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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2142 - Fri Aug 23 2002 09:43 AM

Today, ten years ago, hurricane Andrew made landfall. The system that forever changed the way hurricanes were treated in Florida. One of the most costly natural disasters in United States history. Thankfully, relatively low in cost of life.

It forever changed the building codes in Florida, and shook up insurance, and changed the landscape of Florida City and Homestead forever. This was the storm that awoken many of us to the real power of these systems.

Since that time Florida has had very few storms, Opal being the only one to even approach it. Other minor systems toyed with us, but nothing on the level of Andrew in the United States.

Andrew levelled homestead, including the Air Force Base. (Much like a system in 1945 that passed directly over Homestead on September 15 with a minimum pressure of 951 mb. One of the lighthouses offshore measured
sustained winds of 138 mph. Making it a strong category 3 (almost a 4) on the Saffir-Simpson scale compared to Andrew's strong category 4.

For hard facts, you can't beat the National Hurricane Center's own report on Andrew, including some photos, satellite imagery, and radar from up here in Melbourne.

Andew actually hit overnight on the 24th.

Are we once again complacent? I'm sure many in Homestead aren't, but the rest of the state... Are we ready for an event like that again? Have we slipped back into taking the lack of storms for granted? In many ways I think we have. Florida's population along the coast hasn't gone down any over the last ten years. Take a flight down the coast, if you don't believe it. There is almost no locations where development is not around. (Exculding the Canaveral National Seashore area) And south florida is jam packed from Miami North. Evacuation routes are planned, emergency management in most cases has done their homework. But the threat remains.

I think Florida as a whole is ready for another storm like that, however many of the people individually are not. Many buildings are not either. Emergency management definitely would be stressed, but i don't think broken if another like that came our way.

Currently, the tropics are quiet in general. A few waves coming off Africa, and a really disorganized system near the eastern Caribbean are the only things out there. Nothing now, nothing in the past week. However this time of year things can change, and change quickly. So we are still watching.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]


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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2143 - Fri Aug 23 2002 11:12 AM

That was an awakening writeup on Andrew and development on the florida east coast, but if we were to look closer, the entire east coast is well over developed in oceanic storm areas. From key West to Long Island ( the catchers mit ) the shore front property is heavily developed.
People tend to forget or are not informed of the history of coastal storms. As a young boy growing up on the Jersey shore ( ca. 1961, give or take a year ) I experienced what they call the GREAT MARCH STORM ( AS IT WAS NOT TROPICAL AND THEREFORE NOT A HURRICANE ) although a spinner, where Long Beach Island was literally wiped off the map. People died and thousands of homes were thrown into the bay to the west. This area today is more developed than ever. There was no forecast of a storm and came at night and thousands were trapped. I'll never forget that as long as I live. It can, and will happen again.
I now live in the Florida Keys ( hurricane Alley ) and that is why I go on this site every day. I never want to be caught in that situation again. A spinner is indeed, the wrath of God.


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Jason M
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
August 23, 2001
      #2145 - Fri Aug 23 2002 09:47 PM

Current satellite pictures are identical to what they were like exactly one year ago. My Point is that people are writing this season off way too early. This is EXACTLY what happened last season. Now am I saying that this season will end just like this one? NO. But you never know what may happen within the next two months.

Satellite image of August 23, 2001:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/goesbrowse/2001/g8ir23AUG200100.jpg

Water Vapor Image August 23, 2001:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/goesbrowse/2001/g8wv23AUG200100.jpg

Hopefully people will realize that the season doesn't end until Nov. 30th.


--------------------
http://www.independentwx.com


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Shear, shear, and More Shear
      #2146 - Fri Aug 23 2002 10:08 PM

WHat was shown yesterday on the shear forecast was nice pinks and purples (light winds aloft). Today's forecast brings some reality; blues, greens and a few reds with pockets of light winds. This is quite a change. Conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic basin now. Maybe next week! I think JB needs to look at the sat pix, not just the models. Cheers!! Steve H.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2147 - Fri Aug 23 2002 10:53 PM

I can remember 10 years ago tonight, the waiting and wondering for daybreak to arrive and what we would see in South Florida. I was lucky to be some 65 miles from the center of the eye, winds only reached 65 mph instead of 165 mph at my house.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
A FINE LINE
      #2148 - Fri Aug 23 2002 11:18 PM

There is a fine line that divides my own mind and thoughts when it comes to my interest and fascination of tropical storms, yet the devastation that one can bring will change your life forever. I know if I experienced an Andrew I probably would not ever want to see another.
The question was asked earlier, ARE WE COMPLACENT? I think that most of us are. Many residents in my area of W Central Florida thinks they have been in a hurricane, when all they have experienced is a strong tropical breeze. HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS can never be talked about enough in my opinion. Our local Emergency Management has a great list of things for you to do to help you prepare, but my concern is that most people just go thru the motion of gathering supplies and not really have a workable plan.I'll use myself as an example, Elena in '85 was approaching the W Central Coast line. I stood in long lines just like I thought I should do and got my 3 gallons of water and a loaf of bread just like I was told to do.Oh, by the way I had a 2 litter bottle of water for my dog. The point that I am trying to make is that I really had NO CLUE AS TO WHAT WAS LURKING OUT THERE. We were fortunate Elena moved away. I think, and I hope that I am a little more prepared today than I was back then. That's why I love all this information. THANK YOU AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK GUYS!
TONI


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Wave at 41W
      #2149 - Sat Aug 24 2002 04:29 AM

Interesting that the wave around 41W is accompanied by some moderate convection and according to the TWD, a swirl near 11n38w. Additionally the wave is tilted to the SW/NE. Apart from this wave there is little in the way of activity across the Atlantic.

Looking at the Central pacific there first homegrown Tropical Depression is set to become a Tropical Storm, probably during today, but is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Rich B

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Anonymous
Unregistered




What I remember about Andrew...
      #2150 - Sat Aug 24 2002 06:31 AM

The devastation in South Florida was all over the news. The setup was just right for a 2nd landfall in Louisiana. We've seen major storms over the years that hit between Miami and The Keys only to curve NW and paste us, and Andrew appeared to be no exception. My oldest was one and a half, and my wife was 5 months pregnant with our second. Local news went to 24 hour coverage, and the state of excitement and a call to action gripped the area. This threat was very real. One of the news channels ran a story on pregnancy and extreme low pressure. Apparently someone had put out a theory (and I have no idea if this is true or not) that there was often a rash of emergency labors duing hurricanes. We called the hospital, but they said not to worry but they'd be open anyway in case we needed them.

My boss told us we had to go into the office that morning and work for 2 hours getting things prepared. I was adamantly opposed to this, but agreed to come in an hour earlier if I could get off at 9 and take care of my own business. He agreed. I was living in New Orleans East at the time, but I worked in Kenner. I woke up early, put on TWC and looked at the radar. The fringe bands were just off the coast and had been for several hours prior. So I cruised on out to Kenner and helped take all the computers off the desks, put their dust covers on and move them into the hallways. The building I worked in, Xerox Centre, was an all glass building and untested. So getting our equipment secured was essential.

I left work and stopped by my friend Eric's house. He worked for a local bank and was occupying one of their repossessions at the time. It was a 7,500sf, 2-story, concrete and brick office building with an apartment. All the old gang had started showing up, so I drank a beer with them and headed home to deal with my family. The wife and I decided we would ride the storm out at my dad's house, and I also needed to help my parents get all their loose items secured. I already had a bunch of supplies because I hit the stores before the rush, so we were in good shape. I locked up my dogs in the laundry room where they would be safe, packed up the supplies and the diaper bag and headed out to mom and dad's. We hung out with my dad, but nothing really materialized. We got some wind and a little rain, but it wasn't that big of a deal. We decided to head back home where my wife could be a little more comfortable and less irritated. We got home and the electric wires were arking, and transformers were blowing. The winds were 30, gusting to 45, so the whole night sky was filled with eerie blue light. In my dad's neighborhood, the power lines are all underground, so this was a slight change. There were a few downed limbs in the neighborhood, but it wasn't that bad. I drank a few brews and fell asleep. I woke up early the next morning figuring that I was going to have to go to work and put everything back together. I got up assuming Andrew was over and another boring storm had come but missed the city. Much to my surprise, I opened the door and looked outside and the wind was howling. Gusts were in the 50's, and all the trees were blowing wildly. I let out a great sigh of relief and decided to screw work. I tried to call in, but no one was there. I tried again at 10:30 but still no answer. Screw work, it was time for a few brews. The remainder of that day was spent on my porch, watching news, and driving around looking at downed trees, damaged property and the like. Every now and then a squall would blow through with clouds racing across the sky and winds blowing 40-50+ mph. I went and visited a couple of friends to check on them, and everything was cool. People weren't as lucky in St. Mary, Lower Terrebonne and Lafouche Parishes to our SW, but we had dodged a major bullet. Just 15 miles west of Kenner in the town of Laplace (just off the SW corner of Lake Pontchartrain), a tornado had touched down in a neighbohood killing several people. That was the worst the area saw, but the city was spared. I got 2 bonus holidays and another tropical experience.

Steve


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2152 - Sat Aug 24 2002 09:15 AM

From the 3:30 am marine weather discussion:

IN THE TROPICS THE AVN MODEL BEGINS TO RECOGNIZE WAVES DAY 4 E
OF THE ISLANDS AND BY DAY 5 SHOWS A WAVE..NOW ON THE AFRICAN
COAST ADVANCING W TO NEAR 45W. ONE INTERESTING THING SEEN IN THE
AVN RUN IS SURFACE PRESSURES DECREASING DAY 5 WITH THE MODEL
DEPICTING A 1012 MB LINE ADVANCING NORTHWARD TO 18N..A GOOD
INDICATOR OF A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT.










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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2153 - Sat Aug 24 2002 10:14 AM

Ahhh....nice and quiet!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND IN FACT...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




one week
      #2154 - Sat Aug 24 2002 03:26 PM

i'm surprised nothing has formed yet. still think fausto in the eastpac is a precursor to the atlantic coming alive, sometime over the next few days. 40w wave looks ok, not great. couple of areas at the edge of the subtropics.. what with traveling the last few days i cant really trace the entire evolution of what i see out there now. sort of expect trouble to start next week. thats climo talking as much as anything else. only another week left in august.. dont expect to make it through without more systems developing.
HF navarre, fl 1924z24august


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troy
Unregistered




Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew
      #2156 - Sat Aug 24 2002 06:14 PM

the east at about 35W is lookin a bit better.

I know most have simply vanished from the sat imaging outthat way lately but with the azore high creeping back to its normal place maybe everything will fall into place


of course the thing that has killed every sytem out there so far has been someone noticing and posting about a positive trend.

troy


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Everything will fall in place for atlantic to pop up
      #2157 - Sat Aug 24 2002 07:41 PM

The MJO factor in it's wet phase is now in the atlantic but it takes a week to see the effects of it in terms of activity.

Also the azores high is in a more normal and that will be another favorable factor.What we have to watch is that upper troughs and upper lows dominate the atlantic as they have done this season putting a cap to the caribbean and parts of the atlanic.

So let's wait and see what the heart of the season will bring.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Maybe Some Changes Coming
      #2159 - Sat Aug 24 2002 10:56 PM

Long period swells showing up from Atlantic Low to the Buoys off the East Central Florida Coast. This week, maybe things will heat up. This from the Melbourne NWS Discussion: THINGS TO GET MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPED
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROUGH MON-TUE AND A WETTER
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FOR OUR AREA AT MID WEEK. STAY TUNED.
At least that the home grown variety that's possible. Central atlantic should get something brewing by mid-week I believe. We'll see. Cheers!! Steve H.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Maybe Some Changes Coming
      #2160 - Sun Aug 25 2002 02:45 AM

that front will not have much tropical affect on fl,,just shifting winds off the gulf and up the chances or rain Monday thru the week. Still I stay with the pattern I mentioned in May and just last topic 4 days ago, nothing imminent thru the week.
scottsvb


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Anonymous
Unregistered




A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...
      #2162 - Sun Aug 25 2002 01:34 PM

It's not too often Joe doesn't have an idea on something, so this is worth posting for that alone if nothing else. But it caught my eye this morning too. System doesn't look great right now. The 30 frame loop of Goes-8 Hurric sector shows the best look to the convection was around 12 last night. There is a lot of shear in the area so I wouldn't expect anything to get excited about soon, if ever.

>>Don't know what to make of the system near central America, except it does not look like it should just shoot west as the newly developping Pacific cyclone did. This looks like a slow north to northwest drift. There is an upper ridge close by. So again we have to see what the 24 hour tendency is for convection and movement is.


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...
      #2163 - Sun Aug 25 2002 02:57 PM

Looks like shear is doing it's thing to the system in the caribbean. will have to wait as you said to see what will happen. I agree with you I don't think it is going to go west, more than likely north and perhaps a little north east. I still have a BIG? regarding the east atlantic. I'm going to give it 2 more weeks. Again a reminder, we did not have our first hurricane until Sept.1 last season and we ended up with a grand total of 9 hurricanes for the season. The CV may be shut down for the season but excessive energy always finds a new route. Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...
      #2164 - Sun Aug 25 2002 03:39 PM

Sorry, got it together now. Didn't know you were still quoting Joe B. in the second paragraph. Just read his daily post. This week should be interesting! Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Will history be made in 2002?
      #2166 - Sun Aug 25 2002 07:07 PM

It may happen because if no hurricanes form in the last days of august then it will be 2 years in a row as in 2001 the first hurricane formed in early september.The last time that happened was in 1922-1923 so let's see what these last days of august brings to see if a hurricane forms but as I see things now I put an 80% chance that history will be made.The only thing that may put a cap to the history may be a wave comming out of africa so let's see what happens in the last days of august.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




stuff
      #2167 - Mon Aug 26 2002 01:07 AM

three areas of interest in the basin.
1. sw caribbean disturbance remains offshore, persistent convection.
2. wave near 45w at very low latitude fairly well defined.
3. n gulf to off the se coast.. mccs pushed offshore brickwalling against the trades and possibly brewing something up.

other than that.. purely amazed. august 26th and still nothing has formed since the sissy storm burst early in the month.
HF tallahassee, fl 0506z26august


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