CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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The first candidate for a cape verde system this year is out way in the east Atlantic. It's persisted quite well during the day, and is good enough for a graph.
Graph for development of Verde System
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*------------]
We'll have some time to watch this one, it'll be the potential first long track of the season. More tomorrow.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well the enviroment is coming into place in the atlantic and the carribean and we will start to see everything come together by the weekend.
Ive stated in many posts how i figured in May we would be slightly below normal with 7-8 storms of which 4-5 will be hurricanes of which 2 will be intense. I also said a couple weeks back nothing will form until labor day weekend and even over a week ago I said factors I look at appear to be around the 2nd with the system moving NE of the windward islands and very close to Puerto Rico and wnw puting up watches and maybe warnings for the Bahamas. I stated only 2 cape verdes will happen this year with the other moving NW and mostly threatening Bermuda but off to the east. I also stated that the carribean will be a factor with a system in early sept, but with el-nino really kicking in from Oct on. I see
the other 2-3 systems forming in the caribean from late sept into early Nov. So the total is 7-8 systems
Now the wave that should be the dolly of the future does have a mid level circulation and could be classified as a DPsoon BUT the enviroment still isnt there yet no matter what you hear. I dont see it becoming much more then that till it gets farther W by the weekend. In fact it might have to be reclassified as a TD or right away to Dolly when they fly a recon into her this weekend. I expect this system to then intensify moving WNW threatning the islands as I posted above. Now as I stated well over a week ago there will be a strong ridge over the mid atlantic states for the weekend into early next week, none mention this to just recently to make sure this will happen. The problem though for Dolly ( if she makes it this far) will be that she will be barely to Puerto Rico by then and to its NE. There will be then a trough breaking up the ridge over the mid atlantic later in the week causing her to scare the Bahamas and head N and NE away from the SE USA,. Of course nothing is set in stone cause the strength of the trough next week isnt well known yet, but this is a better then 50-50 chance.i will post more on this later.,
I also stated at the same time a area in the NW carribean will take shape by the weekend also and could become a player into the gulf. The system should move into Mexico though.
scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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13th invest of the year... 7.2N 22.3W 20kt NAmb.
big problem here is latitude. not ready to jump all over it yet, since its so far south.
but yeah, looks good. will watch.
sw carib and bahamas areas might prove interesting next few days as well.. though not optimistic.
HF 0255z28august
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Model/2002082812.WHXX01
Models show this going ahead and develop and mantaining a west track but with a north component to it.But will it be a hurricane as the ships model says is to early to say but at least it will be a tropical storm.Also it is very early to say if this will affect dieectly the lesser antlles as it is 5-6 days away depending on the movement.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I found my Dolly. Or at least soon. Cycloneye, the guidance models you linked to are for the central Pacific! Ele. But the Atlantic Invest is looking good, with good outflow band developing. Will be Dolly soon. Also, yes and I know Bastardi has been hyping this, but the area east of the Bahamas is looking interesting. Convection building and energy coming in from the NE (with the convection). The east coast really does need to watch this. Cheers!! Steve H. 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Actually if you looked at the entire invest, the Atlantic portion was near the bottom.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Does anyone see the Low Level Swirl south of the Atchafalaya Basin? Looks like TS are building to. Any comments?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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nhc is now saying a tropical depression may be forming sw of the CV. well, look at the page and on the close up visible you can see banding in the low level field, focused right under the convective blow up. the thing has risen in latitude to 9N.. oh and i lost the ssd page with the ratings.. but this one is a go. says 25kt/1008. globals dont have it initialized right, ukmet doing the best job in my opinion. west to wnw... near the islands middle of next week.
twd says surface pressures are falling with both the sw carib and bahama areas. sw carib doesnt look as well, upper trough has been depressing and clearing the area. going to be lots of convergence and some upper support building near the bahamas though, so bastardi is probably going to get his home grown feature.
other stuff: see the stuff south of louisiana.. unimpressive at this point. there has been plenty of convection in the gulf past few days by the upper cutoff over the TN valley, this piece is probably something left from the MCC that ran off tx/la yesterday. the other thing is a possible fish spinner. a convective frontal low along the trough off the NE coast is going to cut off and slow down north of bermuda next couple days before being kicked out. seeing as it already has some convection and will be over marginal water.. yeah, slim chance.
a lot to mention this morning, a lot more going on than has been just lately. 92L is an imminent development threat, and the bahamas area is whispering potential.
by the way, remember my guess that fausto was the precursor to atlantic development in about a week? fausto formed on august 21st, one week ago today. that guess might end up working out..
HF 1535z28august
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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This will be classified as a TD or this afternoon or tonight as it looks more organized at every new pic.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Sorry Cycloneye, Didn't scroll down the Invest page you linked, you were right! HF, good read on the Teleconnection there with Fausto - 1 week. Watching the area around the Bahamas, and there is a cyclonic circulation moving into the area from the NE. Will this be the ingredient Joe has been looking for>?? And tere actually is another LL circulation to the NE of that. May confuse the recipe?? But I think this area needs to be watched, as tonight I pack to camp near the Canaveral Seashore this weekend. OOPS! Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Am I seeing things or is there a circulation between Cuba and Hispanola????
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Caneman
Unregistered
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I don't know about that area but 28N and 62W is sure getting my attention.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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No you're not seeiing things, but that's mainly associated with an ULL just south of Cuba. Watch the Bahamas though. Hey, anyone out there know what the strong Upper Level Low east of Bermuda is forecast to do during the next week??? This would be the downfall of our Cape Verde 'storm'  if it hangs around for a week. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hate to splash a bit of cold water.....there are two circulation centers vying for dominance, one is to the SW and vying for dominance with the invest. Until the centers align or one wins out and the other vanishes, there will be , especially in the low levels, a real inflow conflict. Not to say a TD won't develop, but it will be hindered, possibly halted, if this doesn't clear up.
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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bill.. think i see what youre talking about. that might just be another max on the EW trough that usually hangs off west africa this time of year. it's of note that the rating on 92L has gone up to 1.5 from the last analysis. naw, i dont think the feature to the SW is anything more than a max inside the larger trough envelope... just look at 92L on the vis.. you can see it has its own clear identity within the area. to top it off, both are at very low latitude--the SW feature is really too far down to compete. to compress everything i just said.. i can see how the expected usual impediments enter the mind, but dont think theyll get this one.
the more immediate question right now is what comes out of all that mess from the bahamas east. several possible features could steal the show in the area.. if any do, then we'll probably get something on the doorstep of the SE this weekend. and then models are hinting at a low becoming discrete in the gulf by next week.
then theres the fish spinner possible, and the sw carib disturbance which refuses to fade... and i havent even started on the pacific.
mjo works wonders, doesnt it?
well, there might be a system named hernan running just off the mexican coast next week. some central pac activity (maybe another system near hawaii), and fausto's remnants are moving back into warm waters north of the hawaiian islands... possible rebirth.
another landfalling westpac typhoon too, pretty soon..
gee, thats the whole northern hemisphere.
HF TLH, FL 1846z28august
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Cape Verde wave: First of all, all of the people who are naysaying this type of wave could very well be eating crow in a couple of weeks. Not here...but on other message boards. I take Cape Verde systems very seriously and this one is no exception. Let me state a couple of obs. with this wave:
1. Well organized with plenty of convection.
2. There could be two vorticities with this right now, but as the system becomes better organized it should pull all of it's convection together.
3. It's at a low latitude, so there will not be any type of interference with a w/wnw course at this time.
So that's that. Now onto the future...a bit more uncertain. However, I would like to ask this question: How many of these Cape Verde waves amount to nothing when they develop this far out in August/September? There is not too many. A lot of people on other message boards say this one is a gonner by 40W... not at all true. Those two waves in the western Atlantic that are finally being watched are going to be aided by the upper-level high building into the western Atlantic by late this week. Is this wave going to be excluded from these favorable conditions once it gets further west? Probably not. Steering should be west to west-northwest, as I said. After 84-130 hours, the strength plays a big role in where the system goes. I'm not willing to poke my head at that this early. From some reason I keep thinking of Georges and Bertha similarities with this wave. Also, we should have TD4 with this tonight or early tomorrow.
Here is a good poll... 
That was that...now onto the western Atlantic waves. The one east of the Bahamas has convection right now and has a fair signature on satellite imagery. This is due to westerly shear which can be depicted by clouds blowing off to the east. As mentioned, an upper-level ridge is building in and this could allow for some slow development of this system. Anyone from say...Jupiter, Florida to the Outer Banks of NC should monitor the progress of this system through this week. If this system develops, things could get messy this weekend. Ahhh...not just any weekend, just in time for Labor Day Weekend!
Also...there is a wave moving off of Africa. This one is not as well defined as the previous one. Development should be minimal in the short-term do to the following:
1. Its high in latitude already.
2. Waters are somewhat marginal where it will come off at.
3. Future TD4/Dolly would impede development for awhile, at least.
There are two more games around that are much more important, we may only have to watch this second wave in the long-term, if at all.
Now it's time to hit the books...Spanish test/Biology exam tomorrow. It's always good when things are exciting! 
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I hear what you guys are saying, but in recent loops (I am having trouble with the loops right now) the outflow isn't looking as good. WIll this low suck up the convection to it's SW?? More than likely it is the primary. The banding isn't quite as impressive as this morning though. Bill may have a point as well though. Seems the last few years we've had this competing theme going on; leaves one suspicious. But I'll stay with the bright ball of convection, only because of it's latitude. But then again, that's probably why the models develop it slowly. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Kevin I agree with you on what you said about the 40w thing that people in other boards are saying that is the death of this system.The conditions are going to change slowly in the atlantic to a more favorable one and if this system stays at low latituds then it will escape the shear to the north that is more strong.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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caneman
Unregistered
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Hey Cyclone, wonder is board went down. No post for about 1 to 1-1/2 hours. Boy that system east of Bahamas is really becoming circular. Don't know about dynamics but nice Sat. presentation.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What does that mean if I may ask? Wondering and agree.. a bit worried about the way it seems to have two centers but I don't think they are..think its two centers of convection and one shows signs of wrapping around the other... i think.
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