Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/14/02/ 9:45 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook
We are monitoring an upper level trough in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This is an upper leavel feature. Therefore, development is not expected. We are also watching a tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles. Development, if any, would be very slow to occur. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea are marginal, at best. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Tropical Weather Discussion
The convection in the Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper level trough. For tropical development we need low pressure at the surface. Pressure in the area is about 29.85 inches and steady. Now earlier today, we did see a few pressure drops but that is normal for the Gulf during the afternoon hours. Now if the area had time to sit over water for a longer period of time, the greater potential of development. But the flow is out of the southwest. So this area of convection shouldn't remain offshore for a long period of time. Chance of development...10%.
We are watching another wave just east of Trinidad and Tobago. This wave is racing to the west...usually an inhibitor of development. the wave has shown some outflow and it does have moderate convection. However, conditions out ahead of the wave are unfavorable for development. There is fair amount of subsidence over the eastern Caribbean. In addition, the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is centered over the central Caribbean Sea. The is causing a lot of vertical wind shear over the area. The SHIPS model takes the wave to a strong 63 knot tropical storm in 72 hours. But obviously, SHIPS is well overdone. Tropical development is not expected.
The wave that was over the Bahamas is now over southern Florida, causing isolated showers and thunderstorms. The wave will continue to a west to west-northwest track into the Gulf of Mexico. Development is highly unlikely.
There is still a very slim chance of development off the east coast later this week but don't count on it. Some of the energy from the disturbance that was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico a few days ago will emerge off the east coast. Anything that were to develop would move out to sea.
There are a couple waves worth mentioning in the eastern Atlantic. But none of them are showing signs of development and they won't be any threat to land for at least a week even if they were to develop.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Carl
Unregistered
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If anyone can explain to me how Steve Lyons could come on TV 5 minutes ago and say that pressures in the western GOM are HIGH, I would really appreciate it.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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all i can tell you is the gulf ball is still firing at 9.00 pm this thing looks like it is ready but every weather man said no way they said the same thing about a storm name opael
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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You should have listened to Barometer Bob's broadcast about everyone comparing systems that haven't even developed to Betsy, Andrew and Opal. This systems shouldn't develop.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Agreed Jason. Bob's show tonight was great. There was a lesson for the wishcaster in all of us. I like to talk about stuff I see out there, but you won't find me predicting a Cat-5 hitting Miami out of a t-storm complex at 10/32. I agreed with Bob's comments about comparisons of Gulf convection to Opal also.
Now having said all that, the Gulf may be warranting a second look. There's just something puzzling about the way the convection is firing up under that ridge.
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GULF/ir/latest.ir.jpeg
I don't know how out of date this will look when you get back to the thread, but the post is about 10:50pm CDT Wednesday. I posted my scenarios yesterday along with an addition today. But I'm out of ideas after 24 hours. One would think with the wave crossing Florida and this convection sitting to my SW, there is liable to be some pretty serious precipitation converging somewhere between Beaumont and Panama City in the coming days. A move to the west still seems unlikely in the near-term since the upper trofto its W and NW is holding this whatever-it-is at bay. In any event, it can't be completely ignored. Thursday's 24 hour buoy comparisons should provide some clues as to whether or not this blob has any life in it or not.
Steve
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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Looking athe convection blossom now. If the storng convection persists through the morning hours I would be impressed. Until then, my forecast stands. BTW, you might want to login 
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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western gulf disturbance is interesting.. trudging north and refiring convection. wonder how long this can go on without something trying to organize. as of now nothing to suggest much in the way of development.. but due to the place and movement.. obviously some cause to take notice.
still think maybe a central atlantic system.. though the energy seems to have split away early and there are several low level swirls out there.. NAO on the slide making things stew up i guess. figure on something trying to pop out there this weekend.. not sure if the models have it progged right though.
stuff on the is pretty pathetic. another non-invest like the last in my opinion.. fairly sure anyway.
hmm.. wonder what that poll i posted earlier says. off we go.
HF 0537z15august
(by the way steve that last post.. thats me and my tact. known enough real hurricane victims so that i get sort of irritated when people sound like they want a big scary hurricane to hit.. though im sure (hope?) nobody here really wishes anything of the sort.. just my way of saying HEY wait a minute. not like moderating.. just trying to get reasonable people to think about what theyre saying.. its not like were dealing with matthew or paloma nonsense logic/jibberish. nobody ever tells ME to straighten up.. thus the poll on how y'all take my posts. trying to be a model citizen on the board... not a nag.)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Oh I know. No harm, no foul HF. I voted the 2nd option, and last I checked, that was the consensus. And yeah, Jason, I probably should log in. I'm logged in at work, but due to the constant barrage of my wife's internet hearts addiction on yahoo here at home, I have to constantly clear the cookies and history to make this cheeky celeron 450ish run right - that's with cable modem and all.
Western GOM fired up over the Tx/LA border this morning. There's some 3-4" just south of Beaumont. Looks like the trof moved in behind it from the SW and lifted the firing mechanism (whatever it was) up to the coast. It's a non-event unless you're underneath it. The squeeze is on with the westbound wave now out over the eastern Gulf. Looks like somebody in the interior southeast (what is now referred to as hell on earth) is gonna get a drink. Good for them. I like peaches, pecans, vidalia onions and tobacco.
So inquiring eyes have to turn east. Maybe 91L is blazing the trail for its siblings yet to come. At least there's stuff to look at. But I guess the same goes for the guy or gal who gets off of work late and heads to the cantina. There's something to look at, but not much to see. 
Steve
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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What I am seeing now is a weak el nino at 3-4 areas but not warm at 1-2 area off southamerica.The most warm area has 2.0+ warmer waters but that is all.It wont be a factor going into the heart of the season.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Azores high will be the key for the CV season as it is strong but sometimes weakens so let's see what the Azores high does as we enter the peak of the CV season.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Interesting twist with some deep convection at 71W/23N. Watch a look. 91L lloks like it will get removed from Invest soon. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I agree Cyclone Eye. The Azores High and its sister, the Bermuda Ridge are the key components for this season's heart. I've been harping on that since early June. Depending on their sphere of influence at a given time when tropical activity is present will determine the ULLimate fate of that system.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I am a "rookie" (2nd year here at this site) at this stuff so on some of your posts it takes me awhile to figure out the abbrivations and such. The same with some of the other posts here. I really like it when people insert the links to where I can go and see what they are looking at for their discussion on the board. I agree, that while we all like the excitement that goes with a hurricane, anyone that has been through one doesn't wish it on anyone else. There is so much prep work before hand and a day or two of cleanup after even a weak one. As far as the other poster you refer to he really kept me confused..
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hey there fellow weather watchers! Sorry I haven't been here in so long, but I was just "busy" with kids, work, etc.
Anyway...I was looking at the area mentioned near the Bahamas, and from what I am seeing it doesn't look organized right now, although it has a lot of convection with it. Is this the same area the had as 90L Invest the other day? It's in the same general area as that one was, but since I have not looked at any visibles since then I didn't know if it had completely dissipated and this was a new wave or what. I also checked out the OSU Met Site for the wx statements, winds in that area varying from light to moderate and I am not seeing a lot of cloud blowoff that you would see when there is a lot of shear. I did go back into the Models and I noted that on the 13th the ran a test on Tropical Depression AT90L (I think it was AT, not sure but it was the one near DR/Bahamas). The coordinates had it in the same basic area this one is in, with the 72 hour SHIPS forecast giving it winds of 54 knts which we know would be a TS at the least.
I don't know about any other Florida residents here on the West Coast, but here in Polk County last night we got SLAMMED. It was very scary for a while.
Anyway.....just wanted to pop my head in, say hi and get some feedback.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Colleen,
Great to hear from you. I was trying to organize an e-mail campaign to get you back seeing as I hadn't seen you around since around they heyday of a certain since-banned poster.
You didn't miss too much. I was wondering if ShawnS was gonig to show up screaming about Galveston/Brazoria getting all the action today. Doppler Estimates are up to 8" across parts of the Island, and general totals are in the 2-5" range over the last 12 hours. Of course those estimates are always underdone whenever tropical rains fall, so there's no telling for sure.
Glad to have you back just in time for the start of the Real [tm] 2002 season.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Just for you bud:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.80stp/si.khgx.shtml
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_AUS_vis.jpg
Enjoy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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Take a look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
I think that there is a hint of circulation starting up in there.
Thoughts anyone..
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Looks like you might be right about the circulation. looks like the movement is to the keys also. Thanks for the link. You too Steve. I had these bookmarked last year but lost them when the computer crashed. I am getting them back in though. That is one thing I really like about everyone here, they are helpfull as can be. We may not agree on where a storm is going or if its gonna develope, but we are all interested in each others' thoughts on it. Thanks again.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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well.. central atlantic and western gulf are doing zilch. i get the feeling dolly wont pop until next week at the earliest. fine by me.. usually dont have to wait long if theres no active storm, during the month of august.
take it easy, folks.
HF 0040z16august
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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REMINDER we didn't see our first hurricane last year until the first week of september. Erin came off of Africa and struggled with developement before she became a hurricane. Most of us start to get impatient around this time in anticipation of the upcomming peak of the hurricane season. Speaking of that word peak I have been thinking that for the last couple of seasons the Atlantic hurricane seasons has not really fit that profile and the "PEAK OF THE SEASON "need to be towards the end of September. I know that it is the over all averages but our seasons seems to be getting latter and latter as each year passes. Any comments ? Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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