garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Colleen
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Who is Colleen?
I am a graduate student at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado. My advisor is Dr. Bill Gray, hurricane scientist and world-renowned tropical guru. I'm also a meteorological consultant to & . In the summers I work at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
Besides being a major tropical weather enthusiast, I enjoy tennis, volleyball, and listening to 80s music..
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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makes ya wonder if the local news; Central Florida here, gets pressure from different local Chamber of Commerce b/c of the big $ making weekend. kind of like dont tell em till ya have to.
anyway convection still looking good on 94L
found my login info 
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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I am fairly new to this forum, but one thing that I have learned in a short period of time is that our CREDENTIALS on this site is our opinions. Heck, I could have been bashed a long time ago 
Thanks Colleen for all of your opinions!!! (Pinwheel) Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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damnedcat
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Deltona, FL
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A weather newbie here. Can anyone tell me what, if anything, is steering 94L? 
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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YEA, REMEMBER THE MOVIE JAWS!! 
PINWHEEL TONI
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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That's all well and good because I respect what you post. But I don't recall her message directed at all to you. And what Colleen posted today was hardly out of line. She served up a generous, and well earned if I don't mind saying so myself, silce of humble pie.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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In defense of Collen, i know we have not always seen eye to eye, but her posts are always good, and she does know what she is on about! I would hate to see her no longer posting cause of some disagreement!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The african wave that has emerged africa has a 1011 mb at 13n and plenty of convection.Now let's wait and see if this wave will make it all the way into the atlantic behind Dolly that is being sheared apart.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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disturbance near bahamas could rapidly stremgthen looks better and better. wave off africa will also become storm in a few days.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like the storm will crank up today. No shear, convection building and becoming symetrical, warm gulfstream water ahead. Melbourne overnight discussion even mentions threat of rapid intensification possible close to shore on a holiday weekend. STAY AWAKE!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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it could already be a tropical storm. and when it hits gulfsteam look out. rapid strengthning.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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looks pretty healthy.....the bouys in the area indicate dropping pressures..........
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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8:05 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION: A 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N77W MOVING NW 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE LATER THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 29.5N76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.
JUST CHECKED ALL EAST COAST BOUYS AND NONE OF THEM AT THIS TIME SHOW PRESSURE DROPPING, ALL WERE EITHER RISING OR STEADY THE AREA DOES LOOK ALOT BETTER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE THE SPIN THAT IT DID YESTERDAY. OF COURSE WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR RECON TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. 
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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It seems more like its just growing in area covered than actually moving NW at 10kt. Melbourne long range radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
is picking it up nicely now.
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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JUST THOUGHT THIS MAKES FOR SOME INTERESTING READING:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MIA/AFD/MIAAFDMLB.1.txt
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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After seeing loop I have to agree on the more northerly movement as this system approaches land. I'm gonna go with the Carolinas if it touches land at all. I suppose there is that chance of it sitting off the coast and lurking about for a few days as that seems to be the history with this particular area. Guess we have to wait and see.
Tom
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES DUE EAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 7 MPH...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY BY ABOUT 11 AM EDT. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM TODAY IN THE EVENT ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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My. A lot of fussing going on here about me, and I didn't even know about it.
To the Anonymous poster: I do NOT know more than the . I do, however, have 20/20 vision and I can see well. That "broad area of low pressure" that screwed up yesterday is not moving NW, it's moving WEST. All you have to do is look at the horizontal lines to SEE this. However, the is going with models that are, quite literally, all over the place and have absolutely no credibility...some send it north, then east then back south again. As a matter of fact, most of them do. is a mouthpiece for the , and they will say what the wants them to say....to do anything different would not be kosher. Do you remember Irene? had Jim Cantore in Miami and Mike Sidel in Sarasota and who was getting pounded? MIAMI. They put a LOT of people in danger because schools were not closed, workers were not allowed to go home, etc. People were in their cars driving while the winds were howling in Miami and the still had the system headed towards Sarasota. That was a huge blunder, and it was stupid. You can take all the models in the world and put them to work, but if you cannot use your own eyes and your gut instincts, you're in trouble. I don't have any degrees or fancy plaques with my name on them, but there are two things I WILL do: I will admit when I am wrong, and I will tell you exactly why I am thinking the way I am. I However, if I am RIGHT, I will never say, "I told you so," or "Look how good I am" or "I've been predicting this since the beginning of time." blah blah blah.
To the rest of you who defended me while I was completely unaware of this, LOL: thank you all....Steve, Gary B. was just joking, we have been friends for quite some time. He meant no offense, and I didn't take any.
Now, I still see this thing moving towards the west, even though Steve Lyons is saying NW, we'll see what happens. He's not even telling Florida residents to be on the lookout; he's saying the Carolina's. We shall see.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You're right...the thing that worries me the most is that is will be crossing the gulfstream. And if local mets are not mentioning even a hint of a *possible* landfall, and is saying NW and Carolinas..what happens *if* they are wrong?
I think they will classify it at 11. Then again, I thought that last night, too. *grins* 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Whoops! I spoke too soon....glad to see they mentioned Florida in there. Now the question is, is the system going to turn WNW or just keep going west? They've been saying NW for the last day....when it was going west.
Is it possible that this area is getting too close to land to intensify to a strong storm? Or are we (if it heads our way) going to be looking at just a strong TS? I really don't know what will happen if/when it crosses the GS.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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