F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: What's up with it? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #53241 - Thu Sep 01 2005 11:30 AM

Just FYI....TD 13 is named. Its name is Lee - a fish spinner (most likely)

Here's TD 14:

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/14L.NONAME/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: What's up with it? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #53244 - Thu Sep 01 2005 11:35 AM

Danny From Miami - Here....you may want to read this: It was post by HankFrank (mod) on another thread here @ 9:19 this morning:

Quote:

the basin is likely to go quite active next week. here's the rundown:
nhc tracked the convection and not the center of lee last night.. the center has become more established in the broader low in the area. it won't strengthen until convection redevelops, or maybe the center will migrate towards the convection in spite of current steering to the nw. based on location and synoptic pattern, it has zero chance of affecting land.
91L has likely been a tropical storm since late yesterday. it's maintained a t-2.0 in spite of running underneath an upper trough, and has a vigorous surface circulation that is occasionally firing convection. now it's working into the exit region of the upper low, so the prospects of further development are good. wondering how many more advisory cycles the NHC will say 'thats not a tropical cyclone' when it looks better than Irene did for days. some of the models are taking it more westward than earlier, but the long term trend should be north of the islands and nw to the bermuda vicinity. i'll get to what's happening up there in a minute.
92L has some serious long term prospects if it can get organized. numerous track models are strengthening it into a hurricane and moving it into the caribbean. there may be a good deal going on to the north that will add great uncertainty to the long-range... GFS has it slowly recurving in the western atlantic for days (and doing a loop by the end of the last forecast run.. in mid-september). the system is sheared from the east, but maintaining a t-1.0 rating... has for a day now. probably won't start any real development (and most all guidance suggests it will) until it nears/passes 40w.
western atlantic and gulf... still several model depictions of what happens here, and none of them are that comforting. this situation is something i learned to look for from mr. joe b, and the models have been getting steadily more aggressive with it.. the pattern pulse. Katrina's wake trough is pulling out and leaving ridging aloft to settle off the east coast, while a large upper high digs in over the eastern u.s. and synoptically forces pressure falls from the eastern gulf out to near bermuda.
various model response to this... CMC develops a storm off the east coast that is moving towards the mid atlantic... most of the other globals spin up a duet of lows.. one near bermuda and one near the bahamas. GFS has the bahamas system moving across florida and the gulf into texas.. NOGAPS has a similar pair but a shorter run... euro has three weaker features, but one migrating into the gulf, another moving towards the SE, and another staying quasi-stationary near bermuda. of the model runs, the eastern-most in the low pressure series appears to be interacting with 91L... lee appears to be out of the picture. the system from 92L, if it comes to pass, will be moving in to the south of this large area of unsettled weather.. how it will interact is dependent on an already uncertain complex set of features to the north.
suffice to say, we may have a substantial burst of activity, and several models are depicting a significant system entering the caribbean, and activity potentially in the gulf or near the atlantic seaboard. could be getting busy over labor day weekend/into next week.
HF 1319z01september





He always has (along with the other METS/MOD here) up to date, sound information.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Danny From Miami
Unregistered




Re: What's up with it? [Re: native]
      #53369 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:15 PM

thanks for that.. looks like another fish spinner. we'll have to keep our eye on the other wave and maybe even this one.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 17 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 17218

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center