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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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TAMPA118
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Loc: Fl
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Ed G]
      #60833 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:45 PM

Hey Ed

My parents graduated from BP high school & most of my family. I graduated from High School in FL.

We lived on Irishtown & my aunt lives on Clifton. Actually I am going up in November. I wanted to go when it was cold & chance of snow. My husband went last year, but I didn't go so I am making up for it this year.

I love the hoagies too. Noone knows how good a hoagie is till they get one in pittsburgh.

Talk to you later


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YANKEE GRANDMA
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #60834 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:47 PM

I'm with you, from the North and I'm waiting for those "cold northern winds" --- BRING IT ON!! [color:blue] [/color] :shocked: [color:blue] [/color] ;)

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meg34231
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: TAMPA118]
      #60892 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:35 PM

Hey... someone before posted that they lived on Summit. I lived one street up on Highland Avenue. We moved down here to Sarasota about 10 years ago. My Dad and his wife live in South Park and they are coming in for a vacation this weekend- I told them to cancel! Incidentally, I love hoagies too, especially band hoagies.

I've really enjoyed everyone's postings. Thanks for keeping us informed! Far more fun than anything else


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meg34231
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Ed G]
      #60894 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:38 PM

Hey Ed,

I lived right around the corner from your mom!!!


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KatrinaSurvivor
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: orlandocanewatcher]
      #60898 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:53 PM

By looking at your post and your canewatcher handle, your post sounds a lot like wishful thinking to me! The little YIKES! at the end kinda gives that away. Let me be real clear on something...I live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and like a lot of other people, the excitement when a storm gets in the gulf is well, fun and exciting...but one day, a Katrina is going to come along and you're gonna wonder outdoors when it's all over (if you live through it), and realize that your immediate gulf coast area is all but gone like we did here in Mississippi. If you haven't seen the photos, our homes are gone, our towns are gone, and we can't even recognize our neighborhoods. Many of my neighbors used GPS readings to locate where their homes once stood. Like you, I've enjoyed the excitement of these storms for years, but after Katrina, I never want to see another hurricane again for as long as I live...like I said, when your Katrina blows in one day, your little YIKES! will take on a whole new meaning

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BrutusBig1
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Ed G]
      #60929 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:33 PM

Wilma will grace the extreme NE Coast of Yucatan with little decrease in strength and will make landfall as a Category 4 storm 15 miles south of Naples and will exit on the East Coast of Florida in the Jupiter area just North of West Palm Beach. Take it to the Bank!

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SCOTTR
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: DebbieInFla]
      #60981 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:26 PM

just going with my gut

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Yankee Grandma
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: allan]
      #60999 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:48 PM

Dear Lord, I certainly hope you are wrong. Although I did see on one of the spagetti charts that a new line has been added and it's further North. I would just like to see it fizzle and go away so no one "gets it".

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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: KatrinaSurvivor]
      #61009 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:54 PM

Katrina Survivor is correct. A friend of mine went through Camille and it made a Kool-Aid Drinking believer of him. Earlier today I was contemplating what effects a direct hit would have around Tampa Bay. If only one of the bridges across the Bay is damaged we're talking major traffic problems. I recall storms that covered US 19 with water from Lake Tarpon. I can easily imagine loose barges plowing thru residential areas because it's happened before around here. Especially in 1921. People inland will drown as rivers and creeks flood. A friend recently sent me a newly discovered letter pertaining to Colonel Hector Braden of Bradenton. When the 1846 hurricane came through Braden was in Hernando County buying mules. After the storm he headed home and drowned in one of the flooded creeks in Pasco County.

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: meg34231]
      #61273 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:16 AM

IrishTown and Highland Ave, Good Lord!

I spent a lot of time on Irishtown as a kid. My best friend lived on Irish town (his mom still does) about 4 houses up from the Clifton. His name is Dave Schneider. We went to St. Valentines grade school.

Highland Ave, man! Have a lot of friends on highland. My parents almost bought the stone house on the corner of highland and summit. I used to play everyday in the woods that was on the other corner.

If your old enough you would remember "the Big Tree" in that woods.

I lived on Summit St until I got married in 1982.

meg are my initials too...

Martin Edward Geary

My brother in law lived in Sarasota for a while and was a bartender at Margarita Maggies.

Edited by Ed G (Sat Oct 22 2005 07:18 AM)


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isobar
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: KatrinaSurvivor]
      #61274 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:20 AM

Quote:

A direct hit on Key West late Sunday evening with 105 mph sustained wind, followed by a fairly quick 18 mph jog up the overseas highway early Monday morning, raking nearly the entire length of the Keys with wind gusts to 100 mph, followed by a sustained 80 mph final smack to Homestead/S.Miami Bch around noon Monday. Total rainfall associated with the core circulation of Wilma on the light side at 2-4", with isolated amounts of 5-7" where training bands set up over extreme S. Florida and the upper Keys NE of the approaching hurricane on Sunday.




-same general idea, delayed by about 6 hrs.


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CrackerBoy
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: isobar]
      #61344 - Sat Oct 22 2005 10:11 AM

Quote:

Quote:

A direct hit on Key West late Sunday evening with 105 mph sustained wind, followed by a fairly quick 18 mph jog up the overseas highway early Monday morning, raking nearly the entire length of the Keys with wind gusts to 100 mph, followed by a sustained 80 mph final smack to Homestead/S.Miami Bch around noon Monday. Total rainfall associated with the core circulation of Wilma on the light side at 2-4", with isolated amounts of 5-7" where training bands set up over extreme S. Florida and the upper Keys NE of the approaching hurricane on Sunday.




-same general idea, delayed by about 6 hrs.




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CrackerBoy
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: CrackerBoy]
      #61356 - Sat Oct 22 2005 10:29 AM

Born in FM in 54 dad in 1914. I have been thru everyone since Donna. Crackers don't leave their homes. May be cultural supidity this time. Gonna hit the GOM and do just like Katrina. The DNA of Wilma puzzles me. Donna went over FL into the GOM made a U-Turn came back and blew FM away. Folks statistically speakin we are way overdue for a 50 year storm and a hard rain's gonna fall. PREDICTION: Stalls over GOM, intensifies before ENE movement. Hits Marco Island with a vengence unseen in history, moves east to south rim of Lake Okeechobee. Destroys USACOE berms with extreme rainfall and winds. Towns of South Bay and Bell Glade will be hit the hardest as LO swells with 15" of rainfall and winds moving counter-clockwise destroy shacks and low lying muck land. Sugar industry is eliminated. Pollutant loaded water drains south into Florida Bay. More ecological damage. Phosporous, ferilizers and pesticides. Pahokee will be eliminated as storm strengthens Class 3 and moves ENE to Stuart. Historical amounts of rainfall will cause more damage than wind. All models relating to 100 year flood will be proven wrong by 50 year storm. No electricity for Marco, Naples, Clewiston, South Bay, Belle Glade, Pahokee for two weeks. Will exit Florida north of Stuart. SFWMD will open outfall to LO and be unable to drain the big bath tub fast enough. This one is gonna be one for the ages. Class 4 landfall Marco, Class 3 exit Stuart.

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TAMPA118
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Loc: Fl
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Ed G]
      #61377 - Sat Oct 22 2005 11:04 AM

Hey Ed St Valentines I use to go there when I would visit my Grandparents. Know anyone by the name of Fournier or Sidick?

Anyway I gotta go. It is a bit overcast, but I am going to take the kids to the zoo. They need to burn off a little energy.


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colleenfl
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Ed G]
      #61438 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:50 PM

Well I was orignially saying Ft Meyers/Naples but I think now it is going to be more like Sarasota I don't know why I just have that hunch. As far as the seas for FL they are saying 8 to 12 feet all the way up to the panhandle for this evening into Sunday. I don't know after that.

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colleenfl
Unregistered




Re: I would like to be different and say... [Re: Mike P]
      #61443 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:04 PM

Why did you wait until now to go find a generator? You should have done that after last hurricane season. I guess that is the IQ of a semihole? Only joking with ya.
GO GATORS!!!!


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colleenfl
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: CrackerBoy]
      #61450 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:16 PM

Remains to be seen Cracker Boy. I too am a Florida cracker as well. West coast will not do as badly as New Orleans/LO. I highly doubt she will become a cat 4 when landfall for FL. She may get bigger for a little while off the yucatan but she wont stay that big for long conditions just are not there. I think the most she would be at landfall will be a cat 3 but most likely a cat 2. Even so we saw what Kartrina did as a cat 1 in Marathon and in Key Largo. There will be a lot of flooding in flood zones but not all of Pinellas will be under water. I doubt US 19 in upper part of pinellas (clearwater/Tarpon/Palm Harbor) I do think go a good part of McMullen Booth Rd and East Lake Rd will be under water. Pinellas will be split into, south of Ulmerton Rd to St Pete will become there own Isalnd. Downtown Tampa will be under water tampa bay will emptied into downtown. We need to see what she does when she gets off the yucatan and what the cold front does if it even makes it this far south. I do think landfall for FL will be 6 hours earlier then what they are saying and this could be an impact on where she will make her turn and landfall. I had been thinking Ft Meyers/Naples but gost I just think it is going to be more like Sarasota now as a cat 2 maybe a cat 1. Good Luck all. It really is a waiting game and anyones guess is as the good as the next the experts don't even know for sure. I think by 2pm today or definetly by 11pm today we will have a much better picture.

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Former Floridian
Unregistered




Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: colleenfl]
      #61467 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:57 PM

Used to fret every season. Not anymore.

Looking at winds shows west side of Wilma has north winds from canada (cold) , sw from pacific, and se from carribean. Bad set up. My theory is that cold air compresses the warm air, making it rise - just like a cold front. The storm is being warmly fed from the se carribean - notice the storms & wv to the east. That will continue.

Other winds - high pressure over fla will keep Wilma from moving east. N winds will keep her from moving north. She will sit and spin for a day or two, then most likely dissipate. There is a hole between the N winds and the E winds at the frontal boundary that Wilma could enter, but if it doesn't do it by 5 o'clock today it will be blocked. If it makes that hole, it will ride the boundary taking it awful close to Tampa by mid-morning sunday.

I hope she dissipates in place.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Former Floridian]
      #61571 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:54 PM

No change from my Wednesday forecast. Venice across to Satellite Beach. Going to say borderline Cat2/1 at landfall. 85 MPH at exit Monday 4 AM landfall.

--------------------
Jim


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ddawes27
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions! [Re: Former Floridian]
      #61715 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:20 PM

I Think it will be a cat 3 hitting Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area.

GO PATS!


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