CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Tropical Storm Arthur is now gone away in the North Atlantic. It was the first of the season, and got to be a pretty strong 60MPH tropical storm before getting pulled up and away.
That leaves us with nothing much going on at the moment, but I'm up for bets on where the next one will show up. Things will gradually ramp up until about the middle of August. Bertha is next. Last time we had a Bertha, it caused a bit of stir here in Central Florida before turning away. Could it be off the Atlantic coast? In the Caribbean, or Gulf, or elsewhere?
Here's a satellite Image of 1996's Hurricane Bertha as it neared Central Florida.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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With the heat wave along the gulf coast the GOM will heat up fast. Once the high pressure moves off the gulf will be warm enough to favor development. I don't think we will see one form in the Atlantic untill August. Sooo the gulf would be my choice untill then.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Ya arthur sure sucked maybe next arthur will be a hurricane.
All say late July for storm 2 and early to middle of august for storm 3. Looks like one of those seasons that could have a bad hurricane or some thing. All be watching hehehe heheh he he he !!!  
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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pattern in the atlantic is transitioning to its mature late summer config over the next week or two. if i had to bet on where a system would form in the meanwhile, it would be off the east coast. maybe from a trough split, sheltered in the ridging on the back side of the , downstream from the ridge build here over the southeast. cant count on the gulf, disturbed weather there has been mostly on the western gulf coast or inland. anything west carib would just jet right in to central america, deep layer flow too strong from the summer ridges north, not to mention the upper SW jet that keeps hanging on.
nope, next three weeks anything we get will be off the east coast, until the cape verde to caribbean corridor opens up.
anyhow, how about the heat? going to peak near 100 here today, probably through friday or saturday. no real break in the heat or significant rainfall chance is in the foreseeable future 'round here.. moderate hydrologic drought ongoing, so this isnt going to help anybody.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1801z17july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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In pretty much agreement HF, the pattern is getting into an August mode wherein we could start seeing some development within the next two weeks. However, I still think the Caribbean could produce something, but probably something just to the north of Puerto Rico. So you could say it's the SW Atlantic, even though it's roots may be from the Caribbean. Things are getting primed. I still believe we will see an above normal season (relative to averages) but not exceedingly so. The one's that develop will be more threatening though considering the pattern that's taking shape. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A guy claiming to be a spokesperson for them has been posting on Hurricane Hollow/Hurricane City's joint message board. Let him know what you think if you had a chance to listen to the real audio broadcast of the Barometer Bob show from last week. By the way, hurricanehollow.com and hurricanecity.com link to our chatroom here at so these aren't rival boards or anything.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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nothing that interesting showing on models through 5 days. avn tracks a suspicious and questionable low near the cape verdes offshore in about 2-3 days, expect nothing. avn ukmet and all have a baroclinic type coastal low emerging out of energy moving off the mid atlantic coast in about three days time, jet it northeast a-la arthur. will keep eyes peeled, but the usual july quiet is all that is expected into next week.
HF aikenSC 2224z17july
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jim w
Unregistered
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Sorry I think it will be Aug 10th before we see Bertha.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looked at east atlantic sat. photo, storms are starting to pop over africa, headed to atlantic.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I was just looking at this and the thunderstorms are just blooming with this low leavel center why is the not upgading this.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Thought first storm would be Aug 10th, so I'll roll that over to second storm of season.
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Joe's column will no longer have free access after September per his note at
web page
 This is sad, I really look forward to reading Joe during the season.
Larry
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Thats bad news for us weather and hurricane watchers any thing to make a buck. In are typoon is a d-7 that is almost as powerfal as mitch. NEW t.d in the western pacific. We got the eastern pacific but the will not make it any thing. atlantic boring may be eastern atlantic.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hopefully he'll still do the videos, but how many people do you think go to Accuweather.com for the sole purpose of reading Bastardi? I'm sure it's around 50% or more. They'll be taking a hit.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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awww crap. i like bastardi and all, but not paying for it. but hey, Accuweather guys have to get paid too. cant expect a deal.. excellent weather analysis for free.. like that to last forever.
basin is quiet. aside from the frontal tail off the east coast nothing looks remotely interesting. coastal low on the models not as solid as yesterday, east atlantic low only shows on avn. one thing i have noticed is the ridge shift. globals pivot it from a NE-SW axis in the north atlantic to a more E-W one. average pressures in the deep tropics will slowly fall in the deep tropics over the next week, all part of the late summer reconfig. waves this year havent been as robust as in the past few.. all that westpac activity may rob the overall wave energy downstream. but then, i wasnt expecting a huge cape verde season anyway.
HF aikenSC 1713z18july
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Boy has it ever borning around hear ! ! ! As for the tropical weather the tropical low and the pacific that I think should of been upgraded to a t.d was another sleep off because durning the day it was clear tight low leavel center and thunderstorms what else is needed for a t.d wow I'm starting to think that it takes a hurricane with a eye wall to be a t.d with the last night it had a d-2.5 that tropical storm. Now there a big typoon 160 mph winds I think it will become as strong as mitch. t.d 13 is alot of rain. that the forecast atlantic a few area to watch upper lows not much 
fast poll
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not too much action on your poll Matt. Come clean with me. How old are you? It doesn't matter, but there are some things I'm trying to figure out about some of the posts that might be clearer with that information. Also, would you confirm or deny that you are or aren't John/Paloma?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The analysis from 600 UTC shows a 1011 mb low in the extreme southwest Caribbean. It looks fairly well organized and there is a decent amount of thunderstorm activity associated with the system. It is moving west into the Eastern Pacific, and I'm betting it will be a depression over there within a few days. If it were moving more northerly we would of had Bertha...but I guess we'll have to wait on that.
Kevin 
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Steve777
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 5
Loc: St. Cloud FL
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I've been observing more than commenting but i finally would like to say i have somewhat had your opinion Steve that this Matt is not who he says he is and i have had a few laughs just reading his posts and think the more attention of madness and irritation reactions only fuels him so i'm amused lol be kewl and here's waiting for BIG Bertha!! Steven Paul Barnell
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Anonymous-Doug
Unregistered
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I just looked at Joe B's video and there is something eerily similar in Matt's take on things and what Joe has historically done...I mean taking issue with the , and aggressive "forecasting"...come on Matt are you really Joe in-cognito? LOL!
by the way Joe does ref. a surface trough in the eastern gulf and current radar (1:45 p.m.) shows how that is effecting rain movement over the westcoast of the eastcoast of the U.S...he notes the upper High we have been afflicted with the last few days over this trough and said does suggest persistence and NW movement ( it is the only model which does). EDS.
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