Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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WTNT35 KNHC 020557
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A CCA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
...CORRECT TO ADD INTERMEDIATE IN HEADER AND TO CHANGE 35 MPH
TO 40 MPH IN REPEAT SECTION...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER A SMALL
AREA EAST OF THE CENTER. THUS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
BECOME TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA.
EDOUARD IS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 6 MPH...AND A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 60 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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ok...my eyes felt a little blurry yesterday... your point?
lol
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Nice to wake up to the E storm.
Can we get some real discussion in here on where we really think its going to go... Not just complaining about the models, would like to hear some real thoughts..
Interesting to see it really did develop and now seems a bit stalled... they love sayin that don't they "the poorly defined center of"
And, who by the way was the first one to call the track a squashed spider.. want to know?
Labor Day Weekend has been more fun than the last few weeks..
Bobbi
ps...hi hurric lol...making this one easy for u
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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That was Stewart in the 5:00 PM discussion describing the tracks of the models yesterday.About the storm for now weak steering will not make it move much so it will meaender around but I think that this storm will not be a cane because the shear will increase in the comming days.
Hi Bobbi I didn't see your name at the bottom so I am here too to talk tropics as always.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Mon Sep 02 2002 08:15 AM)
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Tony
Unregistered
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Check out the latest run on Edouard, takes its across Florida near Jacksonville as a Cat 2 and exits into the Gulf heading west near the coast, reaching Cat 4. I am not saying this will happen, just letting everyone know what the is showing.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Latest vis sat loop on Edouard shows some significant convection developing near the center of circulation to the east... This has occurred during the past hour or so... As for having a poorly defined center... it didn't look all that poorly defined to me on the vis sat loop. Shear is not allowing any convection to develop on the west side of the system.
Last couple of frames has the top of the convection covering some of its center... If anything it might be drifting very slowly to the NNW or N...
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Dana
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Loc: Naples, Fl.
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 ATMOSPHERICATIULOSIS: A psychological and at times physiological disorder associated with small web groups located
in the United States generally, but not restricted to, areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
Acute symptosis tends to peak during the summer months with a rapid decline in late fall
depending on weather conditions. Diagnosis can be difficult in the onset but are readily apparent
as atmospheric conditions complicate and teleconnect. Symptoms vary little between individuals
which experience prophetic observations of satellite information. Some aggressive behavior may
become apparent due to contradictory governmental reporting. Most possess multiple
informational devises to feed their addictive behavior and some zealot staring at their CPU’s
have been reported. Currently there is no cure but it has been advised to keep afflicted
individuals comfortable with an occasional show of sympathy during periods of little tropical
activity. 
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from fernandina
Unregistered
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10:15am here in Fernandina Beach, partly cloudy and very little wind. Yesterday I thought I was going to get my first taste of a tropical storm, today, well it doesn't look like it. The local news stations don't even have much coverage. What is everyone's thoughts?
TH
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Good radar shot of center, not moving at this time.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml
Look at the
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090206-edouard05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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GOM awfully distrubed today too, especially in the northern central section... buoys not indicating anything going on but rain.
After watching more loops on Edouard, I'm not sure if its moving at all... looks to be stationary... hard to pick up any drift direction...still has a very nice signature on sat..... watch out if shear were to let up...
GFDL is always making monsters out of nothing... has done it several times this year, and nothing significant has come to fruition....... yet
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Hi I am Mary K. I am not new to the site, jus have not posted since last season. The storm looks a bit puny. It has the appearance of having two distinct centers of circulation on the dopplar out of Tampa. But, one can see the circulation is quite broad. It is amazing to me that they are bothering to upgrade it. If I had to bet on a landfall (which I don't) I would bet it will go up the coast and end up in Nagshead. The local channel news out of Tampa Bay, does not think we will feel any results from this storm. I tend to agree with him at this point.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Your right about the Frank . But interesting scenario any way.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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I am not happy with the coverage of this storm right now. I know it is just a little tropical storm, but if it were happening in Miami or New Orleans, there would be camera crews all over the place. I just watched the 10:00 update on and it tlaked about the storm for about 30 seconds and the local news acts as if it is just a bunch of rain with no trouble at all. My take on all of it is this. What if it were to turn into another allison and stay stationary over Jacksonville for a few days? We are already drenched from the rain we have recieved over the last week and this is going to bring even more. I work on the local fire dept and we are getting updates on the storm faster than is reporting them. We got the tropical storm warning our news reported it. Wouldn't it be a horrible thing if this storm decided to stay out in the atlantic for a day or so and developed into a hurricane? I think it would catch everyone off guard. I asked like 10 people who surf if they were going to the beach and they said they had not even heard about the storm. Ok, enough of my ranting.......ok, so now it's stationary? now what? I think it is still going to head this way, but that is just me. BTW, nice to see you back colleen!!!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Garyb.... looking at the it suggests that a blocking high will drive the system back to the SW across Florida into the GOM... it strengthens the system significantly, and then it heads off in the general direction of NEW ORLEANS...apparently the trough off to the northeast of the system is not deep enough to pick up the storm ... according to the
Hey Steve, this model should certainly get your attention!!! Guess we better start looking for a SW drift if this is to occur... regardless I have not much confidence in the ... but who knows...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hey Garyb.... the on this system is very interesting and I remember what Elena did back in 1985 when she made a loop in the GOM and busted out butts over here.... all bets are off until this thing starts moving....
Dana, great definition.... I'm sure Colleen will agree with it...
Steve, to early to be sucking dem crawfish heads... where are you and what's your take on the ?
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Gary, funny how you mention surfers. The waves today in Cocoa Beach are much smaller than yesterday. seas and swells at the 41009 bouy are runnin same as yesterday if not a tad bit smaller and shorter periods.
Thats just because of the close proximity to land. Most of us are hopng it pulls north and east so we can be in the fetch window and get some real waves. 
weird storm out there thats for sure.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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I noticed the same type of thing with yesterdasy 12Z run of the gdfl. posted about it on the last news peice. It take sit north then back south.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The 11:00 AM advisory has the system heading SOUTHWEST after 72 hours! This would bring it back towards the EC of Florida! However...the strike probabilites seem to indicate that by Thursday morning the storm MAY BE OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA! This is crazy...nuts...insane!
I would also caution that on the "D" section of the probabilities there is no chance higher than 7 ANYWHERE.
So...we need to keep a watch on this. That's all we can do.
Ed Dunham also mentioned the possibility of Edouard being 75 miles or so off of the Melbourne coast as a minimal hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday. Looks like a possibility, but at least it will be after today (Labor Day).
Yesterday at Daytona Beach it was a little windier than normal with some squally type clouds. That's about it, but even then, something seemed different about the air.
This is the most exciting Labor Day weekend tropic wise we've seen in a while, that's for sure. You should still enjoy it though!
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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foung my original post from yesterday it was the 06Z not 12Z..anyway even then the gdfl had ole eddie moving north to right off NC then back ssw to near GA/SC.
crazy ole troy said
In reply to:
looking at todays 06 run of the gdfl it does show what would be Eduordo moving north eventually at 48 hours at about Little River around the border of N and S Carolinia (33.6n 78.6w) with about cat 1 strenghth then puts him inland for about 8 hours then it kinda moves him south to about the GA SC border just offsore at 96 hours and inland at about 31.8n 81.3w at 102 hours... just noticed the uniqueness in the model path is all
This is the type of thing, if it pans out and heads back, that will really get people off gaurd...
what y'all think about what it will do?
troy
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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GFDL! Are you kidding me?
Mother Nature vs. the I-10?
The "Ultimate Storm"?
Widespread destruction from Lake City to Morgan City?
This is a complete doomsday scenario. Many prophecy fanatics have targeted this Sepetember as the beginning of Armaggedon. I'm not convinced as there have been no real steps toward any peace treaties in Jeruselem. However, if I see a storm that attacks the enitre Gulf Coast, uh, maybe I need to rethink something or other.
I agree that Ed is basically stationary. It appears to show erratic movement in the same general area. I clicked on one of the radar links in this thread which actually showed perhaps a wobble to the SE over the span of that radar loop.
I don't see it crossing FL, but wasn't the only model seeing a high surpressing the convection SW. was doing it the other day as was the AVN.
All in all, it still looks like a fish spinner or perhaps has designs on a liimited brush/landfall somewhere between GA and NC. Problem is the strong trof expected to be near the SE Coast in 48 hours. Ed's position in relation to whatever happens with the trof should be the key to his eventual attack or demise.
As to the Gulf, things are still coming together. I still can't determine if there will be any classified activity by mid-week. The ingredients are in the pot, but the stove is still off. The only hints are the convection and the .07-.15 pressure falls over the last 48 hours. And that was as of the 'wee hours' today. I haven't checked buoys today (NDBC was down when I tried) since I woke back up to see if the trend continues.
I guess I need to get off the "news" and head to the Forum to see what Ed's got to say.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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