Anonymous
Unregistered
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Speaking of stupidity..............never mind.............
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troy
Unregistered
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though only slightly, it does appear that the convection may be back on track for the new system yet to be.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html.
-check the 4 previous images to see what i mean-
troy
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troy
Unregistered
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
dont know how that period got in at the end of that link 
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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94L has been edging westward for days, but is about to brickwall against the upper feature over the southeast. steering currents are going to get really week.. any time this happens its safest to bet on the system eventually going north. probably get to within a hundred miles of the florida east coast and then start moving up toward the carolinas. in the weak steering environment and over waters 28-29C, do expect this storm to intensity fairly quickly once it gets going.
dolly is essentially unchanged, moving wnw, firing convection in bursts. expect it to miss NE of the islands, maybe weaken into the open wave as some are suggesting. pretty uncertain how dolly will end up, but i dont see a neat recurvature.. it either dies or gets by the shear and keeps coming.
several globals want to put something in the gulf in a few days.. not that pissant swirl off brownsville.
new emerging wave is well defined, still expect an invest out of it within a day or two.
may be a low pressure area forming off NC coast.. might bring 94L north to it, or develop into a system itself.
upper low SE of bermuda.. some models hint at it developing a SFC feature. will see.
HF 2335z31august
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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LOL.....I just watched Mike Sidell on the WC, and he was so flustered that he could hardly talk. Poor guy...he probably got reamed by the .
Convection is looking better with 94L; still looks like it's moving in a general westward motion. Both NWS discussions from Jax/Melbourne talked about this feature earlier this afternoon, don't know what their current thinking is on this one as of now.
Anyway...it's been interesting, that's for sure.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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troy
Unregistered
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it was probably some intern working the labor day holliday that pulled up the wrong info...  
As for 94L check this link to see what Collen and I have seen
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
check the oldest image(around 6pm) then compare to current. Definate increase in convection
Troy
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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94L can be seen on Melbourne's long range radar loop.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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bust out the link Bruce!!
Im lazy!
troy
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hey Colleen - I agree with you on the movement. Reviewing the latest IR loop, and sometimes the IR loops can be somewhat deceiving, 94L is moving more west than anything else IMO (at least during the past several hours). You guys are right on this one because it could crank up quickly as it approaches the gulf stream. No real significant buoy data on the system yet..
Some strong convection all day also in the southern GOM but looks to be dying off a little tonight, movement appears to be towards the NW and IF it holds together could bring some rain to the northern gulf coast on Monday.
It's early September, the peak of the Hurricane Season, and just like the baseball players.... our little tropical systems have decided not to go on strike either...... stay tuned..
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Anonymous
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
radar Bruce mentioned
i checked the outer bouy at 120miles..pressure there are steady if nout up a tiny bit!? but that really isnt all that close yet to the small 94l.
The swells and seas are holding if not increasing so that may be a sign.
troy
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Check out Dolly? Seems to have two centers? One going North the other West. Input Please. Thanks.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Good radar loop guys.
Radar confirms the general west movement... looks to be due west at the moment... convection holding steady north of the center... radar not seeing the eastern quadrant yet...... small compact little system at the moment... very interesting to say the least...
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Troy
Unregistered
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Speaking of said radar loop. Doesnt it seem to be moving W kinda fast? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
loop i saw ran from 8:35pm through 9:40pm may be a rainy Sunday morning if the trend on radar continues...
Troy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Once again this year Colleen knows more than the . Sorry Colleen, I don't mean to offend you but what are your real credentials here?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Colleen is a long time member here, and although not everyone agrees with everything she has to say, we respect her opinions.
I object to you asking her to defend her "credentials". Who do you think you are, hiding behind anonymous access? We are not all experts here, and don't claim to be.
The does not always do a stellar job (noone is perfect, and this is an imperfect science to start with) and there are times their forecasts are based more on politics and the fear of causing panic, than on reality. Its too bad the past years of posts got lost, because if you went back several years you would see this is a common issue throughout. We all get frustrated with the at times.
We welcome your opinions, but we don't welcome bashing others for theirs.
Bill
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here, here, Bill!
There are very few professionals on these boards. We're here to share opinions, most of which are wrong. Sometimes we're right and get to pat ourselves on the back. Mostly, we're here just to learn. Go bash someone on another board, we don't do that here.
Good to see you again, Colleen! I haven't been around much this year. I hope to be hanging around more the next several weeks. Things are starting to get interesting.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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MelbDave
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: St Petersburg, FL
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Thanks Bill.. We all like Colleen 
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Troy
Unregistered
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Plus if there was ever a dues quota here Coleen has more than fufilled that quota. From the few years i have been coming here she has allways been more than eager to learn.
Plus, I dont really remeber her ( at least in this thread )saying she knew more than the .
anyway..the latest discussion still mentions the chance of 94L becomng an official entity or storm or TD.
Coleen Good- anonymous anticoleen poster Bad
Troy
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well is holding off on TD advisory. Dolly getting ripped by shear and short term doesn't look good. Also impressive wave moving off africa. Note: this is a place where people come to give their opinions. We are not perfect!
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Mitch
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
Loc: Merritt Island, FL
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Funny, local channel 6 from Orlando just said the low east of FL will be heading North towards the Carolinas. I would think they would be giving a message saying "keep watch" just in case. It still looks to moving westward.
Edited by Mitch (Sat Aug 31 2002 11:28 PM)
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