Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the lack of immediate development became pretty clear to me when i ran the wv loop. 96L is struggling to find a place. directly to the east is an upper low, and naturally this upper low is bringing a trail of subsidence right across the surface low. that is why the northern half of the system is.. for lack of a better expression.. bald. anyhow i get the feeling that since there is a broad low over warm water and there are places nearby that convection could thrive, i'm thinking it will either do a center relocation or just flounder in its current state until a sustained feature can fight its way through. subsidence on the low is like sand on the fire, it keeps it from doing much.
anyhow, i have a feeling that once the system finally gets a healthy convective look it will start to spin up like a pissed tasmanian devil. of course this could start tonight or three nights from now right on the coast. or inland like 95L, as fate would have it.
as for a timetable on movement, hard to say. how vertically deep the system is at any given time will play big on future movement, and that isnt something i trust any model to figure out. really no telling what the hell the system will do until it becomes a vertically stacked tropical system, otherwise we're trying to forecast the movements of a detached LLC in dead steering currents. the globals answer with this solution.. sort of drift it north or northwest and keep it a sissy rainmaker into the weekend. remember, the globals were right about 95L never developing and going inland. days later, same situation, they still say nothing is going to happen. but if something does happen, it should happen FAST.
so anyhow, much said, hope i made some sense.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2339z10july
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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After watching this thing a little closer I have to say that I don't see it doing much at all. The upper low to the east of it is doing a number on our system. I'm wondering if this year will turn out like last year did when we thought a system would really get going but there seemed to be that one little thing that stood in its way. That would be good news for all of us along the gulf coast as far as not seeing a major one hit us,but it sure makes for some very dull posts like the one I'm doing now. I like it when things are popping and everyone on here is posting left and right. All of you have such great insight and ya'lls views and knowledge always shine through, but especially when things get active. Even though I know that this system will not provide us in Texas with any excitement, I am just happy to see all the wonderful comments that everyone has about what might happen with it. That is what makes this site so great; wonderful people being able to discuss and share with other wonderful people their love for weather, more specifically, TROPICAL SYSTEMS!! THANKS GUYS FOR LETTING ME BE A PART OF IT!!! 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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...much less omnious...
Doesn't do much with this at all..just drifts it as a semi-open low towards NW Florida...interesting...quite the reversal from 12Z!
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I don't think the page will have 96L up very much longer; not much reason to.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Chalk one up for the ULL. The longest WV loop I could find on just a quick surf only had 30 frames (G8). But it occurred to me (and I was wondering) if maybe this is the same ULL that's been slowly crusing across the West Atlantic. If it is, it's been pretty cool watching on the WV's for the last week or so. I'd have to search the satelite archives I guess.
The ULL is moving SW over the Gulf. GOM will probably flare up some tomorrow - another daytime event to watch from work. Somebody's still gonna get a bunch of rain out of this before it's over. There's the disturbed weather in the Gulf and a big trof coming down that's probably going to hang around for a few days. So one way or another, those several inches of rain are gonna come. I swear 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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On average the first named storm develops around July 11th. Someone should see a Hurricane this year. Never went Three years without a Hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US. But, records are made to be broken. I feel a slow start to this years Hurricane season. I have been told the East coast of Florida will be hit this year. This may sound stupid but the sea turtles are nesting on the dunes this year. A co-worker working with sea turtles has been keeping track of this for over 10 years now. I dont think it is true but he seems to think so. We will see if this pans out. What do the rest of you think about the sea turtle theory?
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Thats Interesting i live in Stuart,fl i noticed a few sea turtles were nesting in the dunes back in may i havent been paying that much attention reecently i will have to take a look next time i am at the beach. I have also noticed that all the upper lows that sat over the bahamas the past few seasons seem to be sitting on me this season so i really am interested to see what that means only time will tell.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well just a brief post before i dash out, but the latest IR images show some increase in the convective activity associated with the broad low. The convection is diorganised, but there is definitely more of it noew than an hour or two ago..
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Recent check of Buoy 42003 shows pressure of 29.95 lowest yet and wind speeds of 25 kts/ and gusts of 33kts. We'll see what happens but I would say this thing will need to develop today because on Saturday it is forecast to be kicked out.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Just checked all buoys in area in all are showing their lowest pressure yet with one a .5 drop from 1 to 5 am.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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ok, latest IR imagery shows a clearly defined circulation centre near26.85N 87.90W. This feature is 75% surrounded by convection, with the NW quadrant still convection free. However, spiral bands are now evident in the IR imagery to the SW of the centre. Compare this with the reported pressure drops and i think we might actually see TD One today. First light visible imagery will certainly tell us more!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Matthew
Unregistered
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This is looking good with a nice spin and low leavel cloud bands. I think that the thunderstorms will take hold because of light shear and wow this was not any were near as nice looking as earlyer so the system might do it. I give 60 percent today move it west for 12 to 24 hours then take it to the west north west intill 36 hours than turn it northeast and the 48 to 72 hour time so forecasted at land fall if this keeps at it tropical storm coast rain 2" inches or more the rest ofthe atlantic wave and the eastern atlantic needs watched. Pacific t.d 4 weak and not very good looking. two tropical systems and the western pacific. So next hurricane forecast thursday might wright again if the tropical low and the gulf becomes the first t.d.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962002) ON 20020711 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020711 1200 020712 0000 020712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 87.7W 27.6N 88.5W 28.2N 88.9W
BAMM 27.2N 87.7W 27.5N 88.0W 28.1N 88.0W
A98E 27.2N 87.7W 27.4N 87.5W 28.0N 87.1W
LBAR 27.2N 87.7W 27.4N 88.0W 28.0N 88.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020713 0000 020713 1200 020714 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 88.7W 31.1N 87.1W 35.2N 81.7W
BAMM 29.1N 87.1W 30.4N 85.3W 33.5N 81.1W
A98E 28.9N 86.2W 30.5N 84.8W 34.0N 81.6W
LBAR 28.9N 87.8W 30.1N 87.0W 33.5N 84.4W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 57KTS
DSHP 38KTS 48KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 87.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 185NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at this and there is not the low we have been watch it look like this is taking that low and eatting it less shear and more thunderstorms. The low leavel center is strong and looks very powerful if this can build more thunderstorms and this will be a t.d. 80 percent tropical storm thursday and friday. please tell me what you think of this low.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I just checked the early morning visible sat. loop...only a few frames, but I thought I noticed a couple things: First, it looked to me like there was a very small non-convective spin located to the north of the main area of convection (due south of Pensacola, abreast of the Tampa area). This spin looks like a seperate feature...is it the UL that moved across Florida??
To my fairly un-trained eye, it also appears that the thunderstorm activity present in the S & SW quadrant banding is undergoing some shear, blowing off to the S. Am I alone in this observation?
Louis Jones
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kind of looks like t.d 4 of 2000. That low was a low with rain bands so whats keeping the nation hurricane center.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well here's my analysis on the gulf low. After looking over ruc streamline analysis shows the LLC is located near 27 N / 88.5 W. This appears to be the main area of spin currently seen on visible satellite loop. The upper low is near 26.5 N / 83.5 W. Upper low is closer to Fort Myers say 150 miles west. Also of note on 250 mb analysis showed a upper level high pressure located over southeast states. Now if this were to move south the next couple of days and upper low gets kicked south of surface low I think there would be a good chance of development. This situation would also reduce wind spear which is currently located on northside of the system. Current shear is due in fact to upper low to the east and upper level high to north thus increasing winds in between the two allowing for not the greatest environment for further development. I do expect things to get better the next couple of days as upper high builds south in response to trough in east. So I still believe we may still get are first TD of season.
Joe
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MarkR
Unregistered
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I agree with upper low postion and with the dry air to the north of the LLC development as well as movement should be slow if any over the next 24 hours. After that we may see more development as it drifts northward maybe even nne in time. Rain should increase over the southeast from Florida thru Louisiana thru the weekend whatever this system does or does not do.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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My earlier post indicated a clear circulation near the convection during the early morning hours. This circulation is now less evident on the latest IR loops... however there appears to be some rotation associated with the convection to the south of the evident LLCC. Possibly this may be associated with a mid-level circulation, or perhaps the whole broad low has several embedded circulations. For evidence of this turning in the convection GO HERE, set the animation instructions and then click near where the current LLCC is.
As conditions improve i still think this feature will eventually lead to our first TD of the season. Although conditions have been unfavourable the LLCC is quite tight and well defined so there is still a chance!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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sometimes I feal that they wait until there is no absolute doubt until they make a statement, but with so many people depending on them,"nhc" I dont blame them at all. To me it looks like it is getting better developed. I talked to my frind in Tampa and she said they are getting hammered with rain.
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