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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
98L.Invest
      #40752 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:51 PM

already has a nice swirl

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40829 - Sat Jul 09 2005 02:47 PM

NHC Discussion segment on 98L

"CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1013 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WITH BANDING FEATURES COMING ON THE N SIDE AND QUIKSCAT INDICATING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER CONVECTION REMAINS MEAGER AS THE SYSTEM IS
ENTANGLED WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR. "


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Jamiewx]
      #40831 - Sat Jul 09 2005 02:48 PM

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: MikeC]
      #40845 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:10 PM

thanks

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40846 - Sat Jul 09 2005 03:11 PM

NOT ALREADY!!!!!!

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #40895 - Sat Jul 09 2005 04:17 PM

Yikes! Can't Mother Nature at least wait until Dennis has made landfall? Reminds me of last year a bit. I lived in Orlando then, we would just get our power back and schools would resume from one hurricane, when the next one was on its way.

Is it a possibility that the remnants of Dennis could help push this area away from the continental US?

Thanks for the map also. I know the forecast will greatly change over the next week, as when the first models on Dennis came out, it appeared he was on a much different path than he actually took.

I guess we have to brace ourselves. It's a long season. No sense in getting worked up about a storm until we have to. I really enjoy tracking the storms... I just wish I could track them from Iowa or Kansas, our somewhere where my own home wasn't in danger.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #40954 - Sat Jul 09 2005 05:22 PM

not nuch convection with it but has a well defined axis. long as it keeps this for now watch out. lack of convection maybe due to the SAL (saharan air layer) here some images of the SAL

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40955 - Sat Jul 09 2005 05:23 PM

sorry the site is down i'll try to get somewhere else

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40983 - Sat Jul 09 2005 05:56 PM

there is some convection firing now. and look at the wave currently comming off the coast of africa in this shot

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41001 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 PM

What's a good site to get the latest updates on waves, such as 98L?

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41092 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:20 PM

Here are some links for invest info

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
If the above does not work this is an alternative
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
PCBeach Weather-Tropics
CIMSS Tropical Cyclones


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41112 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:39 PM

those are the site i would have suggested oh well lol

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41175 - Sat Jul 09 2005 09:24 PM

Wow, thanks! Much appreciated.

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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA 28.47N 81.27W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41288 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:01 PM

Did anyone just hear Fox weather local Orlando affiliate just now talk about the 2 waves coming off Africa. They said that no need to worry about those that the water is too cool right now to develop? When I heard Dr Lyons earlier mention them both and seemed to infer something there to be watching?

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Girlnascar]
      #41291 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:04 PM

May have to wait until the waves get to about 45 to 50 West before anything significant occurs with them.

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41301 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:19 PM

At least with these two, it appears (now) that the Gulf of Mexico will be spared.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Girlnascar]
      #41311 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:29 PM

If you look at the models, the high backs off way to the east and it is likely the first one will be a fish spinner. Not sure about the second one, but it is so close behind the first that it, too, will likely be a fish spinner.

Bill


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: BillD]
      #41320 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:49 PM

Quote:

If you look at the models, the high backs off way to the east and it is likely the first one will be a fish spinner. Not sure about the second one, but it is so close behind the first that it, too, will likely be a fish spinner.

Bill




As close as they are, they also may interfere with each other's development.


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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41656 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:36 PM

I have wondered about that -- being that close together what effect do they have on each other?

Stacey


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: yecatsjg]
      #41663 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:47 PM

One would usually take hold over the other and cause it to weaken, whether through shear (from outflow) or assimilation of the weaker system. However, these two "systems" are 20 degrees longitude apart from each other at this time, making any impacts on each somewhat unlikely at this time. The biggest impact down the line could come if the first wave develops into a significant entity and churns up the waters behind it for the other system -- really, if we get two systems out there now, I don't think the waters would be able to support much more for awhile, but then again...this is the 2005 hurricane season.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: yecatsjg]
      #41664 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:55 PM

disagree. there's another thread with the same topic... the GFS recurves the second one... typical knee-jerk response. most of the globals are tracking the energy of the leader east to florida. the second revs up (more than it will) early on and gets latitude, finds a trough weakness and goes up near bermuda.
problem is, the first one is developing and will respond differently. it may indeed end up near florida, or perhaps a little further north. the second one i'm holding the jury on; if it gets strong, yeah, that ridge weakness scenario looks right. but i'm fairly sure it will be on a lower trajectory path as well. since nothing has the storm out in front of it right, i don't reckon it has the environment for the second...
ah anyway, what do i know. i am pulling for a hurricane or near hurricane in the islands on july 14th, and perhaps a sixth tropical cyclone of the season around mid-month.
okay, no more wacky scenarios.
HF 1855z10july


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41684 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:30 PM

So far this season has been 4 for 4... four systems... four making landfall. As long as these two stay on a more northerly path and not into the Gulf, I'll be happy.

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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41794 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:17 PM

Quote:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART






Looks like more sleepless nights spent glued to the computer by late next week.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41800 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:27 PM

Are we to infer that we have a similar....I said similar, not exactly the same, setup as last year with Strong High Pressure dominating the Atl? It seems that it may even be more dramatic forcing more Hurricanes into the Gulf and further to the Central and Western Gulf states.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: cjzydeco]
      #41882 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 PM

If this season does not slow down my wife is going to kill me LOL

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Hankler
Unregistered




Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #41933 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:32 PM

Tazmanian, I know what you mean!!! haha. I dont think its going to get any better...

My site: Hurricane News


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: 98L.Invest [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #41979 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:57 AM

I hear you. I`m lucky mine didn`t kill me last year. Looks T-5 might get into the Bahamas next week as a hurricane. Its are turn to battle here on the east coast it looks like. Early next week might be very interesting for Florida again. 2005 is with out a doubt going to be a monster year when it comes to the tropics I believe. Us Floridians need to be ready for the next round. The Cape Verde`s are coming and theres nothing we can do to stop them. Just be prepared.........Weatherchef

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