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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #65156 - Sat May 13 2006 11:47 AM

I forgot to predict when I thought first named storm would occur. I believe that would be the 2nd week in August. for 2 reasons.
1) People are NOT complacent this year. I already have people asking me what I think at work.
2) It is still very cool for nearly the middle of May here in Central Florida.( Don't ask the construction workers).
The moisture is not consistent over land or even near land.
3) Unless there is more than usual political derrier covering, they will not be quick to name storms that are far away(not in Gulf of Mexico) to save the names for the threatening ones.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: may updates [Re: Tak]
      #65157 - Sat May 13 2006 05:39 PM

Ha ha. I posted a date yesterday just to get in the spirit of the thing, and had no idea I'd be looking at my first tropical wave of the season today! HF, did you have a crystal ball? Shear ahead of the wave is dropping off and there is even a chance it may make it into the Carib. If it does then something could get cooking.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65162 - Sat May 13 2006 07:39 PM

Minor adjustment to 15/9/2 with first named storm on 7/23.
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: may updates [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #65164 - Sat May 13 2006 07:52 PM

I will stay with 14/6/4. First named on June 3rd. 8 days off. Not too bad

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:57 AM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: may updates [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #65167 - Sat May 13 2006 08:53 PM

I am on record at another site for 20/12/6.
My first US landfall was July 12th.

My thoughts have been for the greater threats this year being on the EC, due to my expected conditions this year.

Edited by MrSpock (Sat May 13 2006 08:58 PM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: may updates [Re: MrSpock]
      #65176 - Sun May 14 2006 03:00 PM

Howdy

I'll go with 15/9/5; first storm on June 25.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65257 - Wed May 17 2006 04:57 PM

OK - - Here Goes - - sound like 2004 all over again - - so 19/10/6 with the first named storm in the second week of June. :?:

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:26 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: may updates [Re: Wingman51]
      #65260 - Fri May 19 2006 07:56 AM

I'll keep my numbers the same. Scientifically, osscilations in patterns tend not to be extreme from year to year. However, with fairly average SSTs, I believe it won't be quite as active as last year. The cool spring won't affect mid-late season as the SSTs warm up quickly and the continued higher global temperature trend increases the numbers of hurricanes over a normal season, though not as extreme as we saw last year. The likely hood of lots of named storms is high, but I don't expect them to be as strong systems.

Here are my winter numbers, unchanged: 23/9/2

Now, first storm: The cool spring will delay the start slightly, so I expect the first names storm in the 3rd week of June.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: May Updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65262 - Fri May 19 2006 05:55 PM

Quote:

time to make may updates.




I've lived in Florida since I was born 52 years ago.
We have hurricanes every year.
I do not second guess, nor predict, how Mother Nature will perform.
She does what she does.
She does it well.
And as a Floridian, I accept her.

This is something that we do every year. It is not done seriously, however, it does match our guesstimates against the 'numbers' provided by professional outlets. Our intent is to encourage participation, not discourage it. If you don't intend to post your thoughts on seasonal numbers, don't make a post in this thread.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 12:55 PM)


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dolfanblondie
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: May Updates [Re: ltpat228]
      #65280 - Mon May 22 2006 12:03 PM

I think I will try this year. My numbers - 19/10/5
I have been a professional lurker so I hope I have learned a lot from you guys and plan to learn a lot more this year.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Wingman51]
      #65306 - Wed May 24 2006 07:34 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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shellylay81
Unregistered




Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: madmumbler]
      #65343 - Thu May 25 2006 05:44 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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shellylay81
Unregistered




Re: may updates [Re: shellylay81]
      #65345 - Thu May 25 2006 05:46 PM

I forgot the prediction.. =0) I'm saying 21/11/4 .. First named storm on June 24th. .. hopefully, I'm going to Miami the first week of June.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: shellylay81]
      #65379 - Sat May 27 2006 09:51 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: may updates [Re: madmumbler]
      #65385 - Sat May 27 2006 02:32 PM

Hello everyone! While I never paid much attention to the supposed baroclinic super powers of love-bugs (who are probably too busy procreating on my windshield to care), I must digress I was half expecting an early season storm before the month’s end… but lo, the likelihood for such an event is rapidly diminishing; I shall surrender Alberto to sometime before June 15.

I am most likely leaving the state for college in the spring term, so this is in many respects my last season for now.

My numbers are:

15/7/3

Everyone ready? : )

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sat May 27 2006 02:35 PM)


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PutnamGator
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Putnam County, FL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Random Chaos]
      #65395 - Sat May 27 2006 09:07 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: may updates [Re: PutnamGator]
      #65398 - Sun May 28 2006 12:57 AM

I'll go 15 / 9 / 4, first named storm June 27th.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: madmumbler]
      #65423 - Mon May 29 2006 08:09 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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poolwatcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65427 - Mon May 29 2006 02:55 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: may updates [Re: poolwatcher]
      #65443 - Tue May 30 2006 01:57 AM

lots of off topic stuff on this thread. oh bother. i guess i could be grumpy about it, but a messy room isn't the end of the world.
reminder that today, may 30th, is the deadline to add your take. the colostate bunch will issue their update tomorrow. they might slash a storm or two, but i doubt they'll make any significant changes.
HF 0657z30may


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