Anonymous
Unregistered
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i have seen a spin there to the last couple of loopes but thats it anyone else see anything.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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done vacationing. i see that nothing much has happened. watched on limited media bertha track back offshore and then fail to do anything interesting. lost track of cristobal.. which turns out to be pretty much what happened with everybody. and, of course, read the new forecast by dr. gray's bunch at colostate. not convinced.
gray has brought up some truly lazy analog years to describe the overall global picture. for one el nino doesnt look moderate at all, and for two inhibited deep tropics activity doesnt necessarily translate to what happens in the subtropics. anyhow who cares, i'm still on 12-8-4. yes i know that i only have one more tropical storm left. i hear you NOAA, gray, ed dunham... but i must see this to believe.
three pathetic systems down, six or nine to go.
nothing looking particularly threatening in the basin. gulf watchers can only dream. area north of puerto rico is sort of interesting.. but doesnt look to be much of a surface feature. maybe a weak deep layer cyclone forming over subtropical waters off the mid atlantic along that old front, in spite of rising pressures. very far from getting a warm core.
and then there's the deep tropics. there is fair agreement that little will come from there this year.. this i can believe. the meatier waves havent arrived yet, neither has the subsidence or fast easterly flow left. anything from here will most likely have to work its way into the subtropics to develop. maybe a mid season storm or two will manage to squeeze through.
this coming week watch off the east coast or near puerto rico, with a lazy eye. globals dont really like anything out there and neither do i.
side note: you know in the old dukes of hazzard episodes, how it's set in north georgia but was obviously filmed in the hills outside los angeles? its starting to look like california up there.. drought is significantly worse than it is here. hardwoods are already shedding leaves, pine beetles are mangling the evergreens, and to top it all off the weeds are dying on the roadsides. a tropical system this year would be a godsend if it didnt wreck too much.
HF aikenSC 2110z11august
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Area north of PR getting a littler better organized today. I think this area will produce our next storm. Time will tell.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Welcome back! AS you said you didn't miss much. I really thought earlier today that the SE GOM would fire up but again looks like I am wrong. The caribbean may be something to watch, if the convection is still there tomorrow, who knows what might happen. T. Leap 
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/11/02/ 9:15 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook:
We are closely monitoring an area of low pressure located north-northeast of Puerto Rico. The low has become slightly better organized throughout the course of the day. In addition, convection is still on the increase. Some slow development is possible over the next 48 hours. Chance of development... 2/10.
Tropical Weather Discussion:
A large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is located across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The convection over the western Gulf is in response to the interaction between an upper level disturbance rotating around high pressure centered over North Carolina and a surface trough along the Texas and Louisiana coastline. The convection should fizzle tonight and redevelop tomorrow. Further organization isn't anticipated.
The other area of convection in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is related to a stalled frontal boundary over the EGOM that extends across the Florida peninsula and into the western Atlantic. In addition, there is an upper level low located over the southeast Gulf. This area needs to be watched. However, as long as the upper low stays in place, development won't occur.
The Caribbean Sea remains quiet. In the northwest Caribbean Sea, a weak tropical wave extends from Cancun, Mexico, through Honduras and Nicaragua. This wave is lacking convection and development is not expected. In the southwest Caribbean, we were watching a low pressure system near Panama. This low is over land and should move into the EPAC. Development from this low in the Atlantic basin isn't likely.
The central and eastern Caribbean Sea is very quiet. There is a weak wave over the Windwards but the majority of convection is farther north, over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. This wave has become slightly better defined over the past six hours. In addition, convection has also been on the increase. This low will have to be monitored closely. If development were to occur over the next 48 hours, it would likely get picked up by the same trough that forced Christobal northeast. If the low were to develop later on, a more WNW track would be the most likely scenario. This is all speculation at this point.
The central Atlantic is being dominated by dry sinking air being caused by the strong Azores high. The models continue to weaken the high over the next few days, lessoning the subsidence over the area slightly.
The next system we should keep an eye on, is a wave emerging off the coast of Africa. Yesterday, a strong wind surge moved off the coast, causing a squall line to develop. This was related to the wave about to exit the coast. The squall line isn't a good sign for development. However, the wave does have a nice circulation associated with it. Both the AVN and MRF (GFS) develop this wave once it reaches about 45W. Development seems unlikely but it does bear watching as we are getting to the point to where we need to keep a close eye on this region.
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland, TWWFT
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
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http://www.independentwx.com
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atlantic swirl
Unregistered
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NRL has a new invest, looks like 90L, but there is no pics up yet, which area of convection do you all think it is ?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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hmm.. i'll go take a look. bet its the little system north of puerto rico.
HanKFranK 0234z12august
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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yep. 90L.. invest #10. initialized at 25kt/1014mb, 21.8N,64.0W. didnt see much in this feature when i brushed up on things earlier. honestly thought it was a mid or upper feature by signature. funny thing is, the isnt mentioning it in their outlook at all. can tell it is getting NW shear, but not moving quickly, so that shouldnt be a big problem. as for whether things will improve, got to go look at models and shear analyses.. movement probably being affected by the post frontal/upper low up to the north off hatteras.
by the way i've noticed the earlier mentioned mrf (or now) storm that comes out of the cape verde wave alley next week. not one to believe in such things developing there based on how that part of the basin looks.. but not against the wave being energetic enough to maybe consolidate later. just have to watch and see what gets through.
HF 0243z12august
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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90L.. invest 10. don't see much to suggest a closed low with this system. convection is weaker than earlier but probably just fluctuating.. environment is marginal. rating is too weak. don't see this disturbance organizing in a hurry.. moving just north of due west.
the deep layer low east of the mid atlantic isnt moving much, and seems to have a surface reflection. it could turn into a hybrid system if it can organize before the next trough comes by and gets it.. slim but remotely possible.
HF 0351z12august
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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There won't be any troughs pulling this low north anytime soon. IF a trough were to pick it up, it would be the low currently off the east coast...the same trough that foreced Christobal northeast. But the low may continue on a more west to west-northwest track. The Bermuda high is expected to build south and west since the Azores high is forecasted to slightly weaken.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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ok, i am away for 10 days and miss out on two names systems! At least nothing too exciting happened. Interesting to see an invest up on the 1014 mb low north of the islands. Needs to fire some deep convection before i start to take much notice of it!
Anyway, just a brief post to say i am back.
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous-doug
Unregistered
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90L now on the NOAA storm floater loops
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Anonymous Kimmie
Unregistered
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Welcome Back Rich!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Why is it not on the outlook?????? Do they not put things on the outlook til the are sure things now???
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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oops.. did the math and this is the 11th invest of the year, not 10th. only show around right now.. sideshow at this point. moving slowly wnw, fairly healthy convection.. but only a weak hint of circulation. probably not closed. yes jason as you said a trough wont get this system anytime soon.. but it is slowing the deep easterly flow and allowing the convection to cluster. shear analysis says mostly ok.. only issue now is whether a low pressure center will evolve. something to watch for next couple of days. fair.
deep layer low east of virginia looking less cold core with time.. but not making any great leaps or bounds. probably start accelerating NE in the next 24hrs, so not over warm water for much longer. slim to none.
bastardi kept mentioning a possible system developing in the eastern gulf and moving partway up the east coast. have to admit the convection has less of a dumb, sheared appearance today. something to watch, nothing to grasp at this point. there is some weak model support. slim.
anything developing this week will be slow to evolve... very little model support for anything, no big focusing mechanism. personal thought, best chances with 90L.
HF 1517z12august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HF raised my question...I too saw the latest Bastardi video and noted his interest in the eastern GOM...that has been sold as an upper feature, which I believe it has been, but the actual vortex seems to be very slow to lift out to the NE as predicted...and now it looks like a broad area of lower pressure may be controlling the weather flow around it at about 86 west about 200 miles west of SW Florida, any body else see this? EDS.
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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Can someone please explain what the is, and also where do you find the #11 Invest info. Sorry to ask, but would like to understand more. Thanks
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Larry
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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NRL stands for the Naval Research Laboratory. The web page you want is NRL web page
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Navy Lab use this link
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home
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Anonymous-doug
Unregistered
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also available through www.atwc.org click satellite loops, click loops from Monterrey.
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