CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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This will be updated during the day as more information on Edouard is made available.
5PM Update
Edouard has weakened a bit more, and jogged south a bit. Tropical Storm Watches are again up North of Titusville.
3PM Update
Edouard has begun its move to the west southwest, slowly. Shear is still taking its toll as much of the convection is away from the center. It is weaker than it was earlier in the day.
11AM Update
Edouard has strengthened to 65MPH. However, no more strengthening is expected today (perhaps even weakening) We'll watch in case this doesn't happen. The Tropical Storm watch may be re-extended southward later today.
10:30AM Update
Currently, Eduoard is forecast to meander a bit more and eventually turn toward the Southwest making landfall Thursday somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville and exit into the Gulf of Mexico. This could change, so check back frequently, and of course monitor local media and official sources for information.
This morning Edouard has strengthened a bit, but still it remains under heavy shear. If it manages to escape the jet that would cause the shear then more strengthening is possible. All of us along the East Central and North Florida coast need to monitor it. It could be a rain event for us, or more depending on today and tomorrow.
This run of the is from this morning and shows one of the possible paths.
If you have a question, an observation, or otherwise anything else helpful for others regarding the situation, please use the comment link and let everyone know.
Melbourne Radar - Long Range
Jacksonville Radar - Long Range
Dolly still is a fish spinner. And another system has emerged off Africa that looks very impressive and will be a long tracker I believe.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com] and - [mike@flhurricane.com]
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
30.0N 79.0W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2
29.8N 80.0W 35 X X X 35 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2
29.2N 81.0W 14 4 2 2 22 KEY WEST FL X X 2 4 6
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 5 5 11
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 2 6 5 13
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL X 3 6 5 14
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 1 5 6 4 16
MYGF 266N 787W X 2 2 4 8 CEDAR KEY FL 1 6 6 4 17
MARATHON FL X X 2 4 6 ST MARKS FL X 2 7 6 15
MIAMI FL X 1 3 4 8 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 8 13
W PALM BEACH FL 1 3 4 3 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 8 11
FT PIERCE FL 4 5 3 3 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL 8 5 3 2 18 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
DAYTONA BEACH FL 13 4 3 1 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL 11 6 3 2 22 BURAS LA X X X 3 3
SAVANNAH GA 9 7 3 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC 9 6 3 1 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 8 13
MYRTLE BEACH SC 3 7 2 2 14 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 7 8
WILMINGTON NC X 4 2 3 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 1 3 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Edouard is looking pretty ragged now on the visible. I'm surprised it picked up strength. I wonder if it just blowing itself out and will die away. This is an odd one.
--------------------
Jim
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Latest visible shows a tiny burst of convection right over the LLC. This is a very interesting storm. Also looks like a southwest drift has begun.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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this animated sat pic seem sto show a movemnet to the s-sw
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxVisSatellite.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Troy2... sat pix definitely shows movement to SSW... interesting... also convection looks a little better on the last frame or two... who knows, maybe the is finally going to get something right this year... It did predict the SSW movement... stay tuned...
Hey Steve, maybe this is the big one for New Orleans.... at least that's what the is trying to predict for ya....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I estimate the center of Edouard to be at 30.16 N and 78.96 W... drifting off to the SSW. This could be the beginning of its projected SW movement... System is pretty much exposed on all sides now with little if any really deep convection near its center...(except that area being shear east of the system) ... amazing little system with a great LLC signature... very persistent.... no telling what this thing could have done without all the shear its been fighting...
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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1:20 PM 9/3/02
You have to admire Ed as he continues his Battle with shear and waits for a chance to really start wrapping up. Tail trailing off to SW ready to begin pumping moisture into him given any chance at all.
Already he has made Hurricane history with the addition of the term "Squashed Spider" to the lexicon. This term will not go away.
And speaking of going away, I think this ones going to keep us hanging for next few days at least. Saying any more than that would be pure speculation...anything goes at this point....and I'd rather hear that from others.
Those new to this site might want to check forum area for some excellent posts.
Later
Hurric
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looking at the latest vis loop it appears to me that Ed is actually moving more off to the west southwest (WSW). Looks to be more than just a drift too... Initially I detected a SSW motion but the more recent loops I reviewed has convinced me he's going WSW....
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 78.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL0502
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2002 30.3N 78.5W MODERATE
00UTC 04.09.2002 30.2N 78.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2002 29.7N 79.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2002 29.5N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2002 28.9N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2002 28.8N 79.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2002 28.6N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2002 28.7N 78.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2002 29.3N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2002 29.4N 77.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2002 31.2N 76.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2002 31.9N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2002 33.3N 71.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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That's the eventual SE and out to sea track, certainly a possibility. I think it's less than 50/50.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 031743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
...EDOUARD BEGINS TO MOVE...BUT WEAKENS A BIT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA.
EDOUARD HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH.
A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THIS MORNING
HAS ENDED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE DECREASING NOW AND ARE NEAR
60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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URNT12 KNHC 031702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1702Z
B. 30 DEG 01 MIN N
78 DEG 57 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 140 DEG 111 NM
F. 184 DEG 30 KT
G. 142 DEG 079 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 24 C/ 348 M
J. 24 C/ 363 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 0705A EDOUARD OB 15
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 1337Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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System seems to be in th heaviest wind shear of the last few days. It will have to slide south another 40 miles to get out of it from the looks of it. If it doesn't start a more southerly trek, I think the shear will rip this system apart in the next 24-48 hours.
--------------------
Jim
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Hope this works, it was copied from a post last year about what the vortex data means. Dissreguard the values as they are not relative to this storm.
A) It was taken at 1515Z (10:15 CDT).
B) Is the center position report
C) Minimum pressure height (Not Available in this report)
D) Maximum ESTIMATED surface wind (40kts)
E) Max surface wind position from storm center.
F) Max Flight level wind direction and speed
G) Max Flight level wind position from storm center
H) Minimum central pressure
I) Max flight level temp/Pressure altitude (in meters) outside the center
J) Max flight level temp/Pressure altitude (in meters) inside the center
K) Dewpoint/Sea surface temp in storm center
L) Eye character (if eye is present)
M) Eye shape and diameter (if present)
N) Confirmation of lat/lon/time fix
O) Fix determination by (encoded)
P) Nav fix accuracy in nautical miles
Q) remarks
Hot dang!!! I have contributed something worthwhile
Andy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think it already has been shorn apart. The major convection is practically disassociated with the LLC. There are only a couple of rain bands (one onshore btw) with Edouard. We'll have to wait to see if he can re-fire some storms. He's been pulsing a few times per day, so it is possible he may try again this afternoon or evening.
Steve
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD (AL052002) ON 20020903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020903 1800 020904 0600 020904 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 79.1W 29.2N 79.2W 28.3N 79.6W
BAMM 30.0N 79.1W 29.7N 79.8W 29.2N 80.6W
A98E 30.0N 79.1W 29.4N 80.2W 28.7N 80.2W
LBAR 30.0N 79.1W 29.5N 79.5W 29.2N 80.3W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020905 0600 020905 1800 020906 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.4N 79.8W 26.5N 79.9W 25.5N 79.7W
BAMM 28.7N 81.4W 28.2N 82.2W 27.5N 83.8W
A98E 27.9N 79.4W 27.2N 78.4W 25.6N 76.6W
LBAR 28.9N 81.2W 28.8N 82.3W 29.1N 84.5W
SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 60KTS 35KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 79.1W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 78.6W DIRM12 = 111DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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The further south as has been the case over labor day holiday the better for storm. Its sitting in northwesrly shear of 20-25 kts. A tad further south say 28-29n shear lets up a bit. Do believe it will reflare this evening as has been the case for last few days now. Future landfall will be somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach. As far as how strong or what it is at that point is all up to how far south he gets.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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edouard has lost its convective burst from this morning and will have to throw more if it is to stabilize. sw movement is very slow and not really complicating the shear.. probably going to lessen as the system loses latitude. think the 65mph is a little overzealous, as without convection edouard wont sustain such a strength. has the look of a 50mph tropical storm under shear.
dolly seems to be moving nne today. really going with the flow. recurvature pretty definite, not going to break out and run west convectionless.
three well defined swirls, one near 35w moving slowly w, two near 20w, the stronger one at 18n the weaker at 12n. the 18n swirl is invest 95L, but moving west over cool water.
the close proximity of all of these is going to make the development of the next storm rather confused, but probably have a storm develop out of all this.
nw gulf has a pretty broad SFC low which isnt moving much under that southerly jet.. good divergence aloft. could still get a late developer out of this.
troughiness in the central atlantic not developing as far as i can tell, but avn and a couple of other models suggest a low between bermuda and the bahamas in the next amplification wake by the weekend.
HF 1800z03september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like the models are clustering around 2 ideas now. 1) SW drift and into the Gulf; 2) SW drift and then SE and out to sea (possible landfall brush on the central peninsula). is leading idea 1 and UKMET is leading idea 2.
In any event, center now south of 30N as evidenced on the NOAA Visible "still' shot.
Steve
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