Caneman
Unregistered
|
|
I Forgot to post my name Rad
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Post the city ? Whats up Largo, 
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
SUP CANE !!! Bit breezy tonite huh??? 
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Cane , go to your "settings" and go to "personal settings" and fill out what you want to then submit and "BAM" it will be there. C-YA !!!
You have be logged on for this to work "cane man"!
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
Edited by John C (Thu May 23 2002 04:37 AM)
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
yesterday bastardi said something about hurricane tracks possibly becoming trained this year again instead of random. as a precursor to how future season storms might want to behave, whatever the current wannabe disturbance does might clue us in on what will occur later. i've found it much more effective to be cynical about the chances anything has of being bad for some place in the u.s. (trick i learned from jj), this one is no different. several model solutions want to shear it out offshore or jet the low northeast as a frontal low. though it may choose to be pesky and scrape along florida and visit me up here in the carolinas with rainfall, i'm more inclined to think it will stay east and out to sea.
there really still isn't anything impressive with the whole breakaway system yet, still just a likely but not certain option. at least there will be real relief from the cold spell here, after one more night in the low 40s. hey, we hit 72 today, satisfying enough (haven't hit 70 since last friday)...
|
HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
|
|
Just like the last couple of years I take the models like a grain of salt. Pictures show a thousand words and from the vapor loops I see a low forming and heading out to sea. I could be wrong but I think here in sunny S. Florida the weather will be sunny all weekend. Just my opinion.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Been here all the time and reading every post... Hard for me to get to excited about the tropics in May, although looking at the latest IR, things do seem just a tab bit interesting south of Cuba. But it's early, and there's a ton of shear in the area. All a matter of persistance now... lets watch and see!
Hey, I'm in it for the long haul... and its going to be a long season I think... Gotta pace myself.... hehe
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I've been looking at all the sat. loops and the WV and I don't see how this system,even if it does develop,will go anywhere except east. I don't see how it can possibly make it to around Florida and the east coast like the models are trying to say it will.What would push it straight north? I can see maybe NE or ENE but I can't see a shot north.Can someone please help me with this?
|
CaneMAn
Unregistered
|
|
I agree Shawn, iut seems too far east already to affect U.S. Anyone seeing it steering more North or West. I know it still may not devlop but rain in Florida would be ok especially here in Pinellas County. We are one of the 3 direst counties in the state.
|
GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 109
|
|
We need the rain bad up here in NE Fla. we have all of these "rednecks" that are just waiting to start a fire to burn stuff. If nothing else, the convection has stirred up interest. I remmeber last year that there were hardly any people here at all till the first storm. Hey Yo, it's survey time..
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I'm beginning to wonder if it is actually taking more of a ESE track.I think there is a small anticyclone to the SW of this system that is helping to steer it in that direction.The bottom line is that I'm not real hip yet to the different air patterns and how they influence these systems,but I for the life of me can't find a single thing that would cause this to ever be any kind of threat to anything but the fish.Please someone correct me if I am wrong.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at the latest vis loop I agree with Shawn and Caneman. However, the last few loops indicate that the shear north and west of the system maybe relaxing somewhat. Add to the fact that low pressure systems sometimes develop on the tail end of a frontal system, as what could be happening in the case with this distrubance. And if the disturbed area remains persistant (sometimes it takes days), development is possible if all the other conditions are favorable, even in May... That being said, frontal systems especially this time of the year can start backing up towards the north as a warm front... this could be the only trigger that gets the system moving towards the north IMO....
Several models (AVN and ) as Steve posted earlier indicate some type of significant low pressure system off the coast of SC/NC in about 120 hours
Models geesh.... sometimes I think models are basically useless unless they come with legs... hehe
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I do know that the TPC discussion from this morning said that there was another low that was already forming east of the bahamas as well as the low trying to form in the caribbean. I'm wondering if the low that is east of the bahamas NOW is the low that all these models are picking up on but at the same time are not recognizing the low forming in the caribbean. This may be why the EURO is wanting to put something in the GOM; it may be the ONLY model picking up on the formation of something in the caribbean?!?! Wasn't it the EURO last year that was the ONLY model to pick up on Allison? Any comments on this?
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
Actually, if you go to Accuweather.COM and go to Joe Lundberg's column for today,he mentions about the low that is forming east of the Bahamas.I would really like someone with more experience than myself to check this out because I'm really starting to believe we have an interesting situation developing here.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
By the Way, has now put this area in the caribbean as in INVEST on their web site.Get ready people. HURRICANE SEASON IS UPON US!!!
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
I think Joe is right on this storm that looks like it will develop. Models seem to be coming into more agreement. He did mention it will be a hybrid and probably won't be named. I was checking some of the AFD's for the Carolina's. They are thinking gale/storm force possible right now. Still a little early. Most of the discussions have been refering to this as a cold core system, so it likely won't be named.
--------------------
Jim
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
The actual area of Circulation (low pressure) is moving to the NW slowly. You're looking at the convection blowing off from the jet that is blowing across the NW caribbean. This will abate as the low gets cutoff and should steer north as the high builds over the Carolinas. Check the INVEST animation for a look see. We're still a day or two from development. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
Hey, Steve.I'm all confused.If the high is centered around the Carolinas,wouldn't this system be on the south part of the high? If that is the case then wouldn't that cause a push more to the west? Please help me !!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
an invest, huh? with this damned slow computer i'm not going to bother looking up the site, but that doesnt surprise me. look at the caribbean visible, you can see a weak surface low west of jamaica on the western edge of the frontal tail. it is more convective and more interesting-looking than the large frontal low currently NE of the bahamas. it is the caribbean low that is being tracked northward over the next few days and intensified off the carolinas. the models have been picking it up for several days now, and now i can see a surface low in the caribbean, so i'm starting to believe it's a real deal, but it still hasn't quite established itself. there's still plenty of shear and despite being mostly cut away from the westerlies.. it still is around a cold and nontropical upper air mass, so the low has not only to strengthen but also to become more tropical before it gets really interesting. but yes, this is finally becoming worthy of some concern. even as an early season hybrid system it could cause some pretty rough weather on the southeast coast if it comes close enough. right now the mrf at least has it pretty far off the east coast, and the trend has been to shift it east, but if the low develops it will have a fair amount of time over tropical waters and the strength and persistence of the upper trough remains to be told. if it pulls out quickly and the ridge builds in before our low takes the fast train to the north atlantic, we might have a meandering early season rainstorm a'la allison drifting around for memorial day weekend.
|
BabyCat
Unregistered
|
|
5/23
Just received my first listserv posting from re: a disturbance by Cayman.
fyi
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
