Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Small tropical low near 17.5N 48W at 31/00Z moving west at 10 knots. Convection has blossomed in the past 5 hours. Shear is currently light, but expected to increase in about 36 hours. SST about 28C. System has some potential for additional development in a couple of days. Something new to watch.
ED
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Getting busy in the Atlantic. Here are two more areas where I'm seeing some vorticity. 44W 18N and 34W 13N. I'm sure we'll see our next invest out of one these areas of convection soon or both.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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144 hours out onGFS, , and and the 120 hours out on all show a cape verde system with a pressure about 996 mb. What do people think about this?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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BillyG60
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc:
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Cant find any info about thst blob north of PR. Is it upper level low?
Billy
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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
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I am quite sure that it is an upper level-low. Looking at the , things seem to be heating up. Still, dry air & shear has been the big reason for less storms this season.
http://image.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg
Edited by Bee-Beep (Thu Aug 31 2006 01:40 PM)
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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There has been an increase in convection over the last 4 hours at 13N / 35 W. Any thoughts?
Central Atlantic - AVN 
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This tropical wave has good structure (actual latitude is about 10N) but it will soon encounter some modest wind shear. It does however have some chance for additional development in a couple of days.
It is worth noting that the African continent itself looks quite barren this evening - highly unusual for this time in the season.
ED
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Nws/TPC High seas forecasts pick up on a couple of features we have been talking about,GFS, and UKMET initialize what were seeing around 10N. Send it NW looking for weakness in the ridge only does anything with it, morphs it together with the stronger wave that the other models develop. is a strange model always seems to over develop systems.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/marine/MIAHSFAT2
Edited by craigm (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:31 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I wonder how much weight was given to atmospheric conditions being affected by the general dry conditions as well as the amount of Saharan dust off Africa? Surely these must have been considered in trending the number of storms for the season. If not- I wonder if there is a way of incorporating these factors for future predictions.
I wonder how this will impact on the new 98L (13N/35W ) and the others off Africa?
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Sep 01 2006 04:37 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This small tropical low has finally developed and maintained convection and has now been identified as Invest 99L. The system is passing through the southern Leeward Islands. Although not the best of environments, some slow development is possible as the system moves to the west and west northwest.
ED
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