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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea
      #66859 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:53 PM

Active tropical wave with a focal point near 13.9N 65.5W at 13/18Z moving to the west northwest at 20mph. Forecast movement should be generally westerly for the next few days. System has good convection and in about 24 hours it will move into a more favorable environment for additional development with wind shear on the decrease and slightly warmer SST's (29C). Although this one hasn't received too much attention, some slow development is certainly possible in a couple of days. Please feel free to respomd with your comments regarding this wave and its development potential (if any).
Cheers,
ED


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #66860 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:55 PM

This is my last post from the other forum topic discussing this.....

Here are the pictures:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO, the mess behind it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 13 2006 07:16 PM)


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66861 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:03 PM

Thanks for starting this thread Ed Ive been looking at that wave all day wondering what potential it might have to develop in the next few days.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Nateball]
      #66865 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:09 PM

That's the one I've been looking at.

What do they mean in the discussions when they talk about the "v" shape?

Trying to get myself more educated.

Thanks!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66867 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:24 PM

Because its a V like this: < if you look closely.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

If anyone knows which wave this one is below, please tell me. (the one above is the one we have been talking about).

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #66869 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:32 PM

Looks pretty impressive on IR. Correct me if I`m wrong. Isn`t the North East Carribean known to be an area where tropical development seems fall apart this time of year. Probably wrong, but I know I read about this area being a death zone for tropical systems. Maybe all the the stuff that we are used to reading and knowing about doesn`t apply, seeing that the last two seasons have been either on a record setting trend both storm wise and where the systems form and move.
The second batch of clouds behind it out on the Atlantic looks like there may be a mimimal chance to developement . Is this unusal for this time of year?.......I hope all is well with all you regular posters.....Be SAFE...Weatherchef

Edited by B.C.Francis (Tue Jun 13 2006 04:36 PM)


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #66870 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:37 PM

The clouds behind it:

A DOMINATING 1032 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 38N32W COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN PRODUCING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND ITCZ CONVECTION. THIS LARGE DOMINATING HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.< well have to watch stuff in atlantic and off africa. But for now!:

And yes, it is kinda unusual for this kinda year. But i can already tell this season is gonna be active in the beggining. And the climate in the western carribean in June is favorable for development...it will have to be watched. The islands its hitting are reporting TS force gusts because of the wind surge on the Caribbean Waters.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 04:54 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66875 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:04 PM

The "V" signature they discuss is actually an inverted V, kind of like ^. In the tropics, low pressure troughs and the winds around then result in kinks of the typical east-west flow pattern. Given that the flow around an area of low pressure is cyclonic, you get a northward component to the east of the wave axis and a southward component to the west of the wave axis.

The easterly trades also help at least partially explain why the southern side of the circulation is the last to develop for most systems; it is working against both the trade winds and the storm's motion.

The feature being discussed along 20W/21W is an unusually active tropical wave for this time of year. The GFS in particular is bullish with this wave in terms of development, but all too often last year it was bullish on many waves. If all of those features had panned out, we would've seen about 35 named storms. Anyway, it bears watching, but likely will not develop until the Caribbean -- if at all. It is extremely rare to see something east of the Lesser Antilles in the month of June, so it has that working against it.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Clark]
      #66876 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:08 PM

Ya it has a small chance to develop.. but if it survives(keeps its distinct wave signature and axis) into the central-eastern carribean, it has a better chance.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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HanKFranK
User


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66880 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:32 PM

this's the wave i've been yammering about for about a week. it looks impressive right now, but if it does anything it'll probably get shunted into belize or something. some of the earlier global runs had a stronger weakness near texas that could draw it up from there... later runs are showing heights building across the northern caribbean all the way to the yucatan and driving the wave straight west later in the week. probably too far west for a significant system to turn up.
don't think it's chances are all that high. model support has been fickle to say the least. upper winds should be mighty friendly on it by about thursday, though... so i guess nothing is impossible. mind we've already had an above average june.
the waves out over the altantic look more like august waves than june ones. GFS is building a low with either one... some of the other globals see similar things. the front one at 40w is quite impressive if not a convective marvel, and is more or less on track to move over warm SSTs under generally low shear. broad and dealing with plenty of dry air (and some pushy trades as well), so anything out of it would be slow. the one further east is probably model voodoo like clark says. if it got detached from the ITCZ like shown it would also run up over cool SSTs and mess itself anyway. hasn't been a tropical storm east of the islands in june since 1979; it just isn't something to bank on. june 2000 and 2003 both produced june depressions that lasted a couple of forecast cycles, however.
harder to brush this kind of stuff off after last year, though.
HF 2232z13june


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: HanKFranK]
      #66882 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:34 PM

Can you give me a link to the model runs if possible?

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66883 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:47 PM

Quote:

Can you give me a link to the model runs if possible?


Model Runs

Edited by Black Pearl (Tue Jun 13 2006 05:52 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Clark]
      #66885 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:22 PM

Quote:

...Anyway, it bears watching, but likely will not develop until the Caribbean -- if at all. It is extremely rare to see something east of the Lesser Antilles in the month of June, so it has that working against it.



Did He say Bear Watch?? Already! It's just June 13th.

Logging in this evening there were two areas that caught my eye on the Upper Right Corner of the screen.
Alberto's remnants over the SE US, and a bright white area of cloud over the Lesser Antilles.

Hank, and others have been watching the model runs over the last week and this system has been persistantly consistant (PC).

We'll have to watch this and see if the excessive forward speed will overpower the E Caribbean graveyard of storms. I'm also watching to see if perhaps it makes it to the Eastern Hebert's box benchmark for a SW Atlantic route.

Hebert's Box

Time will tell. That's why they call it weather.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 13 2006 07:40 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 387
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #66887 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:42 PM

I too have been watching this wave all week with HF and today, when most of Alberto was ashore, i looked at the IR and WOW. Also noticed the eastern atlantic wave and the one coming off africa right now. The TWO has given mention to the first two twice now i think. Question tho here is can anybody tell me what criteria the NRL site has for putting up an invest. I would just like to watch what these things do before the invest comes up and sometimes I miss the whole deal.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #66888 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:51 PM

yeah looks as if alberto is bringing a little friend with him on the sw side near yucatan.

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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: nl]
      #66889 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:08 PM

Heres a impressive view of the wave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66890 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:18 PM

Quote:

Heres a impressive view of the wave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html




The only thing I can say after looking at that is WOW..... Get them supplies ready...... Hang on we are in for a long, fast & active season

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66891 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:23 PM

Well, IF this develops.




TRUE! \/

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 08:34 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66893 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:31 PM

Well IF this develops OR not, getting your suppiles ready is good advise. Probably going to need them at some point ....

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66895 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:43 PM

I agree Storm Cooper, I just think this is a sign of what the season is going to be like. Barely is one TS making landfall and there is something out there to keep an eye on. This is already alot of action for June.

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com

Edited by Jenny (Tue Jun 13 2006 08:44 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #66896 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:57 PM

Quote:

I too have been watching this wave all week with HF and today, when most of Alberto was ashore, i looked at the IR and WOW. Also noticed the eastern atlantic wave and the one coming off africa right now. The TWO has given mention to the first two twice now i think. Question tho here is can anybody tell me what criteria the NRL site has for putting up an invest. I would just like to watch what these things do before the invest comes up and sometimes I miss the whole deal.




Okay, a few questions:

1) What's HF (links please)?
2) TWO?
3) NRL?

Every time someone posts a link that's new to me I've been bookmarking it AND sticking it in the links section on one of my sites. (So I can always get to it if I'm not on my computer!)

Thanks!

If you're not on your computer, how do you get to it???~danielw

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 13 2006 10:58 PM)


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fatcat475
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66897 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:57 PM

i'm new to all of this i've always been a weather nut but never really had the time but now that i don't work as much
if the area of interest does form any ideas on where it mit go


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Storm Cooper
User


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66898 - Tue Jun 13 2006 09:00 PM

Your # 1 question is priceless... I'll send you a PM to cover it all....

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66899 - Tue Jun 13 2006 09:10 PM

Thanks!

I write embroidery and other tutorials for a living. Once I get a few other projects knocked out of the way I was thinking about putting together a "Hurricanes and Tropical Storms for Utter Morons" book. *LOL*

Seriously though, I homeschool my son (10) and we take it easy on him during the summer, but I figured this would be a great way now that he's really starting to read well on his own to keep him in school mode AND keep him from obsessing about storms. Any time he learns about something, it takes the fear out of it for him.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66900 - Tue Jun 13 2006 09:12 PM

Got it -- thank you!!!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66904 - Tue Jun 13 2006 10:28 PM

I remember Joe Bastardi talking about June 20th time frame producing a more dangerous system than he thought Alberto would ever be. We are still not talking major category storm either way, but I am noticing the Eastern Caribbean complex looks like it has definitely gotten into spinning. Upper levels only? Or has this made it to the surface already?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66905 - Tue Jun 13 2006 10:28 PM

Clark and the other pros are great and we all can learn so much from them,But is it time to look outside of the "box"?All that has happened in the last 2 years and what seems to be happening this year so far is not like anything anyone has seen.Can the "books" work against you?Should they be thrown out?Are thinking that this should happen and that should happen may be wrong at this stage?Some of what was taught to the pros may not be true now.What has happened lately is new to everyone.Going into the greek alphabet,are you kidding me?Just a thought.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #66906 - Tue Jun 13 2006 10:56 PM

Heh Guppie, I was about to mention the same thing about the "twist" it seems to have. As I was typing this, the weather segment came on from Bay News 9, the met was talking about this. His assessment: it looks disorganized, but since the waters there are quite warm, it bears notice.

Any mets here able to weigh in on the prospects of this?


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: BullitNutz]
      #66907 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:01 PM

Quote:

Any mets here able to weigh in on the prospects of this?




I'm not a met but it could be a mid level circulation.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66909 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:51 PM

WOW

--------------------
~jess~



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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: West FL Jess]
      #66910 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:53 PM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 140306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ABOUT
55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESBORO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66911 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:58 PM

Latest IR Imagery-0315Z. Is showing something that resembles a mid-level circulation. Located near 15.0N/ 65.0W at 0315Z.
Strongest convection is NW of this location by at least 60 miles.

Another circulation is seen near 10.0N/ 40.0W. Little to no convective activity at this time.

Strongest area of convective activity is located near 5.0N/ 20-30W. This could possibly be two separate systems.

Another weak area is located on the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little, to no convective activity is observable at this time. This area is the 'tail' of the convection attached to the remnants of Tropical Sotrm Alberto.


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66912 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:58 PM

My guess is nothing much will come from either of the waves but it still seems pretty active for mid june.

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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Nateball]
      #66913 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:01 AM

I think either from this wave or the one in that mess in the atlantic, there will be atleast a depression some time in june.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #66914 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:31 AM

Nah, our theory actually covers the actions quite well -- why these storms form and last in the conditions that they do. It's just not the classical tropical-type of development everyone is used to, that's all. Where the debate begins is the effect of man on all of this (the global warming debate), but that's a debate best left for another time and another board.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Clark]
      #66915 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:46 AM

The meterologist from Local 10 news here said that the NHC isnt impressed with this wave or the one in atlantic and that this one should move under(past) florida later on. So maybe it'll just be calm here for a little bit but i give a 90% chance that a TD atleast will form out there.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66917 - Wed Jun 14 2006 01:43 AM

Quote:

The meterologist from Local 10 news here said that the NHC isnt impressed with this wave or the one in atlantic and that this one should move under(past) florida later on. So maybe it'll just be calm here for a little bit but i give a 90% chance that a TD atleast will form out there.




That's good to hear, we could use a bit of time to dry out and uh... rake the leaves out of our yards.... maybe put our trash cans upright... here in Port Richey. For all the hootin' and hollerin' they did here in Pasco, there sure wasn't much to be afraid of.

However, I'm more than glad they reacted the way they did. Hedged their bets, took everything at face value, prepared for the worst and hoped for the best. It was an overreaction on the part of the EOC, but "underreaction" can (and often does) kill people when it comes to these things.


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madmumbler
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: BullitNutz]
      #66920 - Wed Jun 14 2006 07:09 AM

Is it me or does it look like that one closest to us is starting to fall apart?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66925 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:20 AM

Yep. I think the TUTT is getting the best of it. It's early in the season. The amazing thing is the size of the waves coming off Africa so early. Hope it's not a sign of things to come. Hoping for at least a weak El Nino so some of these waves will be crushed. I might get my wish later in the season:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

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newbie
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #66926 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:32 AM

I've noticed an area around 25N55W on the 1315Z Atl Vis loop. It looks like it pulled in a tail of moisture from the area around Puerto Rico. Any possibility of development?

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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: newbie]
      #66928 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:48 AM

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.

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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66929 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:56 AM

Quote:

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.




What are you looking at to back up that statement. Please share with us

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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newbie
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66930 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:59 AM

I noticed this area on the 1315Z Atlantic Visible loop.

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Reaper
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66932 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:06 AM

Quote:

That wave near Puerto rico is gonna develop some time this weekend.




If you are going to make statements such as these, please offer a source for your information or, at least some type of logical reasoning behind it...


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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Reaper]
      #66933 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:32 AM

why. I just have a feeling. Plus i have been watching it for a few days and it ebbs and flows with its strengh.


You will see as it gets under cuba. Development will be favorable.


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66936 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:52 AM

Quote:

why. I just have a feeling. Plus i have been watching it for a few days and it ebbs and flows with its strengh.


You will see as it gets under cuba. Development will be favorable.




Steve this site is for sharing facts not just feelings.

If I had gone by my feelings Alberto would have come into my area as a hurricane, but because I went by the facts I was seeing, I knew it would only be a TS and go north of me.

So help the rest of us reach your conclusion share your facts so we can share in it with you

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Nateball
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66937 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:06 PM

Well said Jenny

Looking down near Panama I'm seeing a pretty strong flare up over water. Just seems to be a lot of active waves for mid june.


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steve5304
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66938 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:07 PM

Last time I checked this part of the forum was speculative and public.

Nobody here is a scientician so lets get that straight.

I am merely speculating and adding to the topic of the OP.


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AgnesOfHell
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66939 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:09 PM

Been a lot of discussion on the early signs of the 2006 season. Of particular note is the development of the waves in the mid- to eastern Atlantic, and how this looks more like August than June. Even though those waves aren't expected to amount to much, their very presence hints at more to come.

Is there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.

--------------------
Standing on the shoulders of giants


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Kimberley Clark
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: AgnesOfHell]
      #66940 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:15 PM

[quoteIs there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.




That is a very good question. Anybody out there have a way to find this out? Please share.



--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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Nateball
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66941 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:17 PM

Quote:

Last time I checked this part of the forum was speculative and public.

Nobody here is a scientician so lets get that straight.

I am merely speculating and adding to the topic of the OP.



Speculating is one thing but you said a storm is going to develop this weekend, Jenny was only saying if your going to post a comment like that she wanted to see if you had any facts thats all. We are all learning here, speculating is fine just make sure you try and word it better so we understand your just posting a opinion.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: AgnesOfHell]
      #66943 - Wed Jun 14 2006 12:40 PM

Quote:

Been a lot of discussion on the early signs of the 2006 season. Of particular note is the development of the waves in the mid- to eastern Atlantic, and how this looks more like August than June. Even though those waves aren't expected to amount to much, their very presence hints at more to come.

Is there any way this can be measured and compared against previous years? How about even last year - when did this training start kicking in? Years past - yes, seems like it was August before there were even simultaneous features worth mentioning, if even to dismiss them.



If you mean the wave train coming off the African coast, it started in earnest in July.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #66944 - Wed Jun 14 2006 01:05 PM

Here's a good view of all the areas of interest:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: steve5304]
      #66951 - Wed Jun 14 2006 04:42 PM

The Storm Forum is, in fact, for the opposite -- for scientific discussion on current and potential tropical cyclone features. For speculation, we have the Forecast Lounge forum.

A lot of the discussion on this feature is very nice, but please refrain from making statements as to their development without providing some evidence as to why you feel that way.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66953 - Wed Jun 14 2006 05:44 PM

Storm Watchin Dan by that image it looks as if ithe wave has gotten its act back toegther. Ealier today the wave looked as if it was falling apart.

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66954 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:25 PM

Quote:

Storm Watchin Dan by that image it looks as if ithe wave has gotten its act back toegther. Ealier today the wave looked as if it was falling apart.




That's exactly what I was thinking, but I'm glad you said it first. *LOL* It looked like it was losing its punch before.

What's the geography of those islands down there? Maybe it was getting disrupted by mountains and now it's back over open water it's firing up again?

From the NHC 2:05pm discussion:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.

Okay, question, what do the trade winds do to it? Is that good or bad?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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nl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66955 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:34 PM

man look at the size of that wave thats coming off of africa. what is going on in june? man this is serious stuff.

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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66956 - Wed Jun 14 2006 06:42 PM

Looking at the WV imagery from the GOES sat, it seems this wave's going to be passing into more favorable areas for development (the mid/upper/high lvl winds all seem to align in roughly the same direction West of Hispaniola, as well as a lack of all that dry air) if it continues on a WNW track, but I could be reading the vanes totally wrong, heck, they might not even be representing the wind.

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NewWatcher
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: BullitNutz]
      #66957 - Wed Jun 14 2006 07:20 PM

You are correct is will be moving into an area more conducive for tropical development but the models continue toshow nothing with it or the other 2 in the east. We will have to wait and see.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #66958 - Wed Jun 14 2006 07:34 PM

Not real sure of anything developing in the near future...but as models go...the CMC and MM5FSU 12Z runs hint very slightly at something in this area in a few days. All in all, pretty tame right now.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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sara33
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66959 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:12 PM

I have a good link for the models, I don't know if anyone else has a hard time with the fwd, stop, +1, etc buttons being at the bottom of the screen, so here is one where the buttons are to the right of the maps..Let me know if I totally goofed this up

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Christine,
St. Petersbrug, FL


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66960 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:25 PM

That will work just fine however you missing a few models...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Try this and it is also linked on the Main Page...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66962 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:39 PM

Gang...Couple comments from the peanut gallery here...
1.) Computer models, specifically GFS seem to be firing up lots of interesting nothings in my opinion, but missing some other possible somethings.
2.) Alberto's remanant trough is acting like an old front across the gulf...Has anyone looked at what's moving into the BOC this evening on the tail end of the remanat trough! Interesting...Looks to me like a new surface low is spinning up at the end of it. Huh....
3.) Before Sunset, it looked like the central carrib wave was trying to spin something up again...then...it collapsed. Is there a presence of a mid level low at the very least to the south of Hispanola?
4.) Very much agree, lots of active waves for this time of year in the Altantic. Eventually things are gonna get favorable out there and we're gonna be looking at a lot of things.
5.) There seem to be more posts here...just wondering if this forum might be making it over to the front page. I don't know if out less expereinced visitors are seeing this forum on the right hand menu...but with that said...Many continued Kudoe to the Mods, Mets, and administrators of this website during Alberto. You kept the site up and running, factual, and in check. Awesome!


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: dem05]
      #66964 - Wed Jun 14 2006 08:45 PM

Would that Blob around 70W be considered a tropical wave?

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HanKFranK
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66966 - Wed Jun 14 2006 09:36 PM

wave south of hispaniola is speeding. it's probably going too fast to do much. might be more interesting when it slows down, which should be much further west near central america.
the other two in the open ocean are looking none the better, but still impressive for this time of year. a major convective blowup could spark something, but evolution will be quite slow. climatological odds are against both.
alberto came at the tail end of an SOI negative pulse in the pacific... which is pretty much a shift from the equatorial trades from easterly to backing westerly. backing westerly winds cause a ton of convergence.. and often come in tandem with an MJO wave pulse. in alberto's case that's pretty much what crunched things up and let the system develop.
SOI is down again, so in a week or two we may have another pattern-induced system. the ones in the meanwhile will have to hack things out the old fashioned way, which is very hard to do outside of the much improved conditions for waves to develop that occur in august-september.
HF 0236z15june


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: HanKFranK]
      #66967 - Wed Jun 14 2006 09:41 PM

Thanks HF!

So are we seeing more activity rolling off of Africa than normal at this time of year? Looking at NOAA it looks like there is a lot more to come. I wish I could see the activity for June last year, is there a link or something that might show all of the activity for each month in the previous years? That would be a great help!

Thanks again,
Christine


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Thomas Giella
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #66971 - Wed Jun 14 2006 10:36 PM

Speaking of the SOI it had tanked to around -10 last time I looked. Also all indications point to a return of El Nino conditions again by fall. Hopefully that will take the edge off of the peak of this tropical cyclone season and also ensure we avoid two consecutive winters with drought.

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Lakeland, FL, USA
flycylone@tampabay.rr.com

Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm



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Stormwatchin' Dan
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Thomas Giella]
      #66980 - Wed Jun 14 2006 11:40 PM

It looks likes its dieing down...we'll have to check it in the morning. Meanwhile theres other waves too, right now conditions arent favorable but we kinda still have to watch them in the next couple of days.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66999 - Thu Jun 15 2006 01:58 PM

It poofed.. Well there is something off africa and in the GOM so... just waves.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/atlanticoceansatellite_large.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/caribbeansatellite_large.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/gulfofmexicosatellite_large.html

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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madmumbler
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: sara33]
      #67010 - Fri Jun 16 2006 09:52 AM

Wednesday night, TWC (can't remember if it was Cantore or which one it was) talked about a loop current (can't remember if that's exactly what they called it) that's extending VERY far out into the Atlantic from Africa, unusually far, that will help give "spin" to possible systems. They said if it keeps up, later in the season as we see more waves coming in, that it could enhance development.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Posts: 136
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Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #67025 - Fri Jun 16 2006 10:23 PM

Thanks !
I have been watching the flare up in the carribbean, and it looks like the models might do something with this storm,BUT, it looks to be a fish storm, hopefully it will stay that way! Please correct me if I am wrong Mets??:)
As for the stuff coming off of Africa, I am not sure how that looked this time last year, I only started following these storms later in the season in '05, but looks like a lot of stuff, I am thinking that the SST's are still a little low to give these waves a chance.. Am I correct?
Thanks everyone for all of your help! Always learning!!!

Christine

Edited by sara33 (Fri Jun 16 2006 10:25 PM)


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