relevant Invest tag, storm number, name, etc.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.

Title changed to reflect NHC Advisories for Tropical Storm Cindy. PTC THREE[, formerly Invest 93L, has become a tropical storm as of June 20th - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 20 2017 01:46 PM)


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Kraig
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: cieldumort]
      #97644 - Sun Jun 11 2017 08:31 PM

Both of the Miami forecast discussions today (early morning and afternoon) discussed the Euro and GFS showing a " potential disturbance moving northward in the western Carribean sometime this weekend. Regardless of its evolution, this feature should advect deeper tropical moisture towards South Florida. If this is the case, expect wetter than normal conditions to return to South Florida". Should be something to watch this week!

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doug
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: Kraig]
      #97645 - Mon Jun 12 2017 09:30 AM

Apparently a number of the models are suggesting favorable environments for possible TC genesis in the 6/18-6/21 period near the Yucatan...something to monitor.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: doug]
      #97646 - Mon Jun 12 2017 08:14 PM

This could be a flash start then pretty much nothing or maybe the NHC's numbers as well as some here will prove to verify. Going with the odds I'd play the latter.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #97647 - Tue Jun 13 2017 09:54 AM

Both models seem to be really having trouble past 5 days or so lately, I'm not sure much will happen with this system, I'll follow it for a bit though.

A strong wave off Africa (for this time of year) just showed up also.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97648 - Tue Jun 13 2017 02:46 PM

It's on the outlook with a 20% chance for development, it will have a large circulation if it does. Most likely to say south and enter Mexico (based on the long range).

Upper Level winds will be favorable, but land interaction will most likely keep the system weak, no guarantees. Those in the western Gulf and Mexico will want to keep up with it, though.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97650 - Wed Jun 14 2017 09:10 PM

The models are a bit mixed on this, but the hurricane center upped the chances to 30% in the next 5 days.

The operational GFS isn't doing much with it at all, Sunday is interesting though, it splits the energy and sends some of it northward and some westward. Bringing a lot of rain to Florida the middle of next week. The Parallel GFS model does develop something and send it toward Pensacola/Destin, though. (mimics NAVGEM And CMC)

The Euro heads it up toward TX/LA border with a lot of Rain next wed/thursday.

This gives a fair idea of the areas and when to watch this system, we'll track it a bit better when/if it gets an invest tag.



(image from http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/ )

That said, if the storm forms Sunday/Monday it seems more likely to do the northward track, if not, west it goes, but spitting enough energy to bring rain to Florida as well.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97652 - Thu Jun 15 2017 09:04 AM

Up to 50% this morning, the global models are now suggesting:

GFS, never gets too organized, but a lot of energy and rain spins up and gets tossed over Florida on Monday.

Euro: shifts it west and keeps it disorganized, with some rain/energy splitting off to the east, never really develops it. It's important to note the euro isn't latching on to the same area as the other models either. Moves it toward Texas/Mexico.

ParaGFS: Gets a bit organized, but not terribly so, landfall just east of Panama City Tuesday Evening but disorganized, again spitting rainfall east of the system.

CMC: Much slower than the others, develops it near west Cuba on Monday, then landfall near Destin on Thursday. Keeps it fairly organized, but not very strong. NavGem is similar

For those new, the GFS/Eurio tend to be the better models, but they are not perfect. The CMC/NavGem aren't as good for the tropics, but are decent at the overall pattern This general consensus is a bit of a disorganized system, with a lot of rainfall for Florida out of this in the early to mid part of the week next week. 50/50 is a good guess if it develops right now. If the euro is correct, parts of Texas may also get a lot of rain, but the Euro seems to be grabbing onto a different area -- a monsoonal trough--- than the other models that are latching onto a weak wave around 72W in the western Caribbean..

Typical for June, a "messy" system is likely.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97654 - Fri Jun 16 2017 10:07 AM

This system is starting to show a bit better on satellite this morning, but is really large.

The split nature (Euro/GFS) continues, with both being fairly weak. The parallel GFS shows developing heading toward florida (See "Forecast Models" on the left menu).

Another "Split" idea is that parts of this very large area may form into two different areas, one in the Eastern Pacific (Euro idea) and another east (GFS idea), with neither really developing all that much. GFS solution pumps more moisture into Florida. It's very likely at least one something DOES develop out of this area, so it would be good to keep watch over the next few days. The most likely seems to be a relatively unorganized system going into Mexico, but confidence is low on that.


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doug
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97655 - Fri Jun 16 2017 12:29 PM

The split idea is interesting and current satellite obs. hint at such possibility... the EPAC seems to be susceptible to development now, and there is a minor twist and some energy at 17n/83w (approx.) My guess right now is something closes off in the EPAC and nothing organized derives from the W. Carribean.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: doug]
      #97657 - Fri Jun 16 2017 02:01 PM

Recon is tentatively scheduled for Monday on this system.

Operational GFS now shows development in the NE Gulf late on Monday with a weak landfall near Panama City Beach on Tuesday, with most of the energy of the system to the east.

Operation Euro does not do much, but moves energy west into Mexico. Parallel Euro Has something developing in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday.

Still a big model split here, actually GFS/Euro even more split than before. Odds slightly favor the Euro scenario.




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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97658 - Fri Jun 16 2017 03:28 PM

Part of the Tallahassee AFD this afternoon.....

A lot of uncertainty in the extended forecast per above discussion
on model differences. For now will lean toward the ECMWF solution
which takes the tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula
and across the Bay of Campeche through the week.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #97660 - Sat Jun 17 2017 06:15 AM

Morning model runs for W. Carib:

0z Euro moves it to the west starting Monday as a weak mess over the main part of Mexico on Thursday.

6Z GFS, has it developing in the eastern gulf, late Monday, then a messy tropical storm landfall near Destin on Wednesday. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week.
6Z GFS Parallel ramps things up fast in the east Gulf on Monday, and then a hurricane landfall in Panama City on Tuesday afternoon. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week. (just rain)

CMC has a strong TS or Hurricane over Destin Wednesday morning.

Navgem has a mess moving over LA on Thursday with all the rain to the east.

Euro is still most likely (but not by much) the fact it's Saturday morning and we still have a split is a bit concerning, but keep watch on it. Monday is likely the day we'll know, which may not allow much preparation time time if the GFS is correct. GFS is seeing the split with some energy going to Texas later int he week, but the main part developing quickly in the eastern Gulf. It's hard to say much more since nothing has developed yet.

It likely will become an invest later today. Of the two, the Euro is more likely, but still worth watching either way.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97662 - Sat Jun 17 2017 12:24 PM

12z models:

Euro not out yet:

GFS: Weak System/Tropical Storm up into Mobile Bay with most rain well to the east.on Thursday morning.

GFS Parallel: Hurricane into Panama City Tuesday evening. Another area forms in the Bay of Campeche

Navgem: Moves west, weak area of rain in Bay of Campeche.

CMC: Landfall as a strong Tropical Storm near Pensacola Midday Wednesday


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97663 - Sat Jun 17 2017 12:45 PM

Recon mission now scheduled for the area tomorrow.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1730Z C. 19/0945Z
D. 20.0N 86.5W D. 22.0N 87.5W
E. 18/1930Z TO 18/2330Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF ABOVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97664 - Sat Jun 17 2017 01:13 PM

Wave is now 93L


93L (W. Carib Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97666 - Sat Jun 17 2017 06:05 PM

The 18Z model runs are in,

18Z GFS rips some energy off the larger system and spews it off to the north, with a lot of rain on the eastern side, going over Florida, the strongest part of the energy winds up near Panama City Beach on Thursday evening. With the center detaching and remaining a bit over the Gulf of Mexico. The Panhandle and Northern Florida get the majority of the rain. The disorganized center eventually makes it over the Panhandle late on Wednesday.

The GFS Para takes the system and gets it going in the Eastern Gulf with rain across all of Florida and forms a tight center which becomes a hurricane, landfalling near Panama City Beach on Tuesday evening. Then races through Georgia and South Carolina. Another low develops in the Bay of Campeche and winds up just south of TX/Mexico border on Thursday/Friday.

The 12Z Euro shifts the system west, with a possible Depression/TS just south of the TX/Mexico border on Thursday. This is a slight shift north from earlier Euro runs.

Although the Euro is the more likely scenario, we can't discount the idea that a system shoots off and forms like the GFS models suggest.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97667 - Sun Jun 18 2017 12:01 AM

0Z GFS Runs for 93L

GFS, pretty much like 18Z, spins up a system in the Eastern Gulf, tropical storm, and most of the rains shield winds up on the east and northeast sides, with the rain going over Panama City Beach on Tuesday night, the operational GFS doesn't really organize it, but the relatively new GFS Parallel model does make it to hurricane strength and landfalls just west of Panama City Tuesday night. 92L is also likely crossing the southern leewards at the same time 93L would be affecting the Panhandle if this verifies. The NHC will be getting into the time that they'll need to make decisions on Watches tomorrow night into Monday morning, so tomorrow is a key day. Recon is scheduled to go out also. That bad thing is not much development is really expected tomorrow, it happens Monday or likely not at all.


CMC moves the system closer to Central Louisiana and pushes water up the mouth of the Mississippi in the process.

The euro is later in the evening.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97668 - Sun Jun 18 2017 03:48 AM

The models this AM for 93L are pretty much the same as prior. The ECMWF (Euro) is sticking to its prior runs moving it westward toward MX/TX area.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #97669 - Sun Jun 18 2017 06:55 AM

0Z Euro is stronger this morning and still moves west, but gets into lanfall near Port O'Connor Texas on Thursday, which is a bit of a shift north at the end.

6Z GFS Operational is a bit stronger, and into Panama City Wednesday morning, as a Tropical Storm (again most of the rain is to the east)

GFS Para shifted slightly west with a Ft. Walton/ Destin Landfall late Tuesday evening/early Wednesday morning as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

. THe hurricane specific models HWRF/GFDL don't have a good enough handle on the system yet to be of much use.

Impact range is anywhere from TX/MX border to about the Big Bend, leaning more toward Texas still.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97674 - Sun Jun 18 2017 03:19 PM

93L 12Z rundown

12Z GFS, starts getting it organized north of Cuba early tomorrow morning, then heads it up toward Southeastern Lousiana where the rain spits off to the east Tuedsay night into Wednesday, landfall sometime midday Wednesday on SE LA.

GFS parallel is similar to the operational GFS just a bit stronger.

CMC moves toward LA then turns a hard left toward Texas and rapidly weakens as it does.


Euro is a slow westward movement and sloppy, eventually turns into Texas Friday morning near Port O'Connor TX.

Recon this afternoon was cancelled since there is no obvious low level circulation right now.

The center may be trying to form on the northeastern tip of the trough associated with 93L, near Cuba, which may shift things a bit, although is fairly in line with the GFS. Interesting tow atch.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97677 - Mon Jun 19 2017 07:21 AM

Morning models, GFS toward Louisiana, with most of the rain to the east, Florida will likely see extra moisture today/tomorrow. Eventual landfall Thursday morning in Central Louisiana, fairly weak.

GFS Para also toward Louisiana, with most of the rain to the east, Florida will likely see extra moisture today/tomorrow. Eventual landfall Thursday morning in Eastern Louisiana, fairly weak, energy shoots off beforehand toward the panhandle.

CMC takes it in near TX/LA border Thursday morning, weak.

Euro keeps it weak/TS eventual landfall near Port O'Connor TX on Thursday evening.


The system will likely remain a mess, it may be a Tropical Storm, but other than a lot of rain and some minor flooding (Although some areas may see major flooding), it shouldn't be too bad. Chances for it to be much more than that are pretty low, the primarily threat will be the rainfall, potentially well east of the center of the storm.



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doug
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Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #97678 - Mon Jun 19 2017 12:28 PM

Models are one thing but what we are actually seeing is something else, perhaps in this case. There is a vigorous upper low feature that has dropped down from LA coast to east of Corpus Christi that is having a substantial impact on the subject feature.., consistent with the current GFS, a weak surface low is observed north of the Yucatan but it is exposed as the upper low is creating shear over the feature..and the flow around this upper low has had considerable influence on the potential development of the surface low. The GFS seems to want to diminish the influence of this upper feature over the next day or so and thereby allow more deepening of the surface low...
Right now I would guess that this will not become an organized tropical low as it is more subtropical in shape and form.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97686 - Tue Jun 20 2017 06:08 AM

A tough one for forecasters to nail down, given its genesis as a product of a very broad monsoon gyre .. interacting with a tropical wave ... interacting with a diving upper level low ..

The 4AM NHC discussion brings up the possibility of THREE never becoming a tropical cyclone, but instead getting designated subtropical later today. Especially considering its ongoing interaction with the upper-level low to its west - imparting moderate to high shear and injecting dry air - this makes a great deal of sense.

On the other hand, the very last few frames from night vision IR suggest an effort by the cyclone may now be underway to align better with the deeper convection, convection which has been getting more robust since late yesterday. In this regard, it is behaving more like a sheared tropical cyclone. I personally lean more to this scenario, although not by a lot.

In THREE's case, the distinction between subtropical and tropical is more than academic. While the greatest threat will be from heavy, tropical precipitation (flooding) either way, a better (or worse) aligned system could have significant track implications, in addition to the potential for the cyclone to result in an area of more concentrated, potentially heavier wind damage (TC), as opposed to a more widespread, but possibly less severe wind risk (STC).

NHC will probably have a much better handle on its ultimate designation (Tropical or Subtrop) by this evening, but either way 'Cindy' appears to be a very safe bet.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97687 - Tue Jun 20 2017 07:46 AM

Prolific rainmaker in my area. Flooding will be an issue but much of the southeast still needs the rain.

Bit of AFD Tally...

The main focus for this period will remain the track of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three and its impacts for our area. Latest
guidance has come into better agreement regarding the track of the
system with most models converging on potential landfall locations
from southeastern TX to the central LA Gulf Coast. As an upper
level trough pushes westward and gradually weakens to the west of
the tropical system, an upper level ridge will build across much
of the Gulf and gradual intensification is expected over the warm
Gulf Waters. However, some shear will persist over the center of
the low and it is not expected to intensify beyond tropical storm
strength.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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ftlaudbob
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Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #97695 - Wed Jun 21 2017 10:33 AM

It's just too early for all this action.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
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Re: THREE (93L) Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97696 - Wed Jun 21 2017 10:47 AM

The GFS models seem to have performed best on this system, which is a unique system for me...very complex. At first I did not think the models had anticipated that ULL correctly, but in the end actually did...

--------------------
doug


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