CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Minor Update at 4PM:
Looks Like we have TD#2 in the gulf... more to come shortly.
Minor Update at Noon:
The Gulf System is looking bette now, but still too close to land to really leap forth. Aircraft Reconnaissance is heading out tomorrow to check on it.
Original Update:
There is a trough of low pressure that's creating two interesting areas worth watching. One in the north central Gulf about due south of Mobile, Alabama, and another east of the carolinas. Both are driftng, and both could slowly develop.
Each system is in a fair local environment to develop quicker, but outside features (like an upper low near Texas) are keeping things in check. There is hardly any chance of either deepining quickly into anything dangerous, but still one of the two hotspots may have a chance. The one East of the Carolinas will tend to move south a bit, and then probably out to sea. If and when that happens it could get faily close to Florida, so it's worth an eye. By the time it does this conditions will be more favorible for development. The gulf system will cause rain somewhere, or at least enhancing the normal afternoon variety storms. This one has a better chance of development if it can hold out a bit longer and keep itself away from land.
What's my opinion on the chances of the gulf one forming?
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-------------]
Atlantic?
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-------------]
Both could go either way at this point, we'll have to wait and see just a few more days.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 04 2002 03:59 PM)
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I'm still not convinced. I think it is too close to land now and is moving towards it. As with so many other ones lately this one waited too long to start cranking. I don't have any idea what is keeping these systems lately from forming but it is getting a little frustrating to sit and watch this happen time after time. One of these babies has to develop sooner or later..... it looks like now it will be later.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
but it is getting a little frustrating to sit and watch this happen time after time. One of these babies has to develop sooner or later.....
On an acedemic level, I have to agree it is frustrating, but in real life, I would not wish severe weather on our friends in the N Central Gulf (or anywhere for that matter). To give myself something to do instead of being frustrated that they are NOT developing is to try and figure out *why* they didn't and give thanks my mobile home isn't getting blown off the bricks it sets on...nor are any of my friends or neighbors.
I just remember that when these things *do* develop, they often cause many people more than just a little acedemic excitement.....I was in Biloxi when Camile came through, and that wasn't acedemic excitement at all, it was terror.
Yes, I am a devout weather enthusiast but never ever hope for the formation of severe weather to threaten me or others. .... however, if you want a storm for yourself, tell me where you live and I'll try and send a small F1 tornado your way 
I will say that my good wishes aside, it does look like the N GOM is starting to develop rotation and some banding is evident, including what looks like a classic feeder band may coming in from the south.
It may not develop into a storm, but I'd surely take my umbrella if I lived in the Mibile area +- a hundred miles....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Taking a look at http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/satblast/satBlast?lat=30.741739&lon=-86.485451&width=450&height=225&zoom=2&SatType=VIS&Map.x=226&Map.y=149
I'd almost swear it HAD developed. You can see banding and a feeder forming.... Any surface data supporting this? Radar shows apparant rotation just out of range of what would appear to be a center of rotation. Stuff moving NW on the east side, and SW on the west side of the pics I'm seeing...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I'm new here posting, but have depended on this site for a couple of years now for my hurricane info. I agree with you Ricreig, according to http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com/GOM.html
that system is rotating as far as I'm concerned ! I'm in Mobile and it's quite breezy here, the clouds have "that look" to them, and IMHO I think we're gonna get some yucky weather. I'll still leave it up to you experts though ! Thanks for a great site !!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
I'll still leave it up to you experts though !
Definitely NOT an expert here, but I've been looking up for a lot of years Hopefully, this one will be a refreshing breeze for you, not a damaging wind.
It does have the earmarks of getting wound up a bit though....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Alex K
Unregistered
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This system is significantly healthier looking than yesterday, when I just about gave up hope on it. It has ample convection, and appears to be moving ever so slowly to the north. Yet the does not believe it will develope. I don't try to diss them; they are the most reliable forcasters out there. However, it still could develope today. No one thought Allison would develope last year until it did.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It doesn't have time to develop because it is too close to land already. It was forecasted to move west and instead is moving north.... like that was a big surprise. This one will be just a rainmaker for the north gulf coast and as usual we stay hot and dry here because of being on the west side of it. The system off the east coast will be nothing more than a fish spinner even if it does develop. I'm really starting to wonder about this season.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Don't give up yet Shawn. It feels like a depression here today, except we haven't gotten any rainfall. There are showers moving into lower St. Bernard and lower Plaquemines Parish right now. Maybe we'll get some of that action later this afternoon.
The system should turn west down the road. Bob Stokes on just said it's already moving west. Steve Lyons said it would on the last TU. The blocking high to the north should steer it your way. The question is whether or not it's over land or just offshore once it turns. Technically, I think the low could still skirt off NE in front of the nose of another high down in the Gulf, but what do I know?
And finally, one of the segments of Atmospheres tonight deals with Alison. Maybe if you close your eyes really tight... Nevermind. Wait until Wednesday. If things work out, you'll be getting some tropical influence.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Shawn
Unregistered
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Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. This is forecast to just barely move inland and then slide West towards Houston.
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Anonymous Carl
Unregistered
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check out buoy 42007
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caneman
Unregistered
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That post was from me.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I've looked and looked and I don't see a westerly movement to it yet. If it were to start moving directly west NOW than it could possibly have a shot of some sort of development but it is suppose to continue on a NNW march first. I also thought I noticed the storms on the NE side of the system being blown off to the NE. Correct me if I'm wrong but that is not a positive sign for development, right? One more thing, why is the waiting until tomorrow to possibly send a recon? It will certainly be too late then.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Definitely looks like a TD in the GOM. Drifting North; will it stall over water. LLC just off SC as well: stationary. But could be suppressed southward. Looks like it is slowly organizing per vis loops. Surprised hasn't posted TDS on GOM system though. Interesting to see a power struggle develop. If GOM system shifts west it would lose influence on the other, and maybe two TDs. Cheers!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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BOUY DATA FROM THE ONE SOUTH OF DAUFIN ISLAND LOOKS INTERESTING. wIND IS PICKING UP AND PRESSURE IS DROPING.
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houstontracker
Unregistered
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All right everybody time to wake up. Things are starting to heat up a little.
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Also T#'s are out on the system. T1.5
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The just put out a special dist. statement about the GOM system but only to say that it basically will not be classified because of being to close to land and it headed towards land. Wow, what a big surprise!! I guess this means they will cancel the recon that was suppose to fly out there tomorrow.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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GOMEX: We have a TD here, folks. isn't going to bother issuing advisories though because of it's proximity to land. It looks like the LLC is just on the ne side of the convection...haven't checked buoys at all but I'm sure there are some 25-30 knot winds and lower pressures. It's a rain event, that's all.
EC low: This one has gained convection today. This would could move south and spin up a rather significant cyclone near the Florida EC by mid-week. Two things need to happen for this to occur:
1. The upper trough loses it's influence on the low allowing the high to build south.
2. The GOMEX low moves west.
One of these things is happening already but the first one is the most important. The question is, when will it occur?
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 04 AUG 2002
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
Looks Like a Deppression already, but lets not ruin anyones weekend by having them to start watching this thing and report to work LOL. Weekends always seem to be slow for forecasting 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ooooops left out the import part LOL  SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1014 MB LOW E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR
28.5N88W AT 12 UTC IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. SEE MIADSAAT FOR MORE
DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE MOSTLY E OF THE
CENTER FROM 27.5N-31N BETWEEN 89W-84.5W.
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