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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99311 - Thu Jun 14 2018 05:52 PM

Quote:

Updating 91L/Other areas. 91L is all but gone from the GFS in 6Z this morning, and Euro has almost no support, however the satellite presentation is decent, I'd expect it to hold at 20% development but never develop.

There is a potential for something to spin off the east coast of Florida seen on the Euro model Sunday, which is still unlikely, but worth watching to see if anything comes of that, if nothing else from the proximity alone. Monday morning it has a TS offshore of West Palm Beach, after spinning up from a low that comes off the coast from near Jacksonville the day before.




Just saw this from MLB AFD @ 1451. In ref to the FB post:

Previous Discussion...

Sun-Wed...Broad high pressure ridging aloft centered over the Ohio
Valley extends southward to across the Florida Peninsula early in
the period. This high pressure gets pushed southward to across the
Gulf Coast States through early next week, then retrogrades toward
east Texas midweek. As this occurs, the latest GFS takes a shortwave
trough along the eastern seaboard and drops it southward where a
closed low circulation develops aloft by late Mon over the Bahamas.
Rotating around the periphery of the previously mentioned high
pressure, it continues through the Florida Straits where it finally
weakens into midweek.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 71
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: Keith B]
      #99313 - Fri Jun 15 2018 07:03 PM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion As of 1500 UTC on 6/15/18:
A surface trough is located E of Florida, and extends from 31N77W to 27N80W. Scattered showers and TSTMs are near and ahead of the trough. The trough offshore of northern and central Florida will be overtaken by a backdoor cold front this weekend, which will move S through early next week. The high pressure ridge located S of these boundaries will sink southward ahead of the features. New high pres is forecast to build from N of the area by Tue.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99352 - Wed Aug 01 2018 04:43 PM

August starts with nothing much, the extended EPS (Euro Ensemble Model) doesn't really show much for August, although things change rapidly in September. August 18th or so has a hint of activity in the long range, but not much else. Hawaii may want to keep an eye on on Hector.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99377 - Tue Aug 21 2018 07:47 PM

The Atlantic is still very slow, but a few things of note on the models, late August the 12Z Euro shows a strong wave emerging in the Gulf. The 18Z GFS shows something going in the Gulf on Labor Day Weekend. Neither are alarming right now, but its something to keep an eye on over the next week or so for persistence.

Lane near Hawaii is still the big event at the moment.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99381 - Wed Aug 22 2018 03:17 PM

Gulf idea from last night has gone away, but the follow up is the 12Z euro showing something starting over the Bahamas (From the TWO Wave currently at 20%) on September 1st.

Good news is that there's still nothing showing but a faint few signals (like the Bahamas) that activity might begin to pick up in a few weeks.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99397 - Fri Aug 24 2018 10:50 AM

Still nothing solid, in the models, but the European Ensembles insist things start up in the first weeks of September. One outlier in the models in the 0z CMC (Aka Canadian Model) which forms a system in the Bahamas late next week and has a hurricane into Miami on Labor Day. This is too far out to take seriously, but it does indicate what general locations to start looking at in the coming weeks.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99403 - Sat Aug 25 2018 07:50 AM

Still nothing ultra solid on the models, the CMC still showing popping up in the Bahamas a week from today, but nothing else is mirroring that yet. Earlier runs of the GFS were hinting at something also, but the most recent 6Z does not. Some activity in the Main Development Region in the central and eastern Atlantic, but nothing solid.

The 0Z Euro shows a weak area in the Bahamas next Saturday also. What the CMC and Euro picked up on is the wave that was called out a few days ago as a 20% area, but is no longer mentioned in the TWO. So in short, for now, following that area along (Which is hard to see at the moment since it is so disorganized, in the east Atlantic) is the only thing going on. Virtually No chance for development in the next 5 days, a bit beyond that, maybe.

The very end of the GFS FV3 has 3 systems in the Atlantic in the 2nd week in September..

Conditions are starting to change again in the Atlantic,


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99404 - Sat Aug 25 2018 01:47 PM

operational GFS is not showing much development in the 12Z runs, however the FV3 GFS does show a developing tropical depression or storm making landfall along E. Central Florida a week from Tomorrow. Canadian does also, and keeps it up the spine of peninsula, whereas the FV3 enters into the Gulf for a second landfall in Louisiana as a stronger storm or hurricane on September 4th. The operational GFS has no sign of either of them.

This doesn't mean much other than a suspect area to watch this week as it crosses the Atlantic and watching the model trends. The CMC has gone nearly 24 hours with something developing near the Bahamas next weekend. FV3 GFS only more recently. IF others join in, particularly both the Euro and normal GFS, it will become a big focus later this coming week.

This setup is prime for sleeper waves (waves that don't develop until they make it into north of the Caribbean), which can have the tropical situation change rapidly.




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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99405 - Sun Aug 26 2018 12:08 AM

Nice pickup Mike. Seems to be several models now hinting at something coming across Florida during that time frame. Canadian seems to really blow it up. Interesting side note, if you look at the CVSv2 weekly Accumulated Percip Anomaly, it's also hinting at +2 - +3 for that period, and a +4+/- two weeks later around the 15th - 21st. Long, long time out but still interesting to see.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #99406 - Sun Aug 26 2018 11:42 AM

0z Canadian and 6Z GFS FV3 have both backed off development for labor day weekend, German Icon still does. 6Z GFS and 0z Euro shows a weak wave in the Gulf on Sep 3rd, and two areas in the east Atlantic starting

Based on this, the Atlantic should start up late next week. (the system closer likely won't develop this coming weekend, but still should watch it)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99407 - Mon Aug 27 2018 10:53 AM

6Z GFS shows a weak area making landfall near Melbourne, FL a week from tomorrow. However it is alone, The 0z CMC does show an area in the South Bahamas that goes over the Florida Keys on Labor Day. German Icon model continues to show development east of the Bahamas starting this Wednesday.

Beyond that by late next week, there may be 3 things being tracked in the Main Development region in the Central and Eastern Atlantic (GFS, CMC, AND 0z Euro show this)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99408 - Mon Aug 27 2018 05:12 PM

12Z Euro ensembles at https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018082712-240.html are interesting showng some tracks for next week.



But the main run of the Euro shows it entering near Corpus Christi on Sep 6th. Something to watch closer, as well as other systems behind it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99409 - Tue Aug 28 2018 12:28 AM

Model trends tonight,. tropical sparks, but nothing catching fire. The 0z GFS backed off development in the Gulf, the NAM shows something spinning in the northwest Gulf this Friday, The GFS does show a wave exiting off Africa this weekend, that eventually recurves further west in the Atlantic.

The system east of the Bahamas does not develop.

Nothing has a decent enough chance currently (for the next 5 days) to be mentioned in the official Outlook, It's more of a signal things may pick up in September.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99410 - Tue Aug 28 2018 06:58 AM

0Z Euro has a system developing in the Bahamas late Sunday/Monday then gets going Late Tuesday in the eastern Gulf, with a landfalling Tropical Storm or low end Hurricane in Southeastern Louisiana, late Thursday (Sep 7th). This is from the same area that models were sparking up over the Bahamas this weekend. 6Z GFS Shows this area also, but much weaker, and never develops it so much, but also winds up in Southeastern Louisiana on Thursday. Something to watch even though the area looks like nothing now.



Don't focus on the track of it this far out, but rather the fact something may start to get going later this weekend in that general area.

The Esemble runs give you an idea of the spread, and intensity at this far out is extremely unreliable.


This area still has nothing solid to track, and could disappear in a day or two, important to watch if this thing persists or not this week to see if this happens at all.


The 20% area the Euro develops, but recurves it northward in the Central Atlantic



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99412 - Tue Aug 28 2018 02:44 PM

12Z GFS is much weaker and further north, never really develops the system east of the Antilles. 12Z Euro has a tropical storm making landfall near Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Monday night, then exits into the Gulf near Venice, FL and strengthens into a hurricane... Thursday night (7th) landfall in Southeast Louisiana.

This far out, it doesn't mean much other than yes, this is worth watching for Florida and the Gulf into next week. Impacts/exact track/intensity is way too early to tell. (There's nothing really to track on satellite yet)

Ensembles:


Euro tropical formation probabilities:




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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 387
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99413 - Tue Aug 28 2018 03:40 PM

European consistent for quite a few runs now with that wave getting into the Bahamas and strengthening before and after traversing Florida in some capacity. Would like to see more model consensus but I do put more stock in the Euro.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Global Model Watching in the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #99414 - Wed Aug 29 2018 07:16 AM

Model summary this morning (mainly for the wave near the lesser antilles)

GFS 6z keeps it a weak wave all the way into texas, affects keys with rain on Sep 6th.

Euro 0z develops it over tha Bahamas, depression or TS near West Palm Beach on late Monday night, exits near tampa by Tuesday night, then Pensacola as a Tropical storm by Wednesday night.

Ensembles:



The Euro does develop the 30% chance wave in the east atlanic, but recurves it out to sea starting around 42W. Two other waves are in the east Atlantic by the end of next week.

The GFS also develops the east atlantic wave, but it also recurves it around 42W. Only one other wave shows up by the end of the week., and it makes it much further west before the end of the model run.




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