StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks to me like the convection is pulling back to the center over the last couple of hours. Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but Eddie is looking better to me.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I want to know where we are suppose to get all this rain from in this area. All the action in the gulf is going to the north and northeast. All I keep hearing is how all this stuff is suppose to come our way. Well, I'm still waiting. What a bunch of crap.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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One more thing, this stuff about Ediie coming into the gulf and re-developing is a bunch of hog wash. He will eventually die out and never get close to doing what the models are saying he will do. This is just my opinion, so don't start with the questions. Something weird is happening that is causing all these systems to just fall apart. I have been following hurricanes for about 10 years and I have never seen it where just about all of the storms that form just fall apart before they can do anything.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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He looks better on radar : http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kmlb.shtml
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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This year does not seem too odd to me. A lot of these storms remind me of last year, or was it the year before, when all of the LLC's just took off in a different direction then the upper level flows from shear and killed themselves.
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Jim
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Just saw WFTV, channel 9's, doppler out of Orlando. SHowing some pretty interesting storm development with a lot of lightning gathering around the east and north of the circulation. Could be interesting if the trend continues through the night.
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Jim
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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melb long range picks it up. seems to be a slight bit of wsw movement again. But, that is just with me guessing that what looks like the center, is the center.
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Alan
Unregistered
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Another thing Channel 9 pointed out was that there is more rain on the west side than they've seen from Eddie.
They seemed to indicate it was a sign that he may possibly be pulling together.
On Fox, the guy talked about the dry air disappearing as the system in gulf started pushing more moisture in.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I agree, it does look like the convection is growing slightly. Sitting here in Brevard County, I guess it's all up to Eddie. I don't think he's got the guts to hold out, but that's just an opinion. (Actually, I'm praying for that...)Give him to the fishes!!!
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Alan
Unregistered
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He talked again about this sitting there and getting stronger.
"It's something we're closely watching."
He really downplayed the forecast from the .
"The official forecast lowers it to a depression" and that was the only mention of it getting weaker.
He ended the bit with a comparison to Erin, which went over Disney with 45 mph winds, downed lots of trees and lots of rain.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Yes guys, A look at Melbourne NWS radar the last three hours shows rain increasing near center and starting to wrap around. Once again just when things are looking like its time for life support Ed seems to be trying to comeback. You gotta admire a system like this that just keeps hanging on. It aint over till it’s over.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
Hurric
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Wow ED has fighted very hard with the shear and it has survived so far all the callenges thay the shear and also the dry air has been there for him.Now let's wait and see in the morning if it still is there or if it has weaken and also what the movement has been overnight.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Has anyone read the discussion on dolly tonight. They sey a lot of models are now forcasting west turns some heading to nova scotia one made a sharp west turn. Go check it out
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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some of you sound surprised that edouard is throwing convection again.. when this off and on pattern has been going on for quite a while. here's the scoop.. the worst of the dry air entrainment and shear is passed, from here on the synoptic environment around edouard gets better. which means maybe from crappy to marginal. so, watch the intensity bob up and down while edouard does whatever it intends to.. maybe the sw movement most models like, maybe just more quasi-stationary annoying jerks. system is right over the gulf stream, so not thinking upwelling will be a huge factor. highest hit probabilities volusia and brevard counties.. which is really a lot of coastline when you think about it.
robert, youre still thinking about dolly. i am too. thought the system would just keep going west and lose the top.. but there was enough depth to get it moving northward. now it's opening up over time, the center is jumping around and what. the upper air trough ahead is quite complex, and dolly isnt as nicely defined as models are making it.. so with the poor initialization, dont expect them to get much right. might open up or get sucked into a deep layer storm, as some globals are hinting. im not sure if this teleconnection is real, but in the mid pacific typhoon ele is turning northwestward at fairly high latitude.. makes me wonder if it might be hinting on some sneak attack dolly has planned.
95L. it took the northerly path from the cape verde islands, now around 19/32. convection is refiring in spite of the fact SSTs are around 25C underneath. the upper trough in dolly's wake will give way to ridging in its path, and SSTs steadily pick up ahead.. so i expect this system to linger and develop.
two other areas of great uncertainty. disturbed weather persists in the gulf, with the upper ridge in place. near the coast the quick developer convection candidates are getting sheared, but between the yucatan and lousiana convection is just bubbling and not getting shredded. still bears watching.
southwest/south of 95L is another small circulation with convection firing around and nearby, and a big burst just lately right behind. earlier today i could see it on visibles, but nothing on the IR tonight and shortwave IR doesnt go that far out.. so i'm stuck wondering what is happening at the surface down there. highly questionable due to uncertainty and proximity to disturbance 95L.
think that covers all the bases. peace everybody.
HF 0426z04september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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lookin at the current WV image, it appears that some guld moisture may be filling into the dry air. On the loop when some ofthe moisture starts to fill in form the gulf though stil a ways away from Ed, the convections with him starts back up.
Also recent long range loop outof JAX (1:10 through 2:00) shows a bit just a bit of west in his staionaryness
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like convection is starting to increase on the southern and western sides. System also looks more symetrical this morning. Bands are just offshore now. He is definitely moving now towards the coast. The gulf stream is just ahead, will have to keep an eye out all day today.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Eddie certainly looks more organized this morning than he did last night. It doesn't look like he'll have too much time to strengthen, but I don't see him weakening to a TD before landfall. The path over Central Florida seems like the only one now. With the convection wrapping around again, the coast will start getting rain soon.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It was raining and a bit windy this morning when I left the coast. The ocean is quite rough too. It'll be interesting to take the trek back to the coast from Orlando this evening.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If there is one thing that can be said about this season, it is that there have been plenty of things to watch throughout. This morning is no exception. Convection now firing up again in the Gulf except now it's under an upper high. Don't know what this means for intensification. AVN is most ominous with a developing storm (possibly cannibalizing Edouard?) more or less stationary off the TX Coast. AVN gives it 3 concentric rings at one point which I'm assuming is its representation of a strong TS or Cat-1 type of system. All along I expected some type of TX landfall today or tomorrow and stuck with an "L" being on the map. Well the "L" is finally there this morning. It's kind of hard to tell where it actually is because there is low pressure off the central TX Coast extending up to south of the Morgan City area. Looks like some of the associated moisture will be coming in in SW and SC LA today - possible heavy amounts in isolated spots.
Edouard is still nudging toward the W or WSW, but appears to be almost stationary. Even shortwave doesn't tell the story of where the eye is, so I'll be looking forward to the first visible loop sometime after 10:30 this morning. I don't have the slightest clue what Edouard is going to do. The same ideas that have been floating around the web for the last 4 days remain. Will it cross FL and head into the Gulf? and other models still insisting. Will it meander south and stall off the Central FL coast or perhaps somewhat inland north of Miami? Will it take off in one of the northerly directions in a couple of days? Who knows? I sure don't.
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Steve, I have to admit, the extreme nothwest gulf looks pretty scary right now. It looks like it is trying to perform a quick wrap up just right off the coast. I still don't think it will happen BUT it is certainly possible, I GUESS?!?!
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