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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - FutureTropical Depression 14
      #52414 - Tue Aug 30 2005 09:37 AM

Soon to be upgraded Tropical Depression 14 (Invest 91L) located near 12N 36W at 30/12Z should move west northwest, perhaps northwest, over the next couple of days and then back to west northwest later in the week. Modest shear should minimize intensification for a couple of days with a more rapid intensification thereafter as the shear relaxes. System should attain Tropical Storm status by the end of the week.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2005 09:45 PM)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52435 - Tue Aug 30 2005 10:24 AM

Thanks for the update Ed. This one seems to command some attention for now. I find this site has the most helpful/useful/up to date information. People in my office were saying about Katrina how they didn't know it was even a storm to watch until 2 days before. I told them all she was actually the remnants of XTD 10 and how I was watching her since mid August. They were shocked and asked how did I know. I told them all of this website! They'll have no excuses now if 14 becomes something to watch.

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52437 - Tue Aug 30 2005 10:26 AM

Wow, not what I wanted to hear. Looks like things are in full swing,will we make it through Labor Day week-end without the threat of a hurricane hanging over our heads?

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #52440 - Tue Aug 30 2005 10:39 AM

Can Skeeto do up a map on this with for now tracks??

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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.22N 81.56W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52444 - Tue Aug 30 2005 11:17 AM

Ed, I noticed you called it "soon to be upgraded TD14". Do you know when it will be upgraded? I can't find anything from the NHC at 11 for it, and the TWO is still for 5:30AM.

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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.22N 81.56W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52450 - Tue Aug 30 2005 11:35 AM

No new TD at 11 from the NHC. The 11:30 TWO only mentions that the enviornment will be growing more favorable and a new TD could be form in 24-36 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/301522.shtml


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #52451 - Tue Aug 30 2005 11:37 AM

How about the mid-Atlantic large area of disturbed weather, including X13, anyone think this is going anywhere:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.22N 81.56W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ed in Va]
      #52472 - Tue Aug 30 2005 12:12 PM

To my untrained eye, it appears to be heading N or NE in that link you provided. I think it's too high to be a factor for the US and would likely be a fish spinner if it developed.

The potential TD14 that Ed mentioned above is lower, so that might be a different story. Time will tell.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #52499 - Tue Aug 30 2005 01:01 PM

Here are some X13 models that will make you dizzy. Looks like X13 with a hangover:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL132005

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #52506 - Tue Aug 30 2005 01:17 PM

Quote:

Wow, not what I wanted to hear. Looks like things are in full swing,will we make it through Labor Day week-end without the threat of a hurricane hanging over our heads?




agreed Debbie, my birthdays on monday and i don't want to feel like this is the best bithday ever if people are under the gun for a hurricane

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: Ryan]
      #52534 - Tue Aug 30 2005 02:27 PM

Happy Birthday Ryan make your wish earlier and maybe it will just go away. Seriously though, I hope this thing doesn't develop.I spent Labor Day with Frances last year (hunkered down)

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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.22N 81.56W
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 14 [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #52603 - Tue Aug 30 2005 05:43 PM

5PM NHC advisory indicates that TD14 should develop in the next 24 hours or so and that TD13 is regenerating and we might see advisories issued again in 24 hours or so. Here goes a busy September!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/302126.shtml


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Future Tropical Depression 14 [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #52699 - Tue Aug 30 2005 09:50 PM

The wave that looked like it was about to become TD 14 earlier today has weakened, however, a second wave in the same general area near 15N 37W at 31/00Z looks like it has a better potential to evolve into TD 14 in the next 24 hours.
ED


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Off the Florida coast? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #52722 - Tue Aug 30 2005 10:29 PM

From local WPB Met.:

Well the situation does and can happen when we get later into hurricane season and into October that fronts begin to move down into Florida but because of the warm waters yet these fronts usually stall. In this case Katrina becomes part of the entire hemispheric weather pattern and overall becomes an extratropical low..since this is a strong system for this time of year a front this early is unusual given the front coming toward us and the very warm waters now any front that breaks off from the parent low of any kind up north and high building north and west of us this can take any broken or left behind front to turn into an interverted trough and in most cases a tropical low can develop.. conditions are fair to good in the NW Bahamas and upper level winds are of a weak shearing state which means we will need to keep watching for this front as it moves toward us Thursday and Friday it will stall just offshore and the GFS has been consistent every run on the development of a tropical like low..this is expected to be held in place by a weak trough at mid levels and may drift southwest with time getting close to our coast by later this holiday weekend or early next week..if it sits near the very warm waters it can develop into a tropical storm or worse..right now though the model even adjusting for errors on pressure development intensity keeps it a weak low but the potentialis there for a tropical system to worry for us along our east coast...it may sit for 2 to 3 days before finally lifting northward late next week...It is important to keep watch on this...not to panic or call for the doomsday event but we always must keep on our toes with any situation like this one when it is very consistent on the models too...the GFS..!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Off the Florida coast? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #52854 - Wed Aug 31 2005 02:23 AM

Thanks for the update. I for one will be watching this site so I can monitor the situation. I spent last Labor Day with Frances and have my fingers crossed.

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Danny From Miami
Unregistered




Re: What's up with it? [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #53058 - Wed Aug 31 2005 06:14 PM

Whats going on with it? Will there even be a Tropical Depression 14?

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lonny307
Unregistered




Re: What's up with it? [Re: Danny From Miami]
      #53083 - Wed Aug 31 2005 08:19 PM

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/newreply....part=2&vc=1

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lonny307
Unregistered




Re: What's up with it? [Re: Danny From Miami]
      #53084 - Wed Aug 31 2005 08:22 PM

oops. try this. lee formed at 5pm. looks like a fish:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/312025.shtml

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Danny From Miami
Unregistered




Re: What's up with it? [Re: lonny307]
      #53100 - Wed Aug 31 2005 09:16 PM

That was Depression 13...

Theres a wave behind it but it is forcasted to follow right behind this one to the north...no threat to land

But theres even one behind it..well have to keep an eye on it; it may follow the other two


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
11 AM [Re: Danny From Miami]
      #53238 - Thu Sep 01 2005 11:24 AM

Tropical Depression 14 forms.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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