Anonymous (HF)
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there isnt a whole lot of deep layer moisture in the southeast part of the basin. waves coming off africa are all strangling. its like the sahara now extends 2000 miles out to sea. the wave coming off this evening is pretty big.. if the subsidence kills it too.. dont expect a lot to happen down there this season. wonder if the next flip will break the pattern and allow something to get through.
there is some eastpac activity brewing possibly.. it's been a while. would expect the atlantic to respond about a week after the next eastpac system forms. this not based on any scientifically proven theory.. just something i've noticed sometimes happens.
still eyeballing the subtropics but with little faith. need a large amplification near the eastern seaboard or off it to make the area liven up.. not seeing that within the near future.
two more weeks left in august. almost a climatological certainty something happens during the timeframe... often a cape verde system. things dont look too good this evening though.
just a random observation: the cold SST spike west of peru has shrunk in coverage and intensity.. it dont think it stoppered the developing el nino, just jammed it for a while this summer. i dont think it will start altering the global circulation during the peak of the hurricane season.. but by the last half of october i'd expect the basin to be mostly under shear. noticed that gray's bunch isnt predicting much in october/november.. i'd guess on maybe an extra storm.. but if i'm going to come close on 12 storms, most of the 9 more i need have to happen in september. getting 8 to be hurricanes and 4 intense would be a miracle.
nope... not bailing out.. going down with the ship this time.
HF 0327z19august
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Anonymous
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I believe this wave approaching the central atlantic has a chance of giving us a Dolly. The low has held together nicely and is starting to show some echoes near the center, This should start to spin up as it passes 50W. Could be some trouble down the road from this. Wave off Africa certainly has a chance as well, and we're in the climo favored time now. We should begin to see the Atlantic moisten up a bit. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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As I woke this morning I was thinking that that wave with the low pressure would open up and dissipate but as I came to my computer and began to look at the pics I can see that it is still hanging on very well and in fact the circulation is starting to have some little convection and if this wave mantains like this before it reaches 50w then it may develop so I will be watching.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous(Bill)
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Off NC, looks like HF called this one nicely over the weekend. Nice tight ball of convection moving NE, small but with outflow developing.
This is our most likely Dolly candidate at the moment.
The wave off Africa does seem to be holding together better than the others, time will tell!
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
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That area off Carolina does look interesting, but still disorganized at the surface. I don't know if it's really moving NE though, seems to be drifting south ala Christobal. Steve H.
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Joe B. mentions this feature in his Tropical outlook video today as possibly moving towards the Bahamas by the weekend. He also said the patterns seem similar to the setup that produced Carol in 54.
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Anonymous (HF)
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the basin just hasnt seemed right since early in the month when the twin weakling tropical storms formed off the coast. then days like today come along and you wonder how things suddenly managed to look entirely different. not that i an certain things have changed.. but some innate sense tells me they have. things have looked futile, unlikely.. today they look.. half formed, again.
have to say bill.. that little feature off the carolinas... cant say i called it. i've been looking there and farther east at lingering features from old trough splits or mccs ejected off the mid atlantic.. whatever is off NC seems different. i didnt see it move off last night.. it was just THERE this morning. no kind of surface feature showing with it.. but in a fairly convergent environment.. so i can imagine such a thing coming together. if it hangs around for another 12 hours maybe that will happen.. but the ball isnt rolling just yet.
out in the central atlantic, around 34/48 there is that combination upper low/surface swirl that is finally associated with some convection. i had sort of gotten bored with the thing and decided that it would just fade out.. but there it is showing signs of life again. maybe my fish spinner wasnt such a dumb idea? well im not convinced here either.. but interested again.
the deep tropics.. well.. still less impressed than the rest of ya seem to be. wave at 35w is very well defined.. but skimming the . so it is going on life support.. but not really doing anything for itself, per se. racing too.. yes it looks ok, but too many things could be wrong with it.
the massive complex that came off africa looks like a freshly sheared sheep.. or maybe like that fierce featured snowman in the nestea commercials becoming a skeleton. yes.. it DID look imposing. well... have to see how energetic the system will be from here.
tie all of this together, pair with something else: bastardi isnt a big guy, its not something he can neatly index and track i guess.. but he did say sources are telling him maybe it will flip to the 'happy' phase later on this week. thats suspicious. supposedly the zone of slowed deep easterlies it creates moves like a big longitudinal blanket from west to east.. so the thing i'll REALLY be watching this week is the disturbance in the eastpac. that could be the start of a west to east chain of development.. if such a thing is occurring.
you guys hang in there.. it is august 19th... good chance we wont make it through the week without something getting tripped off.
HF 1718z19august
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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third sentence, first paragraph.. remove the 'i an'. not sure how i put that in there.
HF 1722z19august
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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From a dry pattern with the azores high strong to a more moist one with the azores high more weak we may be looking for some action in the tropics very soon with those 2 waves especially with the one southeast of the cape verde islands.Also that system off the east coast has to be watched for persistance and for pressure to drop so apparently the atlantic is for some action soon as the heart of the season draws near.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
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Hmm, always gotta remember persistence....anyway, the Dolly wannabe looks abit more ragged, but there is some sort of circulation trying to form, and yep, mebbe it is moving s...anyway, looks like it is getting sheared, expect that (if) TPC picks it up, we wil hear the mantra of the season- "currently in a sheared environment. however, shear may lessen in a day or so...."
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous (HF)
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theres an invest out there by .. but their page is screwed up so i cant tell which disturbance theyre following. i'd guess 92L.. invest 13.. is the low on the strong wave at 10.5/36. noticed that the low over the caribbean is pulling west.. so the ridge in the east atlantic is nosing towards the lesser antilles. if the wave can start developing it will have a good environment ahead.
about 150mi east of myrtle beach that mcc mid layer low is refiring convection. surface obs arent showing anything.. but whatever is aloft is persisting. question now is whether the system can work its way to the surface. it isnt moving much.. my eye says drifting WSW if anything.
either of these systems has a moderate chance of developing at best.
by the way.. ssd has an invest on the eastpac system is tracking.. d1.0. has it at 25kt, 1008mb. fausto coming down the line, just maybe dolly too.
HF 2017z19august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Invest is on carolina low. But the wave dis looking mdecent as well. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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A new ball of convection is forming around 33.5N 75.3W , and I could swear the latest visible loop shows rotation. Guess we will see if this persists, and makes it to the surface. Whatever happens with this one, I agree that the season is likely to be more active soon.
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Anonymous
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North Carolina radar shows a very good ciculation off the coast with a cluster of storms banding into the center, this is were the new blow up of storms are
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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North Carolina radar loop : http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kclt&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none / hope this works.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Here's the model out for the INVEST: ...for what it's worth:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922002) ON 20020819 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020819 1800 020820 0600 020820 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.5N 75.3W 33.7N 75.6W 34.5N 75.1W
BAMM 33.5N 75.3W 33.8N 75.3W 34.5N 74.7W
A98E 33.5N 75.3W 33.6N 75.0W 34.0N 73.8W
LBAR 33.5N 75.3W 33.7N 74.9W 34.1N 74.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020821 0600 020821 1800 020822 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.8N 73.1W 33.8N 71.2W 31.0N 72.3W
BAMM 34.6N 73.1W 33.8N 71.5W 31.3N 71.9W
A98E 34.2N 72.1W 33.8N 69.1W 31.7N 64.8W
LBAR 34.7N 73.0W 35.3N 71.1W 36.5N 67.8W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 59KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.5N LONCUR = 75.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 33.5N LONM12 = 75.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 33.5N LONM24 = 75.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Steve,
..."But the wave dis looking mdecent as well"...
Please translate...
.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You gotta direct that one to Steve H. I can't translate it any better than you can.
Steve
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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This one deserves watching, well, obviously it does because it is close the coast. Here's whats going on:
1. No CLLC has formed yet. This MUST occur in order for TC development to occur.
2. Favorable upper-level winds. This could allow an CLLC to form fairly easily.
3. This system is very new, and convection must be maintained overnight to seriously suggest development.
4. The motion of this system NOW is very, very important to the future of it. If this system is indeed crawling south right now, it may miss the trough and head towards the northeastern Florida coast later this week. Of course, this would only matter if the system develops.
Chance of development:3/10. Persistance and movement is everything.
The wave that emerged off of Africa yesterday still looks decent, but has lost some convection. Development is more likely as this system moves further west. Chance of development: 2/10
That's my take on the tropics. 
As always, time will tell as to what happens.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HF, you stated you couldn't tell (due to problems) which system the INVEST was targeting. What I meant to say was it's on the one off the Carolina coast, but the wave at 9.5N/35W is also looking good. I believe this one has a decent chance to develop. I was in a hurry, since I had a meeting to run to. Sorry for the typos. Cheers!! Invest probably = Christobal; if it develops.
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