57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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5AM and the loop still looks impressive!!!! T.Leap 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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FINALLY a heavy feeder band moving in. I just woke up with some loud thunder and heavy rainfall. Looks like we'll get a couple of inches with this squall. Better late then never.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Again, I caution everyone Not to depend on these models so much. My hunch was right on the remains of Bertha just stalling and eventually raining itself out. It never did take that west to southwest move or the continual northwest track that the models said it would. Now if a dummy like me can sit here and out perform these models sometime, then we need to start paying closer attention to other possibilities that the models are not picking up on. That brings me to TD#3. The models are still bullish on this trough picking it up and sending it out, but we all see what is going on here and it is leaning towards the models being wrong again. I'm not saying that I'm 100% sure that the models will be incorrect on this one because I know that the logical thing is to think that TD#3 will be picked up. However, models never what to go out on a limb on things, which means they would NEVER predict a trough MISSING a system. The models could be right still, but right now I'm leaning towards this thing making it into the gulf. I can't believe I'm actually ageeing with Joe B. HAHAHA!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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K so is everyone ready for Bertha #2.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What do you mean?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like its headed for the gulf again, shawn , now reason it wouldn't develop if it got there.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I don't think there is a circulation left anymore. It would take too much for it to get going again. Not only that, I think the storms will fade off once they get back into the water.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey Steve,
Have looked at the bouy 120 NM East of Cape Canaveral?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010
The water is certainly warm enough to sustain Tropical growth.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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For those of you who don't have this link.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn there is definitely a circulation, look at the visible. It looks better than when it hit land.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Appears to be heading east right now on vis loop. Is this temporary?? Will a new LCC form under the deep convection?? Doubt it. Looks like it's making it's move. If it doesn't stall, it will spin fish. Cheers!! Steve H.
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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TD-3 is here for our entertainment pleasure. I dont think it's gonna do a thing. I've seen more impressive 'Nor Easters' on the Jersey shore. We in the Florida Keys are still watching for one of those bad boys coming off the African coast that tend to bee-line straight towards us.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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does appear to have moved SE. The center is clearly visable on sat. at 30.3 76.44. May just be a slight jog east on the continued south movement but only time will tell
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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now exposed at 30.36 76.4. Looks to be heading out. will probably be a fish spinner.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TD #3 appears to have the LCC wobbling in a loop. We'll see if this thing goes NE or sits. Got a feeling if it doesn't make it's move today, someone may have trouble on the east coast. Evn though it's getting sheared right now and has it's northern half exposed, the overall circulation is more symetrical. If if stays put for 24 hours, and has the ridge build over it...look out. Cheers! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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During the past hour, it appears that TD#3 has lost the LLC, as it has gottten sucked into the MLC underneath the center. Could a new center be emerging to the SW??? Check the vis loop out. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I've looked at the visible, Radar, and IL and I can't detect any E motion to this except for a jog right around 11AM. It also makes you wonder how there are no probabilities for Florida even though it's right on it's doorstep. Maybe that's why I don't work at the .
Keith
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I have been tracking the center all morning on visibles. I have it at 30.4 76.42. It is completely open on the northern side. It has been basically sitting still for the past few hours. If anything, it has nudged a tiny bit west in the past hour. It's so close to the magical 30 degree mark that I can't beleive they aren't discusing the possibility of the trough passing it by. Also, it apears to be to the west of the main trough axis. Am I wrong on this????
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nickd
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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i agree. It doesn't look like it's moved that much at all. Has the LLC moved under the convection? In the next few hours we will find out more. Is it me or has the been sleeping lately? On Sunday they acted like nothing notable was going to come out of the Gulf system and all of a sudden we have TD #2 and then hours later we have Bertha. Even on the weather channel at around 3:00 they said lots of rain but no tropical formation when you could see clearly from the radar that something was spinning tightly. I wonder how many people in Louisiana got caught off guard with Bertha? Don't get me wrong I fully respect the as one should but I do have questions about their methods of doing things. Just my 2 cents.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I have lost the center as it is backing SW under the convection. should be upgraded soon. Probably an intermediate advisory coming out soon.
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