HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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on september 6th, ed dunham gave us the isabel challenge.. the challenge was to use your amateur forecasting skill and place the center of the storm to within two degrees and intensity to within 10kt on 12Z september 13th... on at the time a lowly tropical storm in the eastern atlantic. right now it looks like storm cooper will come closest, as his position isn't far removed from the 's forecast. if the intensity isn't signicantly lower by then, everybody busts, as no one guessed higher than 110kt.
but, here's another opportunity to place isabel a week out:
where will isabel be to within 2 degrees, and how strong will the storm be to within 10kt, at 00Z on 18 september (thats 8pm eastern wed. september 17th)? post any time tomorrow.
HF 0445z11september
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i'll go first.
isabel 00Z18september
29N 77W
120kt
i'm obviously reasoning isabel will make landfall, and think it will be a major hurricane. in this case i'm picking the odd zone between daytona and charleston for landfall, which is a rare area for a big storm to go. but i'll chance it.
HF 0501z11september
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I'm gonna go with a fish spinner and send the storm out to sea as it approached the Bahamas.
30N 74W 95K
My first instinct was that it wasn't even going to make it that far west and we'd be looking at 71W....
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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27N 78W, 95knots
(First inclination was 28.6N/79.4W)
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Isabel September 18, 2003 @ 00Z
23.7 / 71.6 100 knots
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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28.2 N 78.7 W
120 MPH
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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27.5N
77.5W
115 kts
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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27.5N
76.1W
110 knots
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troy
Unregistered
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74.2W
28.3N
115knots
heading just a tad north of wnw
trending slightly downward in intensity
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Mindbomb
Unregistered
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My answer for the challenge: 28.5 N, 78.5 W at 112 Kts (off the coast of the Georgia-Florida border). Prediction sidenote: I am up here in VA Beach, getting married on Sept 20....outside. So, of course, my prediction stalls Isabel for a day or 2 off the coast, then she heads north, aided by that slowly moving advancing front. Isabel makes landfall near the SC/NC Border on Sept 21 -Sunday and curls out to sea over eastern VA on Monday-Sept 22. Naturally, this assessment is based on my past experiences with emily, fran and other she storms not on my bad luck of planning a wedding during mid Sept.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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27N 79W NoGap,GFS show hole thier on day 7 on 500hpa there almost all models are keeping Izzy low with slight been N at 120hrs.110knts
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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29.8N 78.9W 95kts
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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This is tough....many, many possibilities.
I don't think Isabel will have made landfall at that point in time. I do think it'll be near the Gulf Stream, and I don't buy a substantial weakening trend between now and then.
My best guess? A WNW trend for the first few days, with a slow forward speed, followed by some jogs both NW and W. As for a position and intensity estimate?
28°N, 76°W, 120kt.
My best guess for beyond that places the greatest threat between Wilmington and Daytona Beach...my eventual track thinking is not far off from HF, in calling for a possible uncharacteristic landfall region.
But with this kind of forecast, I'm probably way off!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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In reality, mine anyway...I still hold to a position @ 9/13 12Z of 22.8 / 63.2 @ 95knots. I see I may come close on track but may blow the kt/mb. I would like to see a turn north and it still may happen but as of this am I see it as I posted this am at 23.7 / 71.6 9-18 00Z. Maybe the factors will be very different then and let her spin fish 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Here's what I think....
26.4N
74.1W
Max winds..... 110K
Direction WNW at 9K with a forecast to shift to a more NW direction... potential impact to SC and/or NC...
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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23.5n 69.9w 115 knots
Hope I'm wrong and its farther North and East.
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Jara
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2091
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Well its time to sign in. Did this at work so I'll probably go down in flames with it because of the recent slowdown (but I'll have lots of good company). 18/12Z 28.5N 76.9W 115kts
Moving NNW at 14kts.
Guess it would help if I forecasted for the correct time:
18/00Z 27.5N 75.5W 115kts
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2003 08:47 PM)
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Yep! Some of us be burning, that is the way it goes I guess. I feel pretty good about it right now but..time...time...time!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Wow. There are a lot of similar predictions (relatively similar on a global/oceanic scale). It seems as though everyone has it south of the GA/FL border - a bit East of C-N FL, some further south. Everyone's got it at least as a Cat 2 - mine may be underdone @ 95knots.
As for the ultimate landfall, I've already put mine out in the last news article. I'm calling for landfall between Charleston and Wrightsville Beach next weekend (Sunday - no way to tell). As noted in that thread, Super Typhoon Maemi offers a shot at some real clues 6-10 days downstream in the US. It doesn't often happen this close, but you might recall both of the storms originally were bottom heavy, and both developed into classic, intense storms.
I guess we'll see.
Awesome indeed.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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27.2N 78.5 W 105 kts.
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Dave
Unregistered
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So you are saying you think it will landfall in Melbourne?
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2091
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Not even close - look at the movement that I posted for the 12Z position. Its way too early to say where this one is heading.
ED
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I'll place it at 26.2 N 75.2 W with winds at 115 kts.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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No Ed is Offshore Melbourne by a couple of degrees, probably heading to the Carolinas. All of these are too close for comfort though as we're at 28N/80.1W.. that's not my guess. I'll say 26.2N/74W, moving NW at 10 knts; 95knots.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Why not....
31.7N 80.5W ... just off the GA/SC border.
120MPH
Allison
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Allison
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Bill B
Unregistered
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Gee, thanks Alison.
Bill here at 32N 80W 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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ah, don't worry bill. SSTs around 80F in georgia coastal waters.. so anything strong would probably be on the slide when it comes in...? unless bastardi's perpendicular coast-strike gradient tightening comes into play...
well, i used to live in hinesville.. savannah hasn't taken a good hard lick since the 1800s, with an odd 1 or 2 every 20-30 years in the 20th century. sorry to say you guys are long overdue.
HF 1748z12september
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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around 500 views, and less than 20 guesses? come on, thought you guys were braver than that.
HF 1750z12september
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Sorry Bill B... but it should encourage you to know that I have no meteorological training whatsoever, and my guess is based almost entirely on the similar-tracked hurricane of 1893...
The phrase "grain of salt" comes to mind... 
Allison
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Allison
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Steeldrum
Unregistered
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33.0
78.2
95knts
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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28/76 115k
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Major error on my part I just noticed running new software and imputing...... I should have said 27.3 NOT 23.7. My mistake so you can discount me from the running if you wish. I just kept looking a 23.7 then at my map w/ my plot and I said to myself this does not add up  Anyway 27.3 / 71.6 @ 100kts. for the record.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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storm cooper, for attempting to cheat i hereby banish you from the competition. do not pass go, do not collect $200.
nah, considering you nearly nailed the last one, and played it conservative.. i saw your post and wondered what the hell you were doing. anyhow, this is just for fun.. not like you can be 'disqualified' or anything. to be honest, you need not be anything more than lucky to win at this, if you know just a little about how hurricanes behave.. of course if you get things right all the time or go through and explain your forecast philosophy and it checks out.. well, then you might start turning heads. that's what this is all about, getting better at our hobby.
HF 0517z14september
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prideman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Darlington, SC
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78.8
31.5
125knts
I know I am late, but I am a newbie in here to so figure I would throw in a free shot to get warmed up. I just don't see it turning north with the models. This thing is gonna have a mind of its own.
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prideman
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Well I think I am as close as I will get at this point right now 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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OK..landfall. I am thinking more like about 60hrs out from now...34.6 / 76.8, 100 knots, 990mb
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Well if she sits still for another day I'll pretty much have her pegged  She is only a few degrees off my guess and only 5 knots too much...and they keep saying they are being generous. *does the how did I guess this dance*
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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safe to say you've gotten closest.. you will be a little southwest of the 8pm position, but within 2 degrees. your forecast intensity is on the money unless something big happens today. nice job, domino.
HF 1356z17september
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Steeldrum
Unregistered
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Out of 22 who threw out prognostications, 5 were within range on latitude, and 7 were within range on longitude.
5 had the intensity pegged.
4 had two of three of the parameters.
But only Domino had all three.
Off by a degree and a half of latitude, 0.4 degrees of long and dead on on intensity.
Good job, Domino!
Tell us your secret!
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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My secret is so deep that not even I know it I've been dining off crow for a year or two on here now...about time I got to have some prime rib.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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domino, how does it feel to beat the ? don't be too bashful, you made a good call.
HF 0350z18september
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I have to give everyone on this site credit for this one... before I came here all I knew was that a hurricane was a bunch of wind. Everyone here has done a great job helping and I've learned quite a bit from you all over the past couple years. Now if I can just predict what the weather will be like in the Bahamas for my cruise next week...
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