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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: This is NUTS!!!
      #2517 - Mon Sep 02 2002 11:38 AM

Kevin, Go to pg.1 and take a look at my post yesterday. I know that I'm really off in what has actually happened so far but I really felt that it would end up in the GOM. Guess only time will tell, it is a wild thought, but I like to live on the wild side every now and then. Pinwheel Toni



--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Tony
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2518 - Mon Sep 02 2002 12:31 PM

CHECK THIS OUT:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
It shows the NHC BAMM model with an almost identical path to the GFDL cutting across north central Florida into the GOM and the BAMD puts landfall south of Daytona Beach. Any thoughts ?


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2519 - Mon Sep 02 2002 12:54 PM

I got an opinion on the models, DON"T pay any attention to them. They are pretty much worthless. Come up with your own opinion of what will happen and it will more than likely be closer to being right than the models will be.

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2520 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:02 PM

does anyone have a link to a graphical display ofthe 2 Bams and the LBAR etc? basically looking for one that is updated when the new runs are out?. thanks

troy

Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 02 2002 01:05 PM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2521 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:12 PM

Joe Bastardi`s noon comment:
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbs


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Tony
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2523 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:20 PM

Shawn S.
I provided the link so other members of this board could visually see the model guidance on this system. I'm sure you heard the old saying,"opinions are like ..." I will not come up with my own "opinion" and you of course are entitled to yours as is everone else. I also believe that the models, NHC and local weather forecasters are not perfect, however I believe it is the best we have. I do not know where this system will end up going, the tropics are full of surprises, as I am sure you are aware of. At least 4 models are taking this system into North Fl or South Ga. The 10am Discussion also mentons this clustering of model guidance. To say all of this is pretty much worthless makes no sense. Do I believe this path into Fl into the GOM 100%? No. Do I believe it is a possibility? Yes, along with all of the other scenarios. However it appears the most favorable at this time based on the models and other factors. Just curious, what is your "opinion" on this storm? If it is morethan likely to be closer to being right than the models, maybe you should inform the NHC. Have a good day !!!!!


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Bastardi even sounds uncertain.
      #2524 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:22 PM

I disagree with Bastardi when he says Florida is out of the woods. That is not hardly true. NHC has this one pegged real well through 24 hours. Basically, the storm will only be able to drift north until the trough passes it. After that, the storm should begin to go west and southwest. It could get as far south as Melbourne and could strengthen to as much as 75-80 knots.

So, all bets are off after 24 hours. My feeling is that the north and central coasts of Florida are going to have an unexpected problem on their hands as early as Wednesday.

Kevin


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2527 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:35 PM

I am now seeing the southward drift everyone else is talking about. I also saw a spin in the Gulf south of Alabama. This could get very interesting. As some already know. I am no meterologist. I am a hobbiest and I do not expect anyone to take me seriously. I just like to observe and guess based on logic and common sense. I do not have an interest in seeing a hurricane make landfall any where it could harm people.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2528 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:41 PM

actually he writes
In reply to:

Same thing for Edouard tomorrow and Wednesday. What is shear on a track north is not if it dances, then turns south then southwest. Florida is not out of the woods yet, in fact after it tip toes northeast to north into tomorrow, the south path is becoming more likely, then perhaps even southwest. Such a path is a deepening path for a storm like this, for the upper shear from the north and northwest is no longer shear for a storm shifting south, if the direction of the storm is the opposite direction. In fact, it really becomes a problem if the jet considerations are such that the storm is in the synoptic scale upward motion max in the jet exit region.




thenlater in his post he writes
In reply to:

Point is, Florida is out of the woods (actually with the current strength, it's not woods but more like a tangled underbrush) until tomorrow, but do not write this off yet.




his writing may jump around inhis writing but it seems he belives it is possible it could track back sw


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Tony,Tony,Tony
      #2529 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:41 PM

Why is it that eveyone else can bash the models and it is ok but when I do it suddenly there is a problem. All I read on this site is how unreliable the models are and " what is everyone at the NHC thinking" , and yet when I decide to express my opinion it's like I'm the only one who feels this way.I have seen alot of people on this site who have done better on these sytems than the models, I guess you were not one of them.If you want to question or bash me for my thoughts than you will have to wait in line just like all the rest. Just kidding. Actually, I have stated many times that my views on tropical storms are elementary at best. I was just trying to make a little humor with the models just like I have seen so many people on this site do before.Relax, throw down a few beers, fire up the grill, and let's see how all this turns out.

You have a nice day,also.

ShawnS


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Tony
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2530 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:44 PM

Kevin,
Thanks for the info. Although we do not know where this will go, I do believe your thoughts have a good possibility of coming true. Just curious as to your thoughts on the graphics link I provided plus I just read on another board that for 2 consecutive runs, the GFS (old MRF) is also showing landfall in the Norht Fl area in about 72 hrs. (in addition to AVN, GFDL, BAMM, and several other models). Thanks !!!!!


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Tony,Tony,Tony
      #2531 - Mon Sep 02 2002 01:54 PM

LOL,

Models, opinions, buttho, nevermind. We all have 'em, wipe 'em and argue 'em.

Bastardi noted that FL was out of the woods in the watch areas FOR NOW. That doesn't mean they will be Wed-Fri if Eddie hangs around for a while. I'm hedging my bet. GA to NC seemed like the ultimate destination, but I'm not so sure anymore. He may die off the east coast of FL, but I'm starting to question whether or not there may be 2 eventual FL landfalls - pensinsula and panhandle.

Edouard is hardly a 'no-brainer' storm. This is one we're going to be talking about all week. I guess something's gotta suffer when the tropics are active. I vote for work and sleep

Steve - having a good day doing NOTHING.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2532 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:03 PM

Based on the latest radar images, could Eddie have already begun the "loop" process? Within the past few hours "he" appears to be taking on more of an east-southeasterly course.

BTW, it's good to back and "see" all the "old" folks again. Enjoy your labor day.......k___g


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2534 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:12 PM

from the melb area 1:45 forecast--
TUE-WED...FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF EDOUARD. 12Z
MODELS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING LITTLE MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CLOCKWISE LOOPING PUSHING IT BACK INTO THE
COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. AVN MIGHT BE A TAD QUICKER IN DOING THIS
COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN.
--

this is what makes tracking these things fun.


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from fernadina
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      #2535 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:13 PM

2pm Labor Day Update-Here in Fernandina it remains partly cloudy, but the wind has definitely picked-up since my last post at 10:15am. I was at the beach at noon to take a look and the waves are running about 3-4 feet from my observation.

Anyone else from the area, if so what are your thoughts?

TH


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Gulf beginning to brew?
      #2536 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:15 PM

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_GOM_vis.jpg

Look due south of the western edge of Lake Pontchartrain maybe 150 miles offshore. If something gets cooking from this 'arc', there's not that much room to develop anything major, but we may be seeing the beginning of development.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
      #2537 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:19 PM

from the 2:30 report from Tallahassee --
MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS. 12Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON LOW WIND SPEEDS BUT
VARY IN DIRECTION. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING
WELL. IN VIEW OF HPC AND NCEP COORDINATED DAY 5 (SUNDAY) POSITION OF
EDOUARD OFF APALACHICOLA...WILL OPT FOR "TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE" FOR LATE SATURDAY.--

hmmmm...


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
      #2538 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:23 PM

http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html

shows the 15z run of NHC with aloop back to the west


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey k_______g
      #2539 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:26 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

This visible loop verifies what you noted about the SE drift at present. The center is cleraly visible and moving SE.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tony
Unregistered




Re: Tony,Tony,Tony
      #2540 - Mon Sep 02 2002 02:27 PM

Steve,
Thanks for your input. I also believe we will betalking aboutthis one all week and also think there is a possibity of 2 Fl landfalls. We know that the tropics are full of surprises, just hope whatever it turns out to be and where it goes, there are no injuries. Have a good day !!!!


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