stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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15/8/3 - Thats what came up on the Roulette Wheel, I disregarded the red and black.
-------------------- Jara
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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I certainly, in my very amature way, do not think we are going to get away easily this year. We are dry, and getting dryer. May not make sense, but I go with my gut.
18/7/4
-------------------- Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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I hope your wrong. After 2005 I need a 10 year break. The drought though is a sign of La Nina. The last strong La Nina most storms did turn away. It all depends on where the Bermuda High parks itself this year and I'm hoping way out.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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As I mentioned in the leadoff article, "Please limit your posts in this thread to your own forecasts and reasoning (if any) for the 2007 season.", but I'm going to leave this thread open until May 31st for those of you that still might like to try your luck with a forecast for the season's activity.
Cheers,
ED
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Valandil
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
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As a long time reader and first time poster, I'd also like to give it a shot:
16/9/4
My reasoning is as described above by others ... La Nina and currently high running SST
Vala
Edited by Valandil (Thu Apr 26 2007 05:05 AM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Iam going with 16/9/5...
Overall with Neutral conditions look like the maybe around this season i look for a more favorable enviroment to be in place during this season.Currently parts of the atlantic are running somewhat below normal shear wise for this time of the year.Also SST'S are also running above normal in areas like the bahamas and the MDR region.A few other factors are also involved which iam not going to get into but the most important issue is what will the longwave pattern be this summer?The atmosphere is constantly changing and trying to predict were the bermuda high will park itself this season is not possbile as its hard to predict 2 weeks out.Its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems.
In the coming weeks the pieces of the puzzle will be coming together which will tell us how the meat of the season might look like.Adrian
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here's mine for this year 13/7/4
Hoping for another quiet year, though. Going to start ramping the site back up in May!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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17 named, 10 hurricanes, 4 major (2 cat 5s)
4 US landfalls
-------------------- Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Going With 16/9/6 this year
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'll be watching for Tanya this year.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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I'll chime in with 19/9/6
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I was going to say 15 but decided to up it to 16. I think we have a shot at Pablo. Not very high confidence wise but either it's a busy season or it's not and the water is hot from what I have read and seen. Where they go? Don't know and tempted to call a lot of recurvature type storms in which case we could have a lot of majors but safely out at sea.
Very hard to call this far out. Dust kicks up usually this time of year but whether it stays there or not will be the teller if we have long trackers. I'd say a lot of storms forming around 50-55. A lot of Caribbean storms.
If the high builds in strong we could have lower storms that get further into the Gulf, it's been a while since the Western Gulf had to really worry.
One consistent thing you do see from the analog years in Dr. Gray's report 52, 64, 66, 95 and 2003 is that Florida got hit from the backside as some storm recurved on the SW side of the bermuda high. 2003 is hard to add in there but the west coast was affected by a storm cutting across the state as well. 2003 was a little bizarre and hardest to see a pattern. But... is compelling when you look at the charts from those years to see such patterns.. as well as a lot of dancing out at sea but Atlantic Canes.
So... I'll go with 16 7 and 4
Thanks for letting me join in and read all of your thoughts.
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Don't like that idea of yours for recurving storms up the W coast of Fla. Those are the storms that have the greatest potential for disaster in the Tampa/St Pete area and we have been darn lucky for the past 50 years or so (since Donna). and both came from the back side and we DON"T need a repeat of either of those. Heck, my parents just got their house rebuilt about 12 months ago after tore it all up......let's just hope you are wrong there, although it is just a matter of time for TB/StP.
It's a bit late for my 2 cents, but let me go on the high side...lots of energy out there and VERY hot already with little cloud cover, so we may get high SSTs this summer.....19 - 8 - 4
That an $2.50 will get you coffee at Starbucks
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Tue May 01 2007 04:50 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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No, its not too late to submit your forecast for the season - I'm going to keep this thread open until May 31st. However, please limit your posts in this thread to your forecast and your rationale for the forecast (if any). This makes it easier for HanKFranK and I to tally the results at the end of the season to see who came up with the best forecasts.
Cheers,
ED
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Okay,
I think that I may be a little too relaxed on this year , but I am going with 15/5/3..
A little higher that I thought before, but still hoping for a repeat of 2006!!!
Take care everyone!!
Christine
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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14/8/4 Going to play to the middle this year--that's how I see it happening. Not the 1980s middle, mind you... that's '95-on material. I'll just toss in May 8th as a first storm date, since we'll have this pesky hybrid-looking system thumping the southeast coast this week. Think the landfall emphasis this go around will be early-mid September on the Carolina coastline. That's not me wishing something into the neighborhood, just an educated guess based on La nina-type years.
plains getting hammered again this evening...
HF 0535z06may
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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I am going to take an optimistic 14/6/3. I have finally stopped flinching from that last Florida bout!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I can't remember if I put in a forecast early in the winter or not, but alas...here's my official "pulling numbers out of a hat" forecast. I've been asked if I'm going to do a full forecast and the answer is no, largely because seasonal (long-range) stuff isn't my forte. I much prefer and am better at the short-term stuff!
That said, I'm thinking we will see a season with activity similar to 2004 but without quite the landfall focus in just one area. In fact, 2004's numbers look good to me: 15/9/5.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm probably going to hate myself for this, but with the unanticipated arrival of Andrea, and since your first forecast is normally your best one, I'm going to go back to my original forecast of 14 named storms, i.e., 14/7/3 for the season. Since it is not yet May 31st, feel free to adjust your 'numbers' if the mood strikes you!
Cheers,
ED
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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....Will go with the following...
19 named storms
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
WW-911
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