tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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J. Bastardi, after mounds of explaination still allows for the possibility that Eddy will circle back around thursday and cross central Florida, moving into the Gulf and then possibly forming into a hurricane. With all these details in the science of weather forecasting I find it amazing that my dear old dad could tell me what was gonna happen from his aching back.
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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While Florida has pays close attention to "Ed'. The has started a invest 95L northwest of CV.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Steve, its tryin but its gonna run out of room. Here in Cameron, SW LA winds are out of the ENE steadily increasing about 15-20 now. Low Cloud Deck moving quickly to the South West.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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WTNT35 KNHC 031207
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
...CORRECTED ADVISORY TIME FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM...AND UPDATED POSITION
AND INTENSITY FOR RECENT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...
...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS...STILL STATIONARY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST MAY BEGIN LATER TODAY.
REPORTS JUST RECEIVED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
EDOUARD HAS STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...30.4 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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A surprise for many as Edouard gets stronger as shear is more weak and the center is less exposed.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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I hope the 's forecast track is correct, although I could stand for the intensity to be less than TS when it hits the coast. I was at my parents' yesterday, which is on one of the lakes in central Florida, near Melrose (~20 miles east of Gainesville). Their lake level needs to rise at least five feet to get the water back to the ends of the docks, and another six or so feet above that would be nice. You drive over a bridge and there are signs on it that say, "No Diving"...which is a good idea, considering that the nearest water is hundreds of yards away. Although the lake level there has risen in the past month, it still wouldn't hurt to have a few storms come though and help out. That area of the state is also where some of the aquifers get filled, so their getting a good soaking there will help more than just the locals.
Anyway, I guess it's just sit and see what Eduoard decides to do. Pressure at last report was still 1005, so he's not currently thinking about serious intensification. Hopefully if the westerly flow lets up and permits Ed to start moving towards the coast, he won't have time to get better organized before hitting land.
Chris
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Yes, nice of the to report that the pressure's dropped to 1002 while I'm in the middle of typing a message saying it was last reported at 1005. You know, they need to coordinate these things better...
Chris
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I'm not liking the latest run of the . Especially since it usually overintensifies a system but is already under currents. I have to say that this forecast seems reasonable, sans intensity forecast. I guess it is possible for a Cat 1 before it hits Florida, especially with the current surprise. Central Florida can do witthout anything that strong. Saturated ground conditions would make for a lot more falling tress then usual, not too mention flooding in areas already doing bad. I'm hoping it keeps up in North Central Florida becuase they need the rain. However, The forecast keeps slipping south. :P
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Jim
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If the is right this could be a major major event riding the Gulf Coast all the way to SE TX, SW LA. Wow what a difference a day makes. By the way I believe we ave a depression forming south of vermillion Bay.
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caneman
Unregistered
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Vermillion Bay. Where is that?
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD (AL052002) ON 20020903 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020903 1200 020904 0000 020904 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 78.4W 30.2N 77.5W 29.7N 77.0W
BAMM 30.4N 78.4W 30.1N 78.5W 29.7N 78.9W
A98E 30.4N 78.4W 30.5N 78.3W 30.3N 77.4W
LBAR 30.4N 78.4W 30.3N 78.1W 30.4N 78.1W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS
DSHP 50KTS 58KTS 63KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020905 0000 020905 1200 020906 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 76.8W 29.2N 76.5W 30.0N 76.7W
BAMM 29.3N 79.4W 28.9N 79.9W 28.7N 80.8W
A98E 29.8N 76.3W 29.9N 75.2W 30.3N 72.6W
LBAR 30.4N 78.4W 30.2N 78.5W 30.2N 78.1W
SHIP 66KTS 71KTS 75KTS
DSHP 66KTS 71KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.4N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 78.7W DIRM12 = 103DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 20NM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Vermillion Bay is in central Louisiana
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I feel hurricane watch is coming soon. Flit Level 71 knts.
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