tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Toni, you may be right about September. It always seems to be a busy month.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Anyone notice the wave over the Florida Keys? May be something to watch over the weekend on the Gulf Coast. Has some rotation to it. What do you all think?
SirCane~
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks good SirCane. wonder what the pressures are down there? Also, nice Pin Wheel off the African coast that the models still work into the eastern Caribbean later in the period MRF/AVN, and even hinting at. Ya I know it's dry out there, but the ridge is getting beaten down now, and the fast easterly flow is getting interrupted. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Sir Cane~
The wave passing over Florida today looks better than it has in days, but its still not showing definitive signs of organization. Just healthier.
I like the wave that has passed the half way point and moving towards the leeward islands, has a twist, color and some semblance of a wanna be organized system.
As for the one that went that road before it looks like a comet streaking through the Carib right now.. not a postive sign for development. But, then...we all know how John Hope felt about that area by heart with our eyes closed.
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Anonymous-doug
Unregistered
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I am relatively new at this, and don't have anything to compare this to, but the amount of subsidence in the Atlantic now and all season has seemed to be exceptional...these waves simply become little oasis' of moisture in a desert of dry air...no wonder the Atlantic remains quiet...nothing for them to hang onto...what's with that? EDS.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Doug...I'm also new to this and not even familiar with some of these terms. Is subsidence the same as "dry air"? Is it possible to analyze it looking at a weather map?
Any hint from the experts out there would be great.
CC
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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This is a goofy explanation, but I hope it helps.
Find a sat photo of the Atlantic Ocean. I'd recommend Goes-8. You can view it best on a visible or water vapor loop. Just look for the general clockwise turning across most of the Atlantic (high pressure). Then look at the southern periphery of the high pressure. You will see some clouds (on the visible) pushing south at the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and surpressing the waves further toward the south.
Take a look and see if you get what I'm saying. If not, someone with a real [tm] explanation should be around by then.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurr.html
There's the link to the Visible. If you see this before the Atlantic darkens with night fall, you should see exactly what I was trying to say. Look south of 20 degrees north and between 40 and 60 degrees west. Also, it will help if you click the 'animate' button.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html
That link is for the water vapor. Where it's pitch black, there is little moisture in the atmospher.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://orbit212.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBas26.gif
It looks at quikScat that is trying to form a low pressure and close it. But lacks convection so let's see if it survives.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Steve...got it! Could see it in the links. Thanks a lot
CC
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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im not sure what steve thinks.. but its probably something like this: the surface analysis is putting a dopey little low out there.. which is maybe a max on the wave. it is also at very low latitude. you dont tend to look for cape verde systems to come out of these things right on the .. better chances with 'tall' waves that have convection all the way up their axis and not just little low amplitude bumps. in other words.. you can watch it, but dont hold your breath waiting for it to develop.
the southeastern atlantic is looking better with time.. but still isnt ready. there have been times earlier this season when the was shifted up and shear was weak.. but subsidence and the emaciated waves so far this year have kept it quiet.
other item of interest.. the eastpac is almost as quiet as it was last year during this month. remember how we almost made it through august 2001 without a named eastpac storm? flossie finally formed on the 26th. the activity level in the eastpac basin and atlantic sort of walked hand in hand.. so i wouldnt be surprised if both of them light up at about the same time this year.
anyhow i'm just not as impressed by cape verde storms as most other people here seem to be. almost all of them recurve. it's the late developers, as bastardi has named them, that interest me.
HF 1915z16august
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Sustained winds right now 23 kts; pressure 30.06 in. and falling.
This station is in Long Key, FL
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=lonf1
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The tropical wave is really firing up with convection between Andros Island and the Florida Keys.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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10 years ago today, TD Andrew formed.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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I just find it curious, none of the weather men/women have said anything at all today about the tropical wave off the FL coast. This morning, comments were it will be breezy today. This evening, wind from the east at 20mph, with gusts to 30 mph, but no metion that we have a wave sitting off our coast. A couple of days ago we had a wave pass by and thats all we heard about. Now nothing and this one is starting to look a little impressive. Not trying to be an alarmist, just curious. Any comments. Thanks, Jeanine/Hollywood, FL 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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south fl looks like it is trying but press still high does it have a chance
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Vark
Unregistered
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I live in the Keys. Interesting day here today. It seems like many waves this year have run through the Florida Straits. Does that mean anything at all for the rest of the season, or is it that they are so weak that they don't get influenced as much by the environment?
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Anonymous-doug
Unregistered
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cc-sorry I did not respond sooner...subsidence is SINKING air, usually under higher pressure and it represses convection...this has been a prevelant pattern all season, and as Steve pointed out has been caused by a vigorous high that has pushe the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) further south...these waves usually come across between 10-15 degrees,and this batch and those earlier have been at 5-10 and the air is VERY DRY. I understand the sea surface temps ( SST) are cooler than normal too. until this breaks, and it is getting late in the season, there may not be a Cape Verde season at all.
What does anybody else think?
EDS.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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I really don't think that it is that late in the season. I believe that our seasons is just getting latter than in years past. We are right on schedule this year so far. In comparsion to last year Chantal formed on Aug. 14th, so you could say that we are even a head of schedule this year. If my figures are correct I believe we had 7 named systems to march off the coast of Africa last year the first being TS Barry Aug.2 and ending with Michelle on Oct.29th. Our overall season did not end until Dec. There's a lot of questions regarding this years activity, however in all fairness to this season if we don't see anything seriously spinning by Sept.15th then Cape Verde may have to wait until next year. Still doesn't rule out an active on your door step year. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I think it will be a below average cape verde season but we will see developments from there in the comming weeks at peak time.Azores high will weaken some and then the subsidence will fade away allowing for the waves to organize better.But time will tell what cv we will see eventually but I can see at least a couple of systems forming in the tropical atlantic in the next 4 weeks.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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