Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Good post Jason. I enjoyed it as I do all your reports and updates.
Joe, I'm kind of with you on the NE Gulf. I want to see a little more than potential to get real excited. But I think there's going to be a few inches of rain for many of us in the Friday-Monday period. Things are suddenly at least interesting again. Many of the local stations here are now keying on storminess and the Gulf this weekend. I haven't read any NWS statements or 3-5 day forecasts, but if I get a chance to dig around tonight I will.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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jim w
Unregistered
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you are right no development this week
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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hey jason that post was massive. keep it up, cause i hate it when my posts take up lots of proportional space (its like im talking to nobody sometimes). well anyway youre a real met, so things you can see (like the 15C line moving north) that us laypeople don't know to look for.. they make your posts very worthwhile.. besides i'm trying to learn more about what to look for and what it means. with bastardi becoming a pay service i'm going to need some place else to get my lessons, eh? i'm sure there are a number of others at the site who feel the same way.. so drop us a line, hook us up as much as youre willing to.
on to the observations.. well, what jason said.. cant improve that.. though the usual reservations about a gulf system actually getting going (**cough cough barry cough gabrielle cough arthur**) are in the back of my mind. also wondering if a system will materialize in the wake of that cool (not quite COLD) core system out past bermuda. the wake... a sort of trough, is shown by various global models as moving S, SW, filling in. i dunno, no model sees anything in it.. but i guess it's the only show other than whatever might happen in the gulf from friday on.
anyhow, take it easy all.
HF 0514z01august
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Jason M
Unregistered
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I am just an ameteur weather forecaster...its one of the reasons why I have disclaimers at the bottom of every forecast page at my site.
Tropical Weather Watchers
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yeah that's Jason Moreland, not Jason Kelly. I love the details anyway.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A little interesting side note. Most of the buoys south of West FL, AL, MS and SE LA are 6-10 hundreths lower than they were yesterday at this time. (e.g. 30.01 vs. 30.09 or 29.99 vs. 30.06). That will be an interesting trend to watch for tomorrow to see if they lower again.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Caneman
Unregistered
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Hey Steve, looks like on WV imagery the ULL is east of JAX. IS this the area an LLC would form or is more along the trough in Eastern GOM (I assume the trough is the thin subsidence looking line in GOMEX. Also, others on another board I frequent have also noted pressure drops.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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For those people who are saying we are having a slow season. It's NOT a slow season yet!!!! The Atlantic basin has its first storm on average July 11th and its 2nd storm on average August 8th. The first hurricane on average is August 14th and first major hurricane on average September 4th. So, we still have another 7 days before we should even see a 2nd storm and 13 days before we see any hurricane. Also for us South Floridian's, let's go back 10 years to 1992 and the first storm was not until the middle to end of August. It was also a slow year in 1992. But, those of us in South Florida will never remember that as a slow year. It only takes 1 over your area and it will not be considered a slow year to you. Let's just give 2002 a little more time to get rolling. It is going to happen very soon.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I probably need to hire him!
Good analysis, even though I disagree with a number of his points...where there are two or more forecasters gathered, you'll find two (or more!) forecasts!
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Jason Kelley
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caneman
Unregistered
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Jason, do you see anything taking shape in NE GOMEX?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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well i got my jasons mixed up. moreland sounded kind of authoritative.. but his post was way longer than anything kelley ever puts up. my statement stands though.. like to hear lots of detailed ideas. synoptic pattern not just described but explained. today the board is buzzing.. always good to see.
i'm sure all that tstorm activity in the upper gulf and off the georgia coast precludes whatever low is going to develop. noticed on SFC obs that pressures are lower off the georgia coast already, maybe some weak turning out there. the models have it crossing north florida and moving west to wnw over the next three to five days.. no significant development on any, though.
joe b. brought up the trough left out near bermuda that various globals are tracking west under the merging ridges. so even if the gulf thing isnt a go, maybe something else out there by next week.
deep tropics.. joe b. also describes how the faster easterlies in the pacific shut things off, and now it has to propagate around the globe to maybe get us a storm or chain of them to come off africa. thats like watching motor oil drain.. pretty drawn out. noted that things shut down in the westpac around july 27.. say the easterly surge makes 8 degrees longitude a day.. about 100 degrees to go.. 'bout two weeks. right around august 10th. unless something is leading ahead.
or maybe my logic is flawed, i dunno.
HF 1921z01august
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41009
This link is to a Data Bouy 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral.
Currently pressure is 29.89 and falling.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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That's .11" lower than 24 hours ago. I checked a bunch of buoys on the east coast before I left work. Most of them were running .10 - .12" lower than yesterday. It's not BIG, but it's definitely a hint of lower pressure descending on the area.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Joe B. and some others thought that the little low off of North Florida was going to cut accross Florida and end up in the GOM.
Looking at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can clearly see the center of rotation moving off to the East. Any chance of this one getting going?
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Jason M
Unregistered
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/01/02/ 9:15 PM EDT
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Gulf of Mexico Development???
Here are the latest forecast tracks from the models.
The , and MRF models are ain close agreement for a more northerly track. These models take the developing low into the Gulf of Mexico and then inland between southeast Louisiana and Pensacola, Florida. They show a stronger ridge to the north than yesterday. They also move the ridge faster than the other models. Therefore, they're forecasting a more northerly track.
Both the UKMET and take the low between Corpus Christi and Houston. the models show slow development as the low moves west. The UKMET shows a moderate increase in strength just before landfall.
The model doesn't show much in the way of tropical development. This can be expected since the model is usually the most conservative compared to the other models. takes the low closer to land and it doesn't give the low alot of room to develop. The model is forecasting a big rain event across the state of Lousiana with the center of circulation moving inland over central Louisiana.
The AVN is the only model that takes the low back into the Florida panhandle. The model shows the low moving northeast, along a weakness in the atmosphere, east of the ridge to the north. The model doesn't give the low much time to develop either.
All of the models except for , take the low farther south than yesterday's model runs. This is because they are forecasting the ridge to the north to move farther south. The models are also split as to whether or noth the low will continue moving west towards Texas and a more northerly track between southeast Louisiana and extreme western Florida. This depends on the strength and speed of the high to the north.
I do believe that the chances of tropical development are rising. In fact, I think this one has a pretty good shot at becoming a tropical storm. An anticyclone is expected to build over the Gulf of Mexico, causing the vertical wind shear to begin to diminish. With 90 degree water temperatures, no wind shear and increasing moisture, I don't see why this low would have a hard time developing into at least a minimal tropical storm. Now land will be an inhibiting factor. However, as I said the models are taking the low farther south than yesterday's runs.
A low should emerge off the Florida coast in 24-36 hours. The low should then begin to drift west and should be SSE of New Orleans in roughly 48 hours. Assuming that the low continues a westerly movement, the center should be south of central Louisiana in 72 hours. What happens after that is highly uncertain. I really don't see this being much of a problem for Florida. But anyone living from Brownsville to Mobile should continue to closely monitor this developing low. I am not saying that Florida should forget about the low. But I do feel that FLA will be in the clear this time.
Is development certain? Of course not. But I do think that this one has a good shot at becoming our next named storm.
The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet...for now. The models are hinting on some possible development near the Bahamas but I am not concerned yet. I will go into more detail on this area tomorrow IF the potential still exists.
The rest of the Atlantic is quiet. The Bermuda is much farther south than average. This is in response to the subtropical low over the central Atlantic. Until the low moves NEWD and out of the picture, the central Atlantic will continue to be covered in sinking air (subsidence).
There are three decent waves over the continent of Africa this evening. This may be the beginning of the African wave train. It will be interesting to see what happpens to these waves once the emerge off the coast. Usually the last one to move off has the greatest potential for development. This is because the waves out ahead of the last one, casuses an increase in the moisture levels across the eastern Atlantic. All three waves have potential but the last one has the better chance. I will be closely monitoring these waves over the next few days as conditions are forecasted to become increasingly favorable for development. Its just a matter of time!
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
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Jason M
Unregistered
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Thanks all! I didn't notice the second page of hits until I posted my updated discussion
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It looks like there is some sort of banding going on right over you. I know there isn't but if you just look at a still pic you would almost think there was. I'm not ready to jump on the band wagon yet on this. It seems like every time that one of these is suppose to crank up and move here to Texas it either never happens or if it does it seems to always go a different direction that what was forecasted. When we get one here it is always one from out of the blue...aka Allison from last year. Alicia back in 1983 was the same way; spun up out of nowhere.I know the pattern is there for this to happen over the weekend but I'm about 70% in favor of it not.
Later,
ShawnS
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well, I don't know...I don't trust the AVN any further than I can throw it this time of year...not until something gets going.
In my opinion, the jury is out...we'll see in the next 24 hrs or so....
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the disturbed weather is further east than expected. sort of weird that right now pressures off the east coast get lower as you go out.. related to that upper trough that seems to be splitting out over the central atlantic. so, the lowest pressures with this possible system are to the east, and the convection is lined on an axis from 400mi east of georgia to north florida to off the louisiana coast. different avn runs yesterday and tonight have the low forming in different places, or not forming at all.. just a trough and convection. what all this tells me is that most of the models assumed incorrect things about where the system would try to focus. could fire up in the northern gulf, could be off the southeast coast. the upper system is east of jacksonville.. so im starting to lean more in that direction. as a whole though, pretty high uncertainty with this thing still.
latest avn run is more interesting when it comes to the future of that broad low out in the central atlantic. most of the models are showing at least some kind of trough disturbance moving east from near bermuda next week. just another possible thing to watch down the road.
HF 0528z02august
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was gone for a time so now I'm back so it's time to get back to work on the tropical weather.
Now the model called the takes this gulf system into texas as a nice looking storm.
Avn weak low and still waiting for the 00Z model ran.
plus the afica coast should have a tropical system caming off that what the avn said.
The pacific is now boring so atlantic should fire up.
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