CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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May 15th is the first day of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, which 15 days before the Atlantic one.
Activity in the Pacific many years seems inversly related to the Atlantic. (If the Pacific is super busy, the Atlantic is a dud, and vice versa). However some of the past several years, that's been wrong. An average Pacific season includes 15 named storms, with 9 hurricanes.
The eastern pacific basin includes any storms that form in the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of 140oW.
This year's Eastern Pacific Storm names are:
Alma, Boris, Christina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevive, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Kenna, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke
Most Pacific storms don't threaten land, although the ones that do usually effect Mexico or islands off its coast. Sometimes the storms will near California (but rapidly weaken because of colder water) and bring rain to the Southwest.. Occasionally storms will work its way close to Hawaii and become Central Pacific Storms. Western Pacific storms are called Typhoons, and Southern Hemisphere Storms in the Indian ocean are usually referred to as just Tropical Cyclones. (Northern coast of Australia has to deal with them... luckily most of that part of Australia isn't populated.)
Last year Hurricane Adolf made it to category 4 status in the early season on May 28th. Which is very unsual for the Eastern Pacific. I doubt will see a repeat of that this year, but if you are "pining for something to track" the eastern Pacific is the spot to watch right now.
We focus squarely on Atlantic systems on flhurricane.com, and only mention Pacific ones in passing (with the notible exception if they threaten Hawaii). Typhoons and Cyclones aren't covered at all. We have limited time and focus on what we know.
Today there is nothing going on in the Atlantic or Pacific really of note tropically.
- [mac]
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Unregistered User
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Hellow all, this is a test to see if it works
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CocoaBeach Dave
Unregistered
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Looking at the following links:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
It looks like Florida may get some of the Thunderstorm activity happening down in the Carribean.
Still NO real rain at the Beach, the Banana River is down, and anything that the sprinkler misses is dead.
Still the big question out there is what is going to happen in 15 days when there is no El Nino??? 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Dave,
I think those are mostly high clouds on the bottom link, but there is an interesting twist to the formation coming up over Central America. I think the shear would prevent anything from developing, but there definitely appears to be some circulation over C.A.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Get the feeling a low pressure area may develop in the Florida Straits and move slowly towards the Bahamas. Steve H. NWS Melbourne is alluding to this increasing ne winds. AVN/MRF show area of low pesure as well. HMMMMM. FROPA ON TAP FOR SUN. THE AVN HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
AN AFTERNOON FROPA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR
CONVECTION WITH THE FROPA. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE IS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROF WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAY HAVE SOME UPR
DYNAMICS TO PLAY WITH...MAKING THINGS MORE INTERESTING.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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It has finally rained. And it came down in buckets for half hour. This a very good thing since Pinellas county was the driest county east of the Mississippi rive. With a 30 to 40% chance of rain thru the weekend. With better yet to come over the next 3 to 5 weeks as typical afternoon storms start to fire along the seabreezes.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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It has finally rained. And it came down in buckets for half hour. This a very good thing since Pinellas county was the driest county east of the Mississippi river. With a 30 to 40% chance of rain thru the weekend. With better yet to come over the next 3 to 5 weeks as typical afternoon storms start to fire along the seabreezes.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Joe,
You can say that again 
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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A 50% chance of rain tommorrow, a 40-50% chance Saturday and a 50-60% chance on Sunday. Good upper level support could fire up some pretty strong storms, especially tommorrow and Sunday. 
Let's see here...15 tropical storms on the wall, 15 tropical storms on the wall take on pass it around...and well, you know the drill. 
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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poured here at 5:30 Microburst 3 inches in a half an hour !!!!!! Much nneded here in Pinellas Cty. 
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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That is a very interesting blob off the coast of central america this orning. It actually looks to have a little spin to it.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yep, looks like the first 'blob' of the season, a bit early...seems mostly stationary , with a 50/50 as to whether it goes north, or west into the EPAC.
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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check out Bastardi's article today. Looks like this site may start to get very active shortly.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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PLEase post link for Bastardi.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=meteo&type=jbs
for bastardi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I just finished reading it too. I was going to post the link, but I see it's already out there. Thanks MikeC. This is very interesting and proves that >>>I<<< am the ultimate forecaster on this site if something gets cooking. I would only be 2 weeks only! Muhahahahahaha!
Time to go look at the European and MRF. Since it was initially thought that FL would be an early season target - and things are trending further west - I might just be in for an interesting next week!
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Man. I figured this place would be buzzing like a beehive, but I guess the word on a potential pre-season storm hasn't made its rounds yet. I checked out a bunch of models, but didn't really see anything one way or another. One model , had a 1008 low off of the keys in 96 hours then 1004 over Cuba in 120. showed rain off the TX coast in 96. ETA had some convection in the Central Gulf in 48 hours. NGM had a "circle" over Cuba in 48 hours. Obviously the lack of model definition has something to do with a front that isn't even down to LA yet. I suppose they'll come around if the front ends up in the central GOM and sits for a day or two.
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If something does pop up in the GOM next week,does anyone have any idea where it might go?What exactly is the time frame for this?
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Looks like you are finally getting some pretty good rain in Houston.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Showers and thunderstorms are developing over FL. Although steering winds are out of the west and southwest and expected to become stronger. So a strong sea breeze collision will occur over the interior and push back towards the east coast. west coast especially near coast will probably stay dry today unlike yesterday. But some widely scattered showers tonight are possible and especially sat/sun as front/and good dynamics come together with some hopefully widespread rains.
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