Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I just arrived back in Manila for work and I see TS Chanchu is headed right here. Looks to be a typhoon before it arrives. Going to be an interesting week in Manila! I'll be sure and update as the government here gives warnings and such. I am really curious to hear how they address a storm in a third world country.
I brought along a digital camera and also a handheld weather station (wind, pressure, ect). Should provide more info than the local tv stations I believe.
Anyone have any experience with Pacific basin storms or anything to add?
BTW...evacuation is not an option here so please don't flame me for staying where a storm is forecasted to head. This storm was not in existance when I left home.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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What is now Typhoon Chanchu looks like it'll pass just to the south of Manila in about 36 hours. There is no mention of this storm in the media here at all. Speaking with coworkers here they basically tell me I'm crazy and a typhoon can't hit Manila and they always go off some other direction. One said "oh it'll just pass by." Can someone who has experience in this area tell me if they are living with their heads in the sand or if there is some mystical power around Manila protecting it from storms?
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0206.gif
Graphic changed to link to keep table inline.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Mon May 15 2006 09:10 PM)
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Although I think I'm talking to myself I notice this thread gets a lot of views so I'll continue to update.
The local forecast and current updates shows wind speeds of roughly half that of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The current signal 2 warning area is for 60-100kph winds and the last update I had from the was already at 140kph winds. I wonder why such a huge variation?
At this point it is roughly 24 hours out from Manila. The Japenese tropical weather prediction center has tropical storm force winds in Manila within the next few hours.
The local forecast center was suppose to issue an update 40 minutes ago. No updates though..
Currently outside we've had off and on showers and it is very muggy. I forgot to take my weather station outside but current pressure is 1004.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Shortly after the last post they did update and it appears they are starting to come to terms with the fact a typhoon is hitting the country. They are still calling it a Tropical Storm, contradicting the . They also still have the wind speed significantly lower than the . Oddly they also have a different name for the storm. They call it Caloy, everyone else in the world calls it Chanchu..
My area is now at a Signal 2 warning (60-100kph winds).
The area currently under the gun is now at Signal 3 (100-180kph winds).
This is on a scale of 1-4 which can be found at Philippines Signal Scale
Edited by Domino (Thu May 11 2006 11:55 AM)
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hockeyucf
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Orlando
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You're not talking to youself! 
Please keep us updated, and from a Floridian who has been through it (several times), don't forget to Hunker Down!
Cara
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Chanchu is passing over the Philippines as a weak typhoon, equivalent to Cat 1 or possibly Cat 2. It did finally get convection wrapped around yesterday...appeared that it may have been sheared a bit before that from the NW, or had some dry air intrusion as well.
While a little messy looking now, it is forecast in the latest warning #16 to strengthen just up to Cat 4 strength, about two days from now, before hitting mainland China -- but JMA forecast keeps it a low-end typhoon during that time period.
I've been kind of busy this week or would have posted on this thread sooner, but I've been keeping an eye on 02W this week.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I know its stupid but anyone see how ridiculously close the forecast track is to the super typhoon simulation discovery channel ran for if the worst case scenario over Hong Kong?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I think it is going to be a little to far to the west on the current track for Hong Kong to get the worst, but since it's at least several days out it's not really possible to gauge. Close enough for discomfort though because the most recent warning (#17) now has the typhoon not missing a beat while travelling over the Philippines, and up to 125kts in 60 hrs! (I think because it'll get some good outflow going, coming under that high?). However -- weakening to 105kts before landfall, still a significant storm. Something to definitely watch early next week, and possibly some spectacular sat images for Sunday night and Monday morning, while it is still well over the open ocean.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Nice to see others out there Luckily, I suppose, this storm turned a bit south. The forecast track a couple days ago had it nailing us in Manila with a direct hit. Today we are experiencing effects of the storm. We are getting rain bands every so often and some gusty winds. Unfortunately there is no place for me to go that is unprotected..but with my handheld station I have recorded as high as a 26.5 mph wind in a protected area.
The pressure is dropping in Manila. Yesterday morning it was 1007, last night on the way to work 1000, this morning down to 998. Dew point is a whopping 78 and outside temperature is 79.
I'm staying on the 16th floor of the Mandarin Oriental and I have a great view of the city. Lights are flickering on occasion but that's about it here.
I am still amazed by the difference between the and the local weather agency. The local agency last night was forecasting for this thing to recurve before ever hitting land and spinning out to sea in the Pacific. Not a single model was forecasting that. Also the local agency continues to call this a tropical storm and downplays the wind speed. I know if I'm getting 26.5 mph winds in a protected area over 200 miles from the center...they are getting a LOT more down there.
Talking to locals they say basically it never is forecasted for any typhoon to hit Manila. May I quote one..."if it does...surprise!" My theory is basically there is nowhere to go here so alerting the public would probably do nothing more than cause panic. Any thoughts?
Oh PS...I work here about 1/4 of the year, the rest of the time I live in Indianapolis. So far I've been here for a 5.8 earthquake, a coup attempt, a stampeed, a mudslide and now...a typhoon.
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Barbiemanila
Unregistered
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I have always had the same question as to why the Philippines changes names of storms and the only answer I have found is "tropical depressions that enter or form in the Philippines area of responsibility are assigned a name by PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration - www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph). This can often result in the same storm having two names".
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) uses its own naming scheme for tropical cyclones within its area of responsibility. Lists are recycled every four years.
If anyone know the answer as to why PAGASA changes the names of storms I sure would appreciate you taking the time to answer our question.
As for the storm, I live on Manila Bay, and do not have a handheld device that tracks wind speed, but can tell you it is WINDY! Palms are almost horizontal!
I have experienced many tropical storms in metro manila and it is just that...a tropical storm. Signal one and signal two from my experiences here, are just a windy rainy storm.
Hold onto your hats!
Barbiemanila
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well I take that back about Hong Kong not being in this storm's sights. just put out warning #18 and it is bullseyeing that direction. Good news is they dropped back on the intensity forecast, and they really drop it down just before landfall, so that while it's likely to be larger, it won't be very much more powerful than it was just before it hit the Philippines.
But even the equivalent of a Cat 1 or Cat 2, there will be the same issue with high rises getting more wind, so definitely something to prepare for in Hong Kong. Luckily they are getting quite a lot of advance notice on this one.
JMA is still forecasting a lower intensity (even accounting for the difference between the 1-minute and 10-minute windspeeds).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Anybody else now slightly worried this may be Hong Kong's big one?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Chanchu bombed last night and is somewhere in the neighborhood of 115kts. Latest (#23) has her max sustained winds to 135kts -- Cat 5.
Last night I knew she was going to bomb, and not increase gradually as was forecast. Convection was almost completely wrapped around by 0000Z...the 0030 water vapor clearly showed dry air being pulled into the center (to mix in and clear out the eye) and I figured by 1200Z the eye would be cleared out (it is still in the folding-looking stage and so looks like it will take more like 24 hours than 12). Slept in, and just got up and fed the furball, and the microwave pass (attached) was just posted about a minute before I sat down at the computer. Looking very mean. Now she's in the process I think of consolidating and those spiral bands will diminish over the day.
Still targeted to hit Hong Kong dead on. This is extremely grim. I spent about an hour late last night looking at many Hong Kong web cams (independentwx.com) -- it was around noonish their time. I have never seen such a large metropolitan area (over several islands) or as many high-rises in my life, as many as four or five NYC and north Jersey put together. And all the islands are connected by tunnels. I couldn't get to sleep until after midnight after seeing all that and the sat images. I just hope it works out that various factors combine to weaken her considerably before landfall -- but even landfalling as a solid Cat 2 will be a problem for all those skyscrapers.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Oh brother -- it consolidated a lot quicker than I thought it would. Looks like a Cat 4 now. Check out the latest IR (attached).
Per the latest prog, intensity may be capped (albeit, at 135kts!) by lack of a good outflow channel. After seeing the GOM storms this past season we all know how important outflow can be in ramping up and maintaining intensity. Also noted that it may have a hard time maintaining that intensity. It appears that regardless it is going to strike Hong Kong area as a very strong storm. I haven't seen anything much about it on our news here, but since they have more warning than we did with , I hope they are able to to make some good preparations. I just can't get all those images of skyscrapers out of my mind.
* * * * *
The rate of intensity increase looks to have suddenly come to a halt, although the IR is quite symmetric, but it appears on CIMMS upper level wind analysis that an outflow channel is developing, and conditions for the next 12 hours look even better for strengthening, so I still think that late this evening and tomorrow morning we'll be looking at 130kts sustained (1min avg) or more. JMA's intensity forecasts are very much lower than . Hong Kong Observatory has it curving east towards the Taiwan Straight and missing Hong Kong, but the reliable models show it dead on for Hong Kong, so I hope that people there are getting the right message and preparing.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun May 14 2006 02:19 PM)
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Tiff
Unregistered
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Hello,
I am writing to see anyone has an idea of when Chanchu is predicted to make landfall in Hong Kong.
My husband is there for work and has booked a flight to come home on Tuesday afternoon.
Earlier I read it was expected to hit on Thursday, I just wanted to check for any information that may have changed.
Thank you
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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It is confirmed at Cat 4. The IR images from between 1800 and 1830Z changed the pressure/max winds from 927/115kts to 910/130kts. And the eye still hasn't cleared out. The area to the NW that was having some trouble is pretty much filled in. The storm is very compact and the IR is looking like a plate (attached) -- not quite as good as Mala at her peak but very impressive, cloud top temps at least -85. So what will we be looking at by late tonight? Worse, there's time for an to complete before it gets close to landfall. Outflow has continued to improve as well.
Gee first Monica, then Mala, now Chanchu.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Hello, I am writing to see anyone has an idea of when Chanchu is predicted to make landfall in Hong Kong. My husband is there for work and has booked a flight to come home on Tuesday afternoon. Earlier I read it was expected to hit on Thursday, I just wanted to check for any information that may have changed. Thank you
That is cutting it very, very close. The airport may be closed by then. He should leave sooner if he can, or at least get off the islands and leave from an inland airport.
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0206.gif
This graphic will show you the times the winds will start affecting the islands (add eight hours to the UTC time that is displayed). The graphic will be updated shortly with the next warning at 4pm CDT.
Oh and this is why the update to 130kts...attached the AQUA microwave from 1801Z (taken just about at the same time as the IR I posted earlier).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Headlines of the paper this morning "35 dead in Caloy's wake".
Most of those 35 drowned.
There was nothing more than an alert 2 and for a very short time alert 3 issued for anywhere in the area.
It was downplayed the entire time. The highest acknowledged winds I saw were 115kph and at the time I was recording 25mph winds here the highest alert was for 80kph (I believe it was 80?).
The person living on Manila Bay - I am in Makati City and we didn't get much here except the winds I noted. In Malate there were trees down that I saw last night (large, old growth trees) and there are a considerable number of branches/twigs down around here.
It must be much worse down south where the eye passed over.
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Tiff
Unregistered
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Thank you Margie for the information.
I am horrified. If you have any new updates please keep me posted.
I'll keep watching the links that I have found as well.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Listen, Tiff, this will fall apart rapidly as it heads inland, and so if he can't get a flight out, just go inland.
The main concerns will be storm surge, so the tunnels will be flooded, and also low-lying areas, and then the stronger winds aloft against the high rises. It will be much safer inland.
It is better to prepare now as if there was the chance of a direct hit as a strong storm, and then be glad later if it weakens before landfall, or curves east (not terribly likely but it is possible).
Note: Hong Kong Observatory is still only forecasting max winds of 33kt from the storm. And JMA is forecasting less than 85kt at landfall. JTWC #25 has it at 130 kts currently and brings it up to 145 kts max within 24 hrs. The graphic and prog are not on their web site yet.
* * * * * * *
9pm update -- the next forecast will be out in an hour, and it will be the most interesting one, for a couple of reasons. First, the intensity forecast, as the steady state seems to be ending, and secondly, and more interesting, the move north has started and it appears before crossing 115E. So this may mean a shift in the track forecast, but if so, whether to the east or the west, I don't know. The latest model runs have diverged just a little bit, but the more reliable ones actually shift the track to the west a bit, which would still be bad for HKG.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun May 14 2006 10:15 PM)
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