Matthew
Unregistered
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The waves are weak the high and the northwest atlantic will soon. So what is called the wpo that cames won'd the western pacific has alot of storms than the eastern pacific than the gulf of mexico than the western atlantic than the eastern plus won'd there alot of storms and the western pacific that cut off the waves and the atlantic so I think. The western pacific has had alot of storms this is because the thunderstorm that are around the earth won'd the thunderstorms are and the western pacific there alot of storm now it is moving into the eastern pacific with are tropical storm and a few other thunderstorms areas now this has moved to about 70 or so to 80 west next few day the western pacific should slow down allowing waves to start up. now back to the thunderstorms in the area area 5 north this are will more likly spread in to the eastern atlantic and one week or so and than tropical waves came together didn't think anything will form but the south west cab will more likly have a try at it give up on the gul. So i think with high pressure building sings came together 60 west to 65 west and 15 north to 20 north around the 3 week of July 21 to the 27 main date 24 of july 30 percent chance. Matthew
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Maybe a no spin , but looking at the IF at 3:00 A.M. sure is a lot of nocturnal convection there , I like it, Looks as if it is going to be a nasty day on the "BEST" coast of Florida today, off to the airport !!!!!.............. LATER
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
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uh...qasaaa  ``uh..huh alrighty then...my crystal balls says a named storm is comin up here real soon uh..huh on july 16th down thare in the careofbein somewares uh...huh thank ye Steven Paul Barnell
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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reading thru hurricane stuff reports that a 1008 low as formed 150 miles from the coast and has winds if 25 mph this system is not moving but a slow northeast and 12 hours should be over land so 20 percent chance than over land may became a t.d just before it makes land fall the only thing is thunderstorms are not perfect around the center so the chance the nation hurricane center will even take another look are small at best what do you think
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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We just got hit hard here in St.Pete with heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Already got 1.05 in rain gauge with more to come!
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Matthew
Unregistered
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That earlyer one about the tropical low and the poll the low look weak and very close to land but there is a chance for it to get back over the atlantic and form so 20 percent and for the low and the middle atlantic has alot of thunderstorms checking shear there alot of shear to the north west the thing is th shear leavel to the east has lowerd and there alot of thunderstorms so 20 percent and if any thing did form it won'd form in the next three days. Are tropical storm looks better and the eastern pacific. Mathew
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Matthew
Unregistered
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That earlyer one about the tropical low and the poll the low look weak and very close to land but there is a chance for it to get back over the atlantic and form so 20 percent and for the low and the middle atlantic has alot of thunderstorms checking shear there alot of shear to the north west the thing is th shear leavel to the east has lowerd and there alot of thunderstorms so 20 percent and if any thing did form it won'd form in the next three days. Are tropical storm looks better and the eastern pacific. Mathew
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Anonymous
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fore got poll stop
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Anonymous (HF)
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for some reason this makes perfect sense: the surface low that persisted for four days finally opens.. and deep convection forms right where it would have been. 96L has been a barrel of laughs. it almost looks deliberate, doesnt it?
anyhow if a low closes back up then maybe we'd get a baroclinic system that would zip by the outer banks and past bermuda. i doubt that very much, though.
the wave down near the antilles is just eye candy. south flank of the runs across the caribbean and out into the atlantic.. 30 to 40kt shear. nothing is going to happen down there. the usually doesnt go away until late summer.
anyhow it becomes less and less likely that we wont get a storm as time goes by. in almost all seasons a storm has formed by august 15th. 1984 and 1977 are the known limit of lateness, august 28th and 29th, respectively.
HF aikenSC 1636z13july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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And in 1984 there were 13 named storms (BTW, there was a post analysis storm in the end of July (I think) but the first named storm was 8/28>
The message being---just because it starts late, doesn't mean it won't be active. I'm pretty sure that at one time in '84, there were 4 or perhaps 5 cyclones going at the same time.
IHS,
Bill
ps-the low passed right over us here, we had an eye like structure for about 1/2 hr...towering CB and lightnening all around and shifting winds..lots of sun..its been a squally, neat tropical day! About 2" of rain so far, highest gust about 25 mph.
Interestingly teh nearby highschool weather bug shows current winds SSE, but highest gust in last hr (22kts) from NW.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Anyone else notice the little spin just W of 60w in the Atlantic?? looks to be in a slight bit of shear but if it moves just a bit to the wnw it should leave some of that area ...
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Anonymous (HF)
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yeah thats right.. there was a subtrop before that year's arthur that formed on august 18th.
the cyclonic structure to the system (still 96L i guess) moving over florida is weak but unmistakable. have to see if the old baroclinic kick gets us a fish spinner going offshore later on.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2225z13july
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Anyone else notice the little spin just W of 60w in the Atlantic?? looks to be in a slight bit of shear but if it moves just a bit to the wnw it should leave some of that area ...
Yeah troy2. I noted it in my new and hopefully improved first hurricane forecast. There is also a surge of moisture just moving off of Nicaragua/Honduras that could bring some rain into the eastern Gulf/FL early next week if that blob holds together.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Just looking at the nation hurricane center and they said there is a chance that a t.d may form soon.
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Anonymous
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I see that Mathew is still here with his incoherant unreadable posts & a poll for everything 
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Anonymous (HF)
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there is still a 1010-1011 mb low around onslow by/cape lookout in north carolina moving up the coast, the same system that has been refusing to develop or go away since back on tuesday. soon it will be moving out into the north atlantic and leaving the tropics, so it no longer poses any kind of threat.. and it could still develop briefly and break some hearts (see that most of you have given up on july producing a storm). organizationally it hasnt come any closer than it was yesterday.
nothing else happening anywhere in the tropics is of consequence. a good wave in the caribbean is being mauled by shear, with only the remote possibility of the north end peeking out into lesser shear. nothing of note in the gulf.
yes matthew is still here, but its only a matter of time before his diahrrea of the brain style posts get the site owners annoyed and he goes to the void inhabited by judy garland/paloma and maybe some forgotten pottymouths. after all, its only people who TRY to be stupid or offensive who get booted.. and matthew has had ample chance to get real. something has to be wrong upstairs with the guy, he doesnt seem to get it when nobody responds to his posts except to express dislike for his unreadable garbled messes.
HF aikenSC 1833z14july
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Alex K
Unregistered
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000
WONT41 KNHC 141832
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002
SURFACE...RADAR...AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM OR
GALE FORCE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
AND REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUCH...ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MAINLY BE A
HAZARD TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER AND THE STRONGER WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EVENT TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORIES AND ANY WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED LATER THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Me: I say TD. or TS by 4, but it won't hit or brush NC. Watch out for high surf along carolina coast.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The disturbance (low) is looking better organized and might get upgraded, but SHould remain offshore. Here's another interesting tidbit from the TPC..
MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
A PATTERN MORE FAVORED TO OCCUR IN EL NINO YEARS IS HAPPENING IN
THE AREA WITH AN ENHANCED UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES OVER
THE W ATLC AND IN THE FAR E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS LEADING
TO UNFAVORABLE SHEARING WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM IN THIS
SLOWLY-EVOLVING PATTERN.
Probably stated to feed the presumption of their El Nino declaration. The pattern will change in August. BTW, we know weak El Nino years can support active seasons, which I still believe this is going to be. Once the first system pops others will follow as the cycles begin. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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If you can see there was a big fat area of thuunderstorms and my post was every stupid 6 hours or so sorry I sliped up. I not perfect at all in you people will not back of from a few dum 6 hour post I hope you get hit by the biggest fattest hurricane and the whole world heck the person is saying these thing to me I'm sick of there meanest in hate I try to talk abou the tropic but I'm very sick of bitting my hand I been stoping my self for you I been trying to make a update and you will not stop in my words I help the person make my feel bad see a hurricane this year in if you are a so called hurricane chaser like I think is cool I would love to do that your not going to be so fast to chase this it go to be cat 5 bigger in mitch that just how mad I'm so I help you all live with your self hatting meannest in you might think night time. So just to think you people do not know me and you want to judge me I'm not going to sit here in play cat with not to smart people. I'm going to try some more in if the owner wants to kick me off at lease I tryed in that all that counts in the world. Thats the last time I get bad mouth to in held of the f word in respect of this site. Matthew the weather and hurricane watcher from hell!!!!!  he he he
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Nice to Leave home on a Sunday morning to work a few hours and come home to see that we Have a TD.
Maybe in a few hours a TS. At least we can get the A name behind us.
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