CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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The tropics are fairly quiet again. Probably a short lived peace, but quiet. We are approaching the halfway point of August where things climatologically start to ramp up. So it could be active here in a few days.
Strange weather elsewhere in the world includes a lot of unusual flooding in Europe. Just tons of rain all across the mainland and even in Great Britain. Russia has been especially hard hit, Austria is having problems with dams, and even some flooding in London.
Back here, we have nothing much to look at cept a system north of Hispaniola which really doesn't look all that impressive at the moment, and probably destined to be a strait runner. Not to be totally written off, though, as it is moving toward the US.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 13 2002 11:18 AM)
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Do you feel that El Nino will continue to dominate the Atlantic tropical season and as a results we will not have an active year?
I realize that Andrew was later and Camille was as well.
However we haven't seen any signs of any depth in any system yet and the sheer continues to decrease the likely hood any time soon.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There is some westerly shear across the SW Caribbean..will that change..don't know. I think though the disturbance north of the DOminican Republic, should it develop, will not spin fish, but head for the Florida Straits (it's actually looking a lot better this morning). Cheers!! Steve H.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Steve, you are right about the system. I went a little too quick when I looked at it this morning. I altered the main article to reflect this too. 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I'm assuming it's in response to reconsiderations given the overall pattern of the Gulf this year. As I noted the other day, I sent pointcounterpoint an e-mail (specifically to Ken Reeves) asking him to pen Joe down as to whether or not he feels like the northern Gulf season is over based on his forecast of 1/1.7 - seeing as we've already had 1/1. I decided to write this after he mentioned early last week that he would not be altering his landfall/intensity forecast. As noted, he hedged a bit today on the Long Ranger, but it remains to be seen if his forecast from Boothville to Apalachacola verifies.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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After reading around, I think that most of the weather guru's
think that El Nino is weak at best this year.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I really don't think el nino is having a big impact in Atlantic. Its more so the Atlantic ridge if anything which has kept storms from developing in Atlantic. But pressures will be dropping in Atlantic as ridge breaks down over the next few days, so Atlantic will become active over next week or so with a more favorable environment.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Not to mention The Azore High; which is a bit further west and south than normal, is squashing anything leaving the coast of Africa. While a high aloft is good for a develping system the the eastern ITZ is being hampered by being on the edge of it, the systems being virtually deflated of their convection.
I believe the Azore high should move back a bit east and the Bermuda set in a little more solidly. I think if the systems arent as 'shocked' when just exiting they should have a better chance when the hit the mid longitudes (55w-65w).
You really cant call the 1st three systems anything more than
big rain makers;none had any resemblence to even a well formed tropical storm.
Troy
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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have to wonder about some little loose ends. there isnt anything on the table right now, but a couple of things bastardi mentioned are nagging.. and a couple things i've noticed are too.
bastardi talked about the possibility of an arthur-esque storm developing from a gulf disturbance that tracks up the coastal plain and off the mid atlantic.. well, i can see it. some of the globals are suggesting it doing something like that. other thing he mentioned that i saw little in earlier but more in at this hour is the western gulf. convection down there is refiring and arcing under an upper ridge, right on the mexican coast. if it can manage anything it will either track inland or north.. rain for texas either way.
that invest north of hispaniola is very unimpressive. convection comes and goes and is trackable.. but nothing to suggest a surface feature. something to follow but nothing to believe in.
other two areas that have my interest: fish spinner country.. remember that deep layer low that's tracking out to sea off the northeast.. globals have it tracing the north side of the ridge and then backing south over marginal waters, well out to sea. remote fish spinner threat, but something to note nonetheless.
deep tropics: a couple of the waves have low level swirls that may clear the subsidence deadzone. ed mentioned one of them in his forum pieces. the northwestward feature is what i'm most interested in.. it will be near 20/60 tomorrow. trailing wave has a convective burst that is bubbled outside the .. appears robust. dont see that it has much potential, but a possible precursor to waves that can generate something.
a few things to look at as usual, nothing imminent. maybe something interesting by the weekend though.
HF 2241z13august
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm inclined to agree with pretty much everything HF has to say about the tropics.
1. The convection in the western GOMEX looks to be assoicated with an upper-level trough...but may be of some slight interest. It is close to land and in the upper/mid levels...seems like something could slowly brew with perisistance and a water supply. Chance of development: 1/10.
Wave north of Hispaniola:This wave is disorganized and lacks significant and perisistant convection. Development (if any) would be slow to occur and would likely take place in the GOMEX. If this does make it into the GOMEX...it could develop quite a bit there so it MAY be something to watch. Chance of development: 1/10
Fishland...aw, who give a damn about that place? Chance of development...0/10.
East Atlantic: The wave nearing 42/43 west looks interesting. As HF said, it is coming out of the subsidence zone and may need to be watch for further development as it moves west. Conditions are favorable ahead of this system...and it appears to have some potential for very slow development. Chances of development:1/10
Well, we have a bunch of areas with a 0-10% chance of development. Better than nothing, right? Climatology says all hell should soon break lose in the tropics...it looks like that may happen over the next 20 days. Time will tell.
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Y'all hit the big points. The WGoM looks a tad more interesting than it has. If you use a little imagination, you can almost-maybe-kinda-sorta see something that might be getting a little better organized. Pressure off Brownsville was the lowest I found during a limited check - 29.85 - same as yesterday. Could something develop off Texas? I'd give it about a 15% shot. The possibilities? The moisture stays disorganized and continues to flow through LA until the ridge builds in this weekend from the east; trof over plains lifts out, ridge builds in, something sits down there; rains into Mexico; comes north as a broad low and rains upper texas, sw la coast as maybe a TD?
Obvious prediction I made in chat last night: "Hello Dolly" will be overplayed in tv, radio, print and internet media
It occurred to me today that the season has been kind of interesting so far. In a nutshell: opinions are all over the place; models aren't verifying; SST anomolies are in certain concentrations, ridge and trof positions are what they are, etc. And while there are some similarities with recent years, there's something different about 2002. My bet is that more than one or two of us end up with a good seat during the next 2 months.
If it was October or November, the East Gulf/FL rains look like transitional moisture heading for a baroclinic or GA/SC Coast subtropical low.
It sure looks to me like we're headed into the heart of what could be a memorable season. Everything's been falling into place, and now the moisture is starting to show up throughout the Atlantic. If you've been slacking like me, next time you're at the store grab some extra flashlight batteries and jugs of water. You never know.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Where is FISHLAND?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I agree STeve, I almost posted the same words on another message board but held back and didn't. Almost the same words about buying batteries.
I think once it gets going it will be a quirky, interesting and a memorable season.
As long as the water is hot in some places and things keep moving then eventually something will pop.
And, in a year where we already had a storm make landfall, gulffall, landfall.. and another moved SW towards Florida I think this year has real "interesting" potential.
Yep..buy batteries.. make a game plan and sit and watch because something, somewhere is going to happen and I would bet money that there will be another landfall and it won't be some mediocre tropical storm.
Sometimes storms like Andrew and Betsy, both in analog years are more interesting and memorable than a bunch of fish smiling pretty for the satellites before they race off to the shipping lanes.
Do we really want a bunch of Danielles out there following the same track over and over recurving up the middle of the Atlantic? Deep down in our heart of hearts???
Bobbi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I don't think El Nino is affecting the flooding in Europe. And, thats a drama ongoing right now while we sit and complain about the lack of hurricanes.
There are other things that affect the weather besides El Nino.
My son studies sun spots, some people follow ice bergs, pollution, dust clouds and volcanoes. There are other factors and El Nino is just ONE factor.. Keep studying the more we do the more we learn though sometimes unfortunately in hindsight.
You can't blame the dust bowl on a bunch of strong severe fronts moving through Perryton and you can't blame the strange toxic cloud in China on El Nino.
Really sad to see what those in Europe are going through, prayers go out to them.
Just Bobbi
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Great to see you on . There are some professional mets (Ed, Jason Kelly, Greg) that pop out of the woodwork from time to time to add some real insight into things when they get interesting. I agree with your first post completely, and I can't deny in my heart that I don't want at least a little taste of the action.
Yeah. The central European situation is really sad. Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Austria, northern Italy, Germany have all borne the brunt of flash flooding and river overflows. There was a good piece on CNN.com yesterday which had about 30 pictures you could browse through. I have a lot of empathy for those people because of New Orlean's suseptibility to flooding. We haven't had any major flooding on the Southshore since Tropical Storm , but you can bet every 3-5 years, at least 10,000 homes will be inundated. I've been there. The difference here is that the water ponds and bowls where over there it flows because of the topography. Sad any way you look at it.
Again, welcome.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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yes, well, fish spinners arent quite the exciting rush that a hurricane Andrew is for ya.. boo hoo, and you cant get such a fun and wonderous event as homestead being flattened every year. no huge body count, no multibillion dollar disaster.. what a bore. honestly, i'll take a fish spinner if its all i can get, and not feel like some supernatural force is depriving me of pleasure. track 'em all.. let God figure out where to send them. theyre all part of the big picture.
anyhow, if you think avn/mrf/gfs/whatever is the best thing since sliced bread, your fish spinner will instead be a maritime low straight across to europe. if is more your thing, a piece will hang behind, cut off, make you a subtrop or a dolly or maybe something that still cant act tropical.. out around 35/45 this weekend. also start turning NAO more negative, knock down the surface ridge in the western atlantic, start clogging the easterlies to the south and letting the barren tropical waves maybe bulk up.
hmm.. western gulf thing looks about like yesterday.. not the same sort of focal point to it though. probably wont organize before it all moves inland unless a surface feature is lagging back off the mexican coast.. really cant tell.
90L is, in a word, nothing. as a former site spammer used to insist i was. i guess that would also make 90L retared.
it's cloudy here.. an overcast morning in august. this is that gulf to mid-atlantic feature that might go arthur on us later, i guess. further inland.. not impressive.. but maybe will surprise us when it gets offshore. probably not.
thats the story, folks. i'd put money on the fish spinner right now, if i had to vote for one.
speaking of votes.. i was wondering:
thought i'd get some feedback.. see if the shorthand and references i use are on the same page with everybody. ya know... sometimes when reading joe b. i struggle to follow. wondering if by trying to take the same approach with my more feeble background i'm sending more confusion down the line.
later folks.
HF 1550z14august
steve, youre right about hello dolly. at least they cant annoy us with names like edouard and gustav. isidore?? that'll get you beaten up in the 4th grade..
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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There's a really interesting article that talks about solar patterns causing some of the weird anomolies rather than so much with El Nino.
Link to Article
Interesting none the least, and I think Joe Bastardi mentioned this before.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey HankFrank,
You are retared. LOL at the fond memories. I'm still cracking up on it. But don't pick on bobbi. She's one of the honest enthusiasts out there. Speaking of enthusiasts, I think I'm going to drop Colleen and Frank P some e-mail and let them know the coast is clear so to speak. Hadn't seen either one of those fine individuals around these parts since that certain poster you referred to made an aprence (that's appearance btw). Maybe some of you guys would care to join the re-call effort to get them back?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thank you for the link. I'll forward it to my son. He's really into how the solar activity affects or counteracts El Nino. Appreciate it.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Wake up, gurus...
We have 91L Invest on the system at around 53/11.
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