Anonymous
Unregistered
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why no 1130 am trop. weather outlook from hurricane center. still is showing 530 am one. lyons on dont even mention bahamas system. sure miss john hope on there.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11AM Tropical Outlook - system burped so it missed it earlier
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2002
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY.
THERE ARE DISTINCT AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE OTHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN BOTH AREAS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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why worry about the 11am twd. 5pm should be out anytime now..
HF 2128z28august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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5PM. Someone lit a match in the Atlantic...
ABNT20 KNHC 282125
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2002
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
IN THE AREA...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Looks like I'm well prepared for the test tomorrow, so, lets talk tropics. I saw the 5:30 PM (thanks for posting it) and you said some lit a match off? Comparped to the last few weeks, it looks like someone set a bomb off in the Atlantic! I also see another area for the later tonight, the wave moving off of Africa.
E Atl wave has lost some convection, but they always do this. The wave is going through and organizational phase and convection should explode later tomorrow. I'm also really tired of hearing the persistant bullshit about this wave dying before it reaches the islands. Um, last time I checked, the shear was going to lighten up significantly in the Caribbean by 48 hours, long before the wave ever arrives. The only problem I see is that it will encounter some shear around 45-50W, but I see it overcoming this.
The wave east of Florida should be a slow development candidate by the end of this week. An upper-level ridge is building in and that spells F-A-V-O-R-A-B-L-E.
The area of convection in the Caribbean looks more like a trof of low pressure than a wave, this is probably because of the shear. However, I am beginning to see a very slow development out of this as the ridge builds in.
Kevin 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Here is a link to the tracks...
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropwea/tropmodtracks.htm
I believe that the models won't get a very good handle on this system until it has been classified for a few days. The tracks all seem to have too much of a wnw component in them for such a shallow system and most of them are too slow. Wait a couple of days before any of the models can be deemed reliable with this system. Also, the UKMET now holds the system through 7 days instead of dissipating the system like it did previously. The bottom line: this one will be slow to develop through 72-84 hours, reaching moderate to strong TS strength at that time. After that, the environment should become more favorable for rapid intensification. Despite what some are saying, at least a moderate threat to the islands by the early to mid portion of next week is possible. Things will become more clear as time wears on. Better get some rest...we have some long, fun, and exciting days and nights ahead perhaps.
Kevin
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Alex k
Unregistered
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Ball of convection in the east Atlantic low looks better defined. I will venture to say that this time tomorrow we will be talking about TD4. The wave behind it looks vigorous, too.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Navy moves in what appears to be a weak TS into the Brownsville area in a few days. The only other support I could find was a 1010 low off the FL panhandle showing up on the RUC in 18-24 hours. Apparently this would move west or just south of due west. I'm not going on record predicting anything in the Gulf in the nearterm, but it was interesting in that Texas could get a September hit.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the 00Z ssd analyis of 92L put it at d2.0. thats a 30kt depression, if theyre on the money.
it is a pretty circular little system, just a continuous little mass of convection with a turning in the low cloud field below. if theyre playing this one safe though, i dont mind a great deal. they can always post analyze it and get it right. interested to see if ship reports in the area are confirming the satelite estimates.
other areas in the basin look less imposing at this hour. the convective cycles are still more or less doing what theyve done year round.. active morning and afternoon, dead evening and overnight.
HF 0218z29august
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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this is from a ship about 120 miles ne of what i belive is the center . 03 10.80 -27.70 356 135 140 13.6 29.88 +0.03 79.9 82.8 74.8
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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nhc are now kidding themselves by not calling 92L a depression. sw caribbean feature looks imposing this morning, could just be a trick of convection. some convection returning to the disturbance near 25/65.
today is the day.
HF 1146z29august
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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IT IS TIME >>>> BEEN TO QUITE A SEASON AND WE USUALLY HAVE A LABOR DAY STORM>>
LET'S GET THE SEASON REALLY STARTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Deep convection now forming around the center of the Wave near 9/31, but this rotation still seems elongated from SW to NE. I agree that this is a TD, but not Dolly yet. Still subsidence to it's north, but should improve during the day as moisture is wrapping in around the NE side. Again, good burst of convection near the center, and yes today is the day. Read Joe B's column this morning; don't agree we have a storm yet but will soon. Don't agree either that any development in the bahamas will be at the florida coast on the wave as it pushes into the coast tonight. I do believe that the area near 25N/65W will be the spot to watch, as convection is rebuilding, and this is the persistent area. Again, development may not occur, but I believe Joe is looking at the wrong area. The ridge along the east will collapse as the low over GA backs westward and the ridge axis (bermuda high) noses into the Ga coast this weekend, per discussion. This will keep whatever develops (if) near the Bahamas, not the Carolinas. And again it will move slowly. Cheers! Steve H. PS: Need to keep watching the SW Carib; it may develop, but I have no idea where it might go if it does -- probably get trapped down there for a while...shear has lessened though.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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It's a TD
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home
It is TD#4 and advisorys will begin at 11:00 am.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Funny thing is that I just watched and they don't have a clue! LOL
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The site is having problems...maybe that's why they are still not showing the TD. The Navy site is the only one showing it.
It's curious that the 3AM Marine Discussion in kind of "disqualify" the AVN model with respect to this system:
"...AVN SHOWS TROPICAL LOW NEAR 13N38W DAY 3 BUT WEAKENS IT BY DAY 5
TO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 46W WHICH DOESN'T LOOK RIGHT FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL SHOULD BE DOING A BETTER JOB ON TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS.
Time will tell...
CC
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What about the SW Carrib. It looks far more impressive now than it ever has.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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add another invest, put one up for the sw caribbean system. 25kt/1007mb. however, sat pics have me thinking that a possible SFC low is west of the convection. uncertain.
convection with the 25/65 disturbance is blooming again and still has that fanned look, see if it can get a surface feature going today.
models all have TD 4 screwed up, has been taking it northwest immediately for days. shearing environment after 48hr or so gets sort of iffy. just have to watch and see.
HF 1614z29august
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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were in an interesting place. there are several areas that are looking as if they may sprout us tropical cyclones, and one currently active. the sw carib system persists and looks better defined with time.. has it as a 25kt invest. the disturbance moving west near 25/65 is firing some convection and finally showing a buckling in the low level wind field around it, on a NE/SW axis. there 1011 mb low in the gulf is also set to be a convergence zone and model hints that the low will persist only give it more cause for attention. the fish spinner candidate isnt developing, but retrograding west at 40n to the south of nova scotia (the newfoundland wheel, folks). then also the wave train looks healthy, with the wave at 52w showing signs of life under shear, and the one trailing TD 4 probably carrying a good amount of energy with it.
summary: could get more storms in the next week than we've had so far this season.
by the way, has TD 4 as a 35kt storm now, even though the 2pm ssd fix had it still at 2.0. looks more symmetrical now, so there is some cause to rate it a t.s. will see what the does in an hour or so.
ok, nuff o this. time to go register.
HF (less anonymous) tallahassee fl 1938z29august
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