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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99237 - Thu May 24 2018 09:08 PM

Tropical Tidbits has posted.

tropical tidbits

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: cieldumort]
      #99240 - Fri May 25 2018 04:01 AM

Only a little increase in convection and organization could lead to the formation of Alberto today.

On a probabilistic scale for maximum intensity attained by this system during its lifetime, I'm about 50/50 of it becoming a hurricane.

Odds I would place on classifications reached at least once during its existence as follows:

Numbered 2018 Atl Hur Season Cyclone (sub and/or trop cyclone): 99% ...
Named storm (40 mph - 70 mph) 95% ...
Low-end named storm: 95%
Mid-range named storm: 75%
High-end named storm: 60%
Hurricane: 50% ...
Cat 1: 50%
Cat 2: 15%
Cat 3: 2%

90L has a pretty decent shot of finding itself in some sweet spots prior to eventual likely landfall point or points somewhere along the southern United States - at this time looking as between Galveston, Tx and Clearwater, Fl. A huge spread, as we a) do not yet have a bona fide center to plot from yet, and b) may have more than one landfall. However, it's safe to say that a stronger system would tend to favor something closer to Louisiana/Alabama...

These are personal "Lounge" opinions only. There's still a very small, ever decreasing chance that 90L does not develop any further at all. That said, heavy, flooding rains, are almost a certainty, no matter what it becomes.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: cieldumort]
      #99242 - Fri May 25 2018 09:55 AM

Morning models runs. Interesting the storm is forming off the east coast of the Yucatan now and many models earlier in the week were thinking it would form off the north coast, except the GFS.

However this morning models seem to be agreeing that it may have a shot at getting stronger, and will take a while to landfall, the 0Z Euro takes it into coastal Alabama late on Monday as a solid category 1 hurricane. 6z GFS takes it into Alambama as a strong Tropical storm Monday morning. Florida's big rain day will likely be Sunday, Panhandle MS/AL's days would be Sunday afternoon into Monday


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MarkFSU
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99243 - Fri May 25 2018 10:09 AM

NHC Atlantic Ops
Quote:

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT / 10 AM CDT on Subtropical Storm Alberto located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.




Edited by cieldumort (Fri May 25 2018 12:10 PM)


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JMII
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99244 - Fri May 25 2018 10:43 AM

Quote:

Morning models runs. Interesting the storm is forming off the east coast of the Yucatan now and many models earlier in the week were thinking it would form off the north coast, except the GFS.




Its almost trying to form on top of land but getting massively sheared as all convention is on the eastern side. Its on verge of falling apart or really getting its act together. Like cieldumort said.. 50/50.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: JMII]
      #99246 - Fri May 25 2018 11:31 AM

The dry air entrainment isn't enough to keep models from suggesting a cat 1 at landfall. The german Icon model for 12Z is out and it shows a 989mb hurricane landfalling in Pascagoula, MS Monday night. Forward motion starts falling apart Sunday night based on that one.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99248 - Fri May 25 2018 02:29 PM

12Z GFS is west of the Euro, landfall late Monday night in Southeast Louisiana Cat 1 hurricane. Rain east of there covering Florida and the N Gulf most of the time.

12 Euro takes it right up Mobile Bay Monday night over Gult Shores, AL as a cat 1 hurricane.Monday night.

That General zone from Biloxi to Panama City is the biggest risk, GFS is probably too far west this time, but the general "Stall/slowdown" idea is solid. Points east of the landfall point will get all the weather.

If the euro happens, Areas east of Landfall like Dustin/Ft. Walton toward Panama City could get storm surge and 10-12" of rainfall. The rest of Florida outside the panhandle 1-8" of rain (sw more then central/N Florida)

Tornado potential is moderately high, also.


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kapSt.Cloud
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Reged: Fri
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge (90L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99252 - Fri May 25 2018 06:50 PM

I’m becoming a wee bit concerned. I currently live in Long Beach, MS (next town west of Gulfport, MS). We moved here from St.Cloud, FL. Why am I concerned? This storm hasn’t even made it to the warm Gulf waters and all of the models currently have us in the crosshairs. I’m aware this is not a Katrina which brought a 32ft storm surge over the area where we now reside, but needless to say it’s worrisome.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99253 - Fri May 25 2018 10:20 PM

The 18Z GFS shifted back east to similar to the 12 euro going up mobile bay from the Gulf Shores side as a border line hurricane/tropical storm, the TVCN consensus also shifted east to the AL/FL border.

That said it's looking fairly weak tonight, it probably won't change much until late tomorrow night.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99254 - Sat May 26 2018 07:37 AM

Alberto remains a messy storm this morning, the shear has been able to pull the system to the east more than a few models were projecting, but still generally moving that way, toward the end it slows down and has a window to strengthen late tonight and tomorrow, especially after it clears Cuba and the Yucatan completely.

The models tend to start slowing it down about midday Sunday before it slowly bends back to the west and eventually landfall in Alabama Monday afternoon/evening. GFS is slightly stronger this run than the prior one. Euro is late Monday before landfall near Gulf Shores, AL. Judging by how the shear is "pulling" the system a bit more east than expected, if any shifts in track occur, it's likely going to be toward the east slightly. However the westward pull that the storm will get late Sunday will generally keep it near Alabama, time frame may be a bit affected.

Intensity models show its less likely to reach hurricane strength, but still remains a possibility, the NHC may issue hurricane watches later today if it remains a possibility.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99255 - Sat May 26 2018 12:15 PM

12Z GFS has a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane going over Pensacola Monday night. The trend east is mostly brought on by the center being a bit difficult to get organized. It may shift east again, and is probably why the TS watches went up for Tampa. I wouldn't be surprised to see the big bend get them later today also.

The concensus model is actually closer to Fort Walton Beach, the globals are based on dubious center data, so the exact track is probably a bit off. The bad weather being mostly on the east side is what will cause crazy amounts of rain (already started in S. Florida, it'll creep up to central Florida tonight). Then rain all day Sunday. Points east of the landfall will get the worst of it. Points west will likely barely even know its there. It'll likely start getting really organized about midday tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99260 - Sat May 26 2018 07:55 PM

18Z GFS is stronger, for any of the intensities to verify tomorrow has to be a day where the system organizes a lot. There are signs of it with recon (at least toward the fully tropical system) so we'll wait and see there.

As for the GFS it now takes Alberto over land as a cat 1 borderline 2 hurricane just east of Pensacola in the overnight hours mon-tuesday. This is slower and stronger than earlier runs, but relies on what happens with the center currently over the southeastern Gulf. Most of the afternoon models are taking it just east of Pensacola, including the ensemble clusters.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99262 - Sat May 26 2018 11:43 PM

0Z GFS has shifted very far east coming within 80 miles of Tampa, then bend back west toward Pensacola, landfall near Fort Walton Beach Monday Afternoon Tropical/Subtropical Storm the whole time, this time.


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BayCoGator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99272 - Sun May 27 2018 12:45 PM

It looks like another circulation may be developing just off the west coast of Cuba...south of Alberto's COC.

Edited by BayCoGator (Sun May 27 2018 12:53 PM)


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