CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Edouard is going to aggrivate us all most of this week while it just meanders willy nilly around our coasts.
Models suggest that it will do a cyclonic loop and head soutwest into North Florida or Georgia. However this won't be for a while. The good news is that there is shear there, and will keep strengthening of the system in check. But the proximity will cause it to remain a concern even in Central Florida for a while. In fact, the tropical storm watch still remains in effect north of Titusville into South Carolina.
The North Central Gulf, right now, is not favorible for development, but soon this may change as well. I don't think much will come of that one personally, but again proximity to land makes us keep watch on it.
Melbourne Radar - Long Range
Jacksonville Radar - Long Range
Dolly still is a fish spinner.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
shows it(edouard) doing the northern loop but moving toward land a bit further south than N Florida/S Georgia
that kind of path would not be good for the shoreline along Flagler Beach. A1A along there is so close to washing out.
troy
Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 02 2002 10:05 PM)
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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do you really think something can get going out there? I have my doubts but if you think that it could happen than that is good enough for me. I just think it is one of those situations,again, where there is just not enough time for it to pop because of its closeness to land. Also, the actvity will more than likely die off overnight and it would have to go through the whole process of reforming tomorrow. There isn't enough time for it to keep doing that.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
someone else take a look at the long range loop and see if looks like it has abit of a south to that east movemnet.
what i was basing it on was the ball of stronger converction that is moving just a hair south of E
troy
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>do you really think something can get going out there? I have my doubts but if you think that it could happen than that is good enough for me. I just think it is one of those situations,again, where there is just not enough time for it to pop because of its closeness to land. Also, the actvity will more than likely die off overnight and it would have to go through the whole process of reforming tomorrow. There isn't enough time for it to keep doing that.
I agree with you about the proximity of land and timing issues, but there will still be something on the surface map by Wed. morning. Whether it's a capital "L" or the smaller, fat one they use for depressions remains to be seen. So it either comes ashore as a TD or it's another wasted landfall for LA/TX (that would be 3 so far this year).
We're supposed to get our fair share of precip tomorrow. Most of the rain today has been south of the city, but still sporadic. At least it LOOKS good with the banding and circular look to everything. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in TX get 5-10" of rain by Friday. The threat lessens if all of the moisture rides into Louisiana Tomorrow.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Well this storm has made everyone guessing including the folks of the .The steering corrents are light so it wont move much maybe looping around.
Today Dr Grays final 2002 report came out and he again downgraded his forecast to 8/3/1 because he says that el nino will be a key factor as it is going to be moderate he says.The whole report you can read it and judge for yourself if you agre or disagree with it by the way here is the link to his forecast.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/sep2002/
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The page doesn't even show an invest on the activity in the gulf yet. That should tell us something about the chances of it doing anything.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
models starting to look like a squashed spider again...
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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So let's say that ED wants to take a trip farther into the Atlantic as some of the models are indicating. What could be the end result?
Give me something to think about guys! At this point the Atlantic sounds better than pointing directly at me. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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trying to figure out what edouard is going to do is sort of a pot shot. the depth of the storm at any particular time, paired with dry air entrainment and subtle changes in the flow around the storm are tough call variables.. but the consensus has center more around a looping meander for the meanwhile and then back to the west. this i can buy. however, with the slow movement shear and upwelling will be the big threats to the storm here. hard to see much intensification, unless the is for once seeing and not exaggerating wildly.
back towards the coast somewhere between brunswick and daytona seems reasonable enough, though i realize this is around 150 miles of coastline, and the storm is only 200 or so away. hit timetable is within 12 hours of 9pm thursday, best guess. intensity 50 to 60kt. should the storm drop sw then it could be much stronger... though seems less likely at this point.
upstream changes are another concern. the disturbance south of louisiana has ridging aloft aided by the upper low to its SW, and an exit jet going straight at edouard. this jet is all that stands between edouard and the coast, as it is keeping the storm checked. should the gulf system try to develop this jet could consequently further impede edouard. bastardi sees some potential here, though it lacks concentrated deep convection. might try some late hour development off the texas coast tomorrow or wednesday.
still not as convinced of dolly's neat recurvature as others, think that the shear will decouple the system. the inter-trough disturbed weather to the north near bermuda is looking lively, by the way, as models earlier forecast. dead dolly may mean another live system up there.
the summer noreaster off jersey would be a tropical storm had it developed faster. if it develops a deep convection core maybe a subtrop.
invest came on the system that emerged from africa, but d numbers have dropped. wasnt showing this invest, but ssd had it pegged. convection went out the door though, so no early development here. system out ahead at 35w doesnt look as good either, but may try something just east of the islands in dolly's wake in just a couple of days. whatever comes behind dolly is going to be trouble.
whatever happened to the carib wave, i wonder. lost its mojo, not looking feisty at all. just have to monitor for it possibly coming back.
HF TLH 0012z03september
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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I think its a crapshoot trying to guess Ed's movements. Happy to have something of interest to be tracking this weekend.
At this time experiencing strong Thunderstorm with heavy rain, gusty winds, and some wicked Litening.
I am in Port St. Lucie which is just south of Fort PIerce on this radar link from Melbourne.
The squall line extends NE up to Ed. Thinking this will be about the most We'll be seeing of him down this way.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
Happy tracking
Hurric
Edited by Hurric (Tue Sep 03 2002 12:43 AM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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How much should we read into the , is Palm Coast in Eds path?
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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add another mitigator: subsidence. the upper shortwave has gone by to the north, but the dry air slot following the upper trough is going to choke edouard while shear smears it. there is a lot of subsidence, by the way. even if this doesnt kill edouard outright, will probably push the storm east a good bit. after a day or so things should get better.
HF 0207z03september
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Alan
Unregistered
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Now the is having it enter north of Jacksonville, Exiting around Appalachacola and then moving west about 50-100 miles off shore.
In other words, only the shadow knows.
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Alan
Unregistered
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And while the switches North, the moves it slightly south.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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18z most ominous to date. I'm dying to see what it's gonna do tomorrow.
Steve
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thinking maybe the center will have to work its way south for the storm to survive, kinda develop towards where the convection can stablilize it. there is a narrow ridge axis not 200 miles south of the current position... thats the only fix i see for edouard. so yeah, florida problem or nobody's problem.
pesky area between the yucatan and louisiana might become a home grown problem by wednesday.
HF 0405z03september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/video_index.asp
Click on the "Dance of Edouard" by Bastardi. Food for thought. Neither did I get my original Gulf idea from this week from Bastardi nor did I get the 2x FL Landfall potential from . Calls out the ether. Anyway, this one is for us. We get left out all the time, but the presentation of this video should remind us all that we need to watch. The Gulf is ripe if anything is there.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I know you explained this to me once, but you're at , right? My younger brother is a grad of . Our whole family are Noles fans. Tally is a cool place. There are all kinds of 1-3 hour MUST road cruises. Itchatucknee Springs, Lake Seminole, St. George.
Don't I wish.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ed is a bit more menacing tihs morning. TPC has taken a N jog out of the official forecast and brings Ed over NE or C FL as a TS about the same intensity. New run continues trend of dual landfall.
Gulf looks better than ever. It almost looks baroclinical in the way the convection is coming into LA, but I don't think it rained much here overnight. In any event, trend for increase continues. I still am thinking "L" on the map by tomorrow, and probably a few inches of rain in parts of TX. Maybe 2-3 in some parts of LA today. NDBC is down at the moment, and I haven't checked the NWS radar to see what's actually happening in the way of precip.
Steve
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