wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Boy, hard to vote against development when the models are lined up like this!
The Eta, , and (PSU flavor) have a very similar solution for the evolution of whatever might develop over the next couple of days. (Which, BTW, isn't really development of the Upper Low NE of Jax, but a surface spin-up from the convection currently offshore in the Gulf) All create a closed surface low in the CentGOM, then track it NW with eventually landfalls from between Biloxi to Houston (although a couple of solutions keep it offshore for a while with no definative landfall). The AVN has a more northerly solution, with the low hugging the coast...this would be a rainmaker for S GA, S AL and NW FL, but not a real tropical system.
What really concerns me is the rapid development forecast by the models. It doesn't "look" right. (I know that is real nebulous, but it's a gut feeling of mine). I think the models are over-doing the development a good bit...at least I hope so!
So there are two real "issues" here...1) the models agreeing to this degree lends significant weight to the possibility of something forming. 2) the model solutions look unusual (to my eye) at best. So where do I fall in? Well, I think we should watch closely...last night I was convinced that nothing would crank up in the Gulf...but I was basing that on the upper low drifting back into the GOM. Now I am starting to lean towards SOME development in the GOM (look at the convection over the CentGOM already), but the evolution to not be as rapid as the models forecast.
<an aside...just did the noon show..mentioned the possibily of GOM development on the air, so you can be pretty sure nothing will happen now!>
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Jason Kelley
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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It was me.
Thanks for the comment
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41008
Is a link to a Data Bouy 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA
The water is certainly warm enough.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
And our distrubance off of Jax. looks like it has taken a Northerly gesture.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Think about the hurricane about one week ago in the pacific. That was almost a cat 5 hurricane now think of this all the model lined up this 3 to 4 days before it fired a thunderstorm now with the gulf system looks to be getting thunderstorms. The only model that this hurricane had more in this low is the avn in was saying. It was going to. now do you want to sleep after these models formed a cat 5 hurricane almost this needs watching.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I still have my doubts about the system in the gulf but I just can't believe that the isn't making a bigger deal about what is happening out there right now; especially since this is where the models are trying to develop something. Maybe they know something we don't but I don't know how you can ignore the "blob" that is out there now when everything seems to be ripe for a storm to get cranking. We shall see.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Huh? What? on the last two matthew posts.
42039 - Pensacola - Pressure at 29.94 vs. 29.98 yesterday at 12 noon. NE winds at 9.7 knots.
42040 - 64 nm South of Dauphin Island - 29.94 vs. 29.98 yesterday. Winds NNE @ 9.7 knots.
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA - 29.97 vs. 30.03 yesterday. Winds N @ 12 knots.
42041 - North Mid Gulf - 29.98 vs. 30.02 yesterday. Winds WSW @ 3.9 knots.
42001 - Mid-Gulf 180 nm South of SW Pass, LA - 30.01 vs. 30.04 yesterday. Winds North @ 19.4 knots.
So this is in line with my predictions yesterday of an approximately .05" drop in pressures if the trend continued as I envisioned it. I said they'd drop .1" in most places yesterday which they did, and that they'd drop .05" today, which is pretty close (most .04"). However, pressures are rising or steady at almost all of these stations. That is to be expected at noon time in the summer. Let's see what they do tomorrow. If they drop another .05-.1", obviously something is going to cook. But also, since there are no rapid pressure falls or anything, there's not going to be an immediate spin-up today.
Bill and ShawnS,
I also can't figure out why there is no mention of the Gulf outside of a minor note in the Discussion. TPC went WHACK last year. It appears they're still there again. No doubt we'll have storms 'completely missing depression stage' again this year.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Already this year two t.ds never made it and should of been they 100 percent starting to suck. Plus they under the winds of every thing they are falling apart you need a hurricane to get there heads out of there holes they need to keep the u.s safe in they are doing a half dog job doing that. so they better fix there ways before sites like this start making the forecast for them heck we can make better forecast there is over 130 of us on here there only a hand count of them they are sleeping in there beds they get paid 100,000 dollers a year so this better get to work before I start wright more. 
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
we can make better forecast there is over 130 of us on here there only a hand count of them they are sleeping in there beds they get paid 100,000 dollers a year so this better get to work before I start wright more.
Golly Mr Anonymous, Last I looked the was made up of a few, often pressured, *people* called meterologists that have an awsome responsibility to the public. One of those responsibilities include NOT crying WOLF so often as to induce people to ignore *real* wolves.
It is up to us many weather enthusiasts to show the world our hind ends, make WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses) and call every frog we see a wolf. *That* is *our* job, doing the best they can is the 's job.
On the whole, the does a good job and provides much fodder for us hobbiests to use in forming our *opinions*, opinions that don't cause panic when published, opinions that don't cause undue evacuations, opinions that are wrong much more often than they are right.
Our collective "wisdom" may from time to time, produce a better forcast than the official sources might, but in the long run, our wisdom often leads us to draw incorrect conculusions. The main difference, our conclusions don't usually cause panic, great expense or loss of life.
IHMO
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Alex k
Unregistered
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I have been looking at the visible loops of the low off the southeast coas, and it appears that there may be 2 circulations-One under the decent convection and one to the SW of it. Is one the ULL and the other a LLC?
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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There appears to a weak surface low developing near Tampa. Take a look a look at this loop...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
There appears to a weak surface low developing near Tampa. Take a look a look at this loop...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml
There is an abundance of moisture in the NE Gulf, to be sure, especially S of New Orleans, but I am not seeing rotation, just 'blooming'. There is a lot of dry air just to the west and I think that *if* any rotation would try to start there, this dry air would infiltrate and weaken or kill it before it gets started.
That said, this dry air is slipping past rapidly and appears to be losing its' identity somewhat. So, as a previous poster noted, the NE Gulf is ripe for development, the SST's are providing plenty of energy, the moisture is still in place and the Gulf is a favorite starting point this time of the year. Most certainly worth watching.
The NW movement I noted in the low off NE Fla does seem like more of a wobble than a direction so as it is moving slowly, the pressures at SL dropping somewhat and circulation evident, this area deserves our divided attention...divided between it and the Gulf 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huloopvs.html seems to be showing an attempt to get a circulation and rotation going on the system in the GOM. It is very wide and broad over the trough, though. If the convection holds, I think a more closed circulation would be reasonable in 24-48 hours. It seems to be trying to spin up away from the dry air.
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Jim
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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well i kind of do want to put the horse ahead of the cart and say 'development for sure', but a couple of things are nagging. one is that the two things we are paying closest attention to.. the convection in the gulf and the swirl off georgia.. are actually one issue. the east of georgia low is looking less impressive.. the upper system has sheared out overhead and stopped supporting convection as well.. so it mostly has to rely on low level convergence until (and if) upper support comes back. and i might mention that the mesoscale picture out there is pretty confused. good doubt there. at the other end of the upper system that has split apart is the gulf convection.. marching south against the deep layer flow and kicking up tons of convection. though there are two focal points with this entire interest area.. neither is taking a dominant stance.. and how often has it been that a starving little surface low was 'subsidized' by dry air and/or robbed of inflow by some convection going off somewhere else. basically what happens now is either one or more surface lows can start vying for status on the disturbed axis or nothing in this big disturbance will get going. i dont see bob the friendly upper high around to shelter any of the whole system.. so theres just a lot of uncertainty.
as per my earlier mention of fujiwhara.. maybe thats going a little too far. really when you think about it the chances that both 'epicenters' on the disturbance can get going is kind of goofy (though possible), but their proximity would mean they'd interact. inflow competition or maybe an outflow shear brawl. so maybe not true 'circle your opponent' fujiwhara, but surely interaction.
by the way, wheres the run on 98L i want to see the cat 3 hitting georgia so i can laugh at the open wave on the next run.
do have the suspicion that something will come out of all this, but it aint gonna happen easy.
next week: watch near bermuda.
HF 2007z02august
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
do have the suspicion that something will come out of all this, but it aint gonna happen easy.
next week
HF, I couldn't agree more. Sometimes we become myopic and look at the little picture a little too closely. It does appear there is a weak, elongated low from S of New Orleans, across central Florida and up to the Fla/Ga Atlantic area. I also tend to agree with your analysis that something *will* come of this, but I hasten to add that I am not yet looking for my hurricane lanterns
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Agree, I do have a feeling that somehing may come out of gulf disturbance, but I still have my questions.
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Have been looking at the models and the 's and the MRF both show a low area of pressure developing in the mid gulf in 36-48 hours .After looking at the water vapor loop it looks as if this may be the case. Bouy #42001 out in the mid gulf is showing pressure of 29.97 with winds out of the NNW of 11.7kts with gusts to 15.5 kts.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42001
On another note we had a heck of a storm blow through here in Hollywood, FL , trees and power lines down.
Jeanine AKA Peanuts/ Hollywood, FL 
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/02/02/ 7:15 PM EDT
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
I am sorry for the delay. There was a severe thunderstorm near the area and I had to shutdown the computer for a while do to frequent lightning.
Two Areas of Interest...
Model Analysis For the GOM Low
The model takes the center of circulation just south of the southeast Louisiana coast. The model shows a WNW movement until it is south of central LA. Then, a more NNW track begins with a landfall in the general vicinity of Lake Charles.
the shows the low developing rather nicely just south of southeast Louisiana before landfall. A slow drift to the north and a landfall between Houma and Grand Isle in about 84H is forecasted by this model.
The probably takes the low farthest south out of all of the models. then shows a NW movememnt towards Grand Isle, Louisiana.
The UKMET also takes the low into southeast Louisiana in roughly 72 hours.
The AVN model still shows the low moving north into the Florida panhandle. Let me just remind you that this is the only model that takes the low this far east.
Model Analysis For the East Coast Low
The shows a very slow ENE track over the next few days with some signs of a more notherly track towards the end of the model run (120H).
The is having a hard time recognizing the low pressure system. I can't even find it on this model.
The is having the same problems as the .
The UKMET does pick up the low and takes it southwest towards southern Florida in 120H.
The AVN model is hinting on development form this low more than any other model. the AVN takes the low on an ENE track through 108H. The low then begins to move north and NE as a trough to the north is expected to move south.
Gulf of Mexico Circulation Beginning to Develop
There are some indications that a circulation may be trying to develop in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. One of the buoys on the southern side of the system are indicating weak westerly winds. In addition the latest quickscat (QC) is also indicating some signs of a weak circulation.
New model data still forms low in Northern-Central Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian and are most aggressive with development by forecasting a hurricane forming late Sunday and Monday and heading for the central and southeast Louisiana coastline. The AVN, , UKMET form a broad weak low and track it towards the Louisiana/Texas state line. There are no runs yet.
Latest visible sat picture shows than an upper level high is developing over atrough trough in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With sea surface temperatures near 85-90, an upper level ridge developing over the system and no shear, we should see at least a tropical storm. Conditions are favorable for development.
with all that said, it looks like we will see tropical development over the weekend. The intensity is still uncertain, but the potential for a minimal hurricane does exist. The coast of Louisiana won't see any effect until Late Sunday night or Monday. If it goes west, SE Louisiana would still be on the wet side, bringing heavy rain to the area.
Right now its rainmaker more than anything else...unless we see it bomb like Opal, but we'll cross that bridge when we actually get a system. Residents from Houston to Pensacola to continue to closely monitor the progress of this developing storm. If I had to narrow it down a little farther, it would be between Lake Charles and Biloxi.
We are watching yet another low pressure system that is associated with the same trough of low pressure. This low is located just off the east coast, east of Jacksonville. The site has an INVEST up for the system and Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) estimates are 1.0. The National Hurricane Center will send out a recon tomorrow to investigate this low.
I believe that the Gulf low has a better chance of development, despite the rapid development of the east coast system being that it was an upper low and that moved down to the surface all in one day. (The LLC is still in a developing stage).
There are a couple reasons why I don't expect development from the low. Well for one, its looks less organized than it did earlier. #2 Once the Gulf of Mexico disturbance develops further, we could see an increase of shear over the Bahamas. And #3 A trough is forecasted to move south, pulling the low northward in a few days. Now one model does take the low southwest, towards Florida. But so far the chances of that happening are unlikely. Currently, I am forecasting the low not to do much (Both strength and movement shouldn't change a whole lot) over the next few days. The trough moving south should eventually pull the low NEWD and it shouldn't affect any landmasses. Hopefully, we will be able to get a better handle on this low tomorrow.
As for the remainder of the Atlantic basin, there is a westward moving wave just east of the Leeward Islands. This wave was also mentione in the National Hurrucane Central tropical weather outlook early this morning. However, this wave is moving into an area with sinking air. Therefore, development shouldn't occur.
A tropical wave is emerging off the coast of Africa. The wave has gained a bit of convection over the last few hours. However, this wave is also moving into another area with sinking air. Development from this wave is unlikely. There is yet another wave behind this one over the continent of Africa. The first wave could increase the moisture levels across the eastern Atlantic, causing conditions to become increasingly favorable for the next wave to move off the coast. While it is too early to speculate on whether or not the second wave will develop, it is something that we will have to watch over the next few days.
The rest of the Atlantic is quiet. The Bermuda is much farther south than average. This is in response to the subtropical low over the central Atlantic. Until the low moves NEWD and out of the picture, the central Atlantic will continue to be covered in sinking air (subsidence).
There are three decent waves over the continent of Africa this evening. This may be the beginning of the African wave train. It will be interesting to see what happpens to these waves once the emerge off the coast. Usually the last one to move off has the greatest potential for development. This is because the waves out ahead of the last one, casuses an increase in the moisture levels across the eastern Atlantic. All three waves have potential but the last one has the better chance. I will be closely monitoring these waves over the next few days as conditions are forecasted to become increasingly favorable for development. Its just a matter of time!
The rest of the discussion is from my discussion posted yesterday. Not much has changes since then...
Sea Surface Temperatures
The trend of warming SSTs in the eastern Atlantic Continues
http://152.80.49.210/products/OTIS/otis_glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/nao.gif
There are no signs of the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic beginning to cool. In fact, there are still some signs that the waters in the region are still warming. Like I said a few days back, this is in respopnse to two things...#1 The weak easterlys across the Atlantic basin. This is normal for an El Nino episode. #2 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has turned negative as forecasted. As long as the NAO stays negative, we will continue to see sea surface temperatures warm off the coast of Africa and also off the east coast. The models continue to show negative NAO conditions through the forecast period.
Long Range Computer Models Continue To Show Increasingly Favorable conditions acros the Eastern Atlantic through the week...No change from the post a few days ago
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/latest/f12.gif
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/latest/f180.gif
The 180H operational AVN model shows the 15 degrees celsius line in the central Atlantic much farther north than the 12 hour forecast. This means that the cooler subsiding air will likely begin to diminish, which will allow the to move farther north. Bastardi also mentioned this a few days back. I also mentioned this on a few of the weather forums.
This also relates to the North Atlantic Oscillation forecasted to turn negative. The troughs over the northwest Atlantic stay farther north, allowing a ridge to build to the south. The NAO turning negative is a good sign that the tropics willbegin to heat up rather soon.
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Alex k
Unregistered
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First developement chances of three things: The Low off South Carolina, The disturbance in the gulf, and the wave that has exited the coast of Africa.
The low off SC. It has a chance, but the convection needs to get on the center for it to really get cranking. I'll give it a 25-35% chance.
The Disturbance in the Gulf: There is no LLC as I can see, but if one is forming as I type, I like its chances. I'll give it a 30-40% chance, much higher if a LLC is detected.
The Wave off Africa: One of the most robust I've seen this year; it has held together rather well. However sinking air will likely be its demise. However, the Eastern Atlantic is slowly getting more and more moisture. I'll give it a 10-13% chance.
My numbers may seem low, but I tend to be a touch on the conservative side sometimes nowadays.
Please be respectful to everyone's opinions. They may see something you don't see, or be interpreting the things they see differently. Remember the uproar I caused a couple of years ago with my wave mongering? Let's not let it happen again
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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WOW, I have spent most of my evening trying to read all of today's post. You guys have been pretty busy today. I have not been able to look at a lot of data tonight, but I did get a chance to look at the GOM loop. Does not look as impressive as it did earlier, but I do believe that it has a decent chance to form. If it sits out in the gulf longer than what is currently being perdicted, how much impact will that have on the future track and landfall of this system? T. Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Matthew ignored my request for cleaning up his posts, so I have banned him. In the process of cleaning up this board a few legitimate posts were inadvertanly moved off because of the way the system works. You can find all of them in the Storm Forum.
Matthew I gave you several chances, and you still ignored the requests. I really dislike having to do this, but there comes a point where I must. Feel free to create your own tropical web site -- I can refer you to some hosting services if you wish, and I will link it on our links page. Thanks.
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